Bill-Gates2010TED演讲稿

BillGates2010年TED演讲稿I'mgoingtotalktodayaboutenergyandclimate.Andthatmightseemabitsurprisingbecausemyfull-timeworkatthefoundationismostlyaboutvaccinesandseeds,aboutthethingsthatweneedtoinventanddelivertohelpthepooresttwobillionlivebetterlives.Butenergyandclimateareextremelyimportanttothesepeople,infact,moreimportantthantoanyoneelseontheplanet.Theclimategettingworse,meansthatmanyyearstheircropswon'tgrow.Therewillbetoomuchrain,notenoughrain.Thingswillchangeinwaysthattheirfragileenvironmentsimplycan'tsupport.Andthatleadstostarvation.Itleadstouncertainty.Itleadstounrest.So,theclimatechangeswillbeterribleforthem.Also,thepriceofenergyisveryimportanttothem.Infact,ifyoucouldpickjustonethingtolowerthepriceof,toreducepoverty,byfar,youwouldpickenergy.Now,thepriceofenergyhascomedownovertime.Really,advancedcivilizationisbasedonadvancesinenergy.Thecoalrevolutionfueledtheindustrialrevolution,and,eveninthe1900'swe'veseenaveryrapiddeclineinthepriceofelectricity,andthat'swhywehaverefrigerators,air-conditioning,wecanmakemodernmaterialsanddosomanythings.Andso,we'reinawonderfulsituationwithelectricityintherichworld.But,aswemakeitcheaper--andlet'sgoformakingittwiceascheap--weneedtomeetanewconstraint,andthatconstrainthastodowithCO2.CO2iswarmingtheplanet,andtheequationonCO2isactuallyaverystraightforwardone.IfyousumuptheCO2thatgetsemitted,thatleadstoatemperatureincrease,andthattemperatureincreaseleadstosomeverynegativeeffects.Theeffectsontheweatherand,perhapsworse,theindirecteffects,inthatthenaturalecosystemscan'tadjusttotheserapidchanges,andsoyougetecosystemcollapses.Now,theexactamountofhowyoumapfromacertainincreaseofCO2towhattemperaturewillbeandwherethepositivefeedbacksare,there'ssomeuncertaintythere,butnotverymuch.Andthere'scertainlyuncertaintyabouthowbadthoseeffectswillbe,buttheywillbeextremelybad.Iaskedthetopscientistsonthisseveraltimes,dowereallyhavetogetdowntonearzero?Can'twejustcutitinhalforaquarter?Andtheansweristhat,untilwegetneartozero,thetemperaturewillcontinuetorise.Andsothat'sabigchallenge.It'sverydifferentthansayingwe'rea12fthightrucktryingtogetundera10ftbridge,andwecanjustsortofsqueezeunder.Thisissomethingthathastogettozero.Now,weputoutalotofcarbondioxideeveryyear,over26billiontons.ForeachAmerican,it'sabout20tons.Forpeopleinpoorcountries,it'slessthanoneton.It'sanaverageofaboutfivetonsforeveryoneontheplanet.And,somehow,wehavetomakechangesthatwillbringthatdowntozero.It'sbeenconstantlygoingup.It'sonlyvariouseconomicchangesthathaveevenflatteneditatall,sowehavetogofromrapidlyrisingtofalling,andfallingallthewaytozero.Thisequationhasfourfactors.Alittlebitofmultiplication.So,you'vegotathingontheleft,CO2,thatyouwanttogettozero,andthat'sgoingtobebasedonthenumberofpeople,theserviceseachperson'susingonaverage,theenergyonaverageforeachservice,andtheCO2beingputoutperunitofenergy.So,let'slookateachoneoftheseandseehowwecangetthisdowntozero.Probably,oneofthesenumbersisgoingtohavetogetprettyneartozero.Nowthat'sbackfromhighschoolalgebra,butlet'stakealook.Firstwe'vegotpopulation.Now,theworldtodayhas6.8billionpeople.That'sheadeduptoaboutninebillion.Now,ifwedoareallygreatjobonnewvaccines,healthcare,reproductivehealthservices,wecouldlowerthatby,perhaps,10or15percent,butthereweseeanincreaseofabout1.3.Thesecondfactoristheservicesweuse.Thisencompasseseverything,thefoodweeat,clothing,TV,heating.Theseareverygoodthings,andgettingridofpovertymeansprovidingtheseservicestoalmosteveryoneontheplanet.Andit'sagreatthingforthisnumbertogoup.Intherichworld,perhapsthetoponebillion,weprobablycouldcutbackanduseless,buteveryyear,thisnumber,onaverage,isgoingtogoup,andso,overall,thatwillmorethandoubletheservicesdeliveredperperson.Herewehaveaverybasicservice.Doyouhavelightinginyourhousetobeabletoreadyourhomework,and,infact,thesekidsdon't,sothey'regoingoutandreadingtheirschoolworkunderthestreetlamps.Now,efficiency,E,theenergyforeachservice,here,finallywehavesomegoodnews.Wehavesomethingthat'snotgoingup.Throughvariousinventionsandnewwaysofdoinglighting,throughdifferenttypesofcars,differentwaysofbuildingbuildings.therearealotofserviceswhereyoucanbringtheenergyforthatservicedownquitesubstantially,someindividualserviceseven,bringitdownby90percent.Thereareotherserviceslikehowwemakefertilizer,orhowwedoairtransport,wheretheroomsforimprovementarefar,farless.Andso,overallhere,ifwe'reoptimistic,wemaygetareductionofafactorofthreetoeven,perhaps,afactorofsix.Butforthesefirstthreefactorsnow,we'vegonefrom26billionto,atbest,maybe13billiontons,andthatjustwon'tcutit.Solet'slookatthisfourthfactor--thisisgoingtobeakeyone--andthisistheamountofCO2putoutpereachunitofenergy.Andsothequestionis,canyouactuallygetthattozero?Ifyouburncoal,no.Ifyouburnnaturalgas,no.Almosteverywaywemakeelectricitytoday,exceptfortheemergingrenewablesandnuclear,putsoutCO2.Andso,whatwe'regoingtohavetodoataglobalscale,iscreateanewsystem.Andso,weneedenergymiracles.Now,whenIusethetermmiracle,Idon'tmeansomethingthat'simpossible.Themicroprocessorisamiracle.Thepersonalcomputerisamiracle.Theinternetanditsservicesareamira