城市停车设施需求预测研究

29199911JOURNALOFSOUTHEASTUNIVERSITYVol129Sup.Nov.19993(,210096)(,200092),,..;U212X(59838310).:1999-03-22.:,1972,..,,,,.1,.1.1..,CBD(CentralBusinessDistrict),.,().,,,.1.2:.FHWA67:50100118,2550212,1025518.1.3,,.FHWA,1.1,.,,,,.,,.2.,,,,.:211(GenerationRateModel)X.Pi=6nj=1(Pij)(Luij)(1),Pii();Pijij;Luijij;n.,,,,,.:,;,,.212(MultipleRegressionModel),22129XParkingGeneration.SecondEdition.InstituteofTransportationEngineers.1987.13.Pi=A0+A1X1i+A2X2i+A3X3i+A4X4i+A5X5i+(2),Pii();X1ii;X2ii;X3ii;X4ii;X5ii;Ai(i=0,1,).,,,,.213(TripAttractionModel)(),.(D),,,.,.,,.214(VolumeParkingSpaceModel)X,.,,logPi=A+BlogVi(3),Pii();Vii;A,B.3OD,,(),.,.(100)().:,.:,,;,(),.321:X...:.1997.18.:3.1,,:Pj=f(Lij)=6iiLij(4),Pij();Lijji();ii,/100;nm,(4)P=P1P2PnT=[12m]L11L1nLm1Lmn(5)Pj,Lijnm,i(4),(5)i.3.2i,i,i0,i0,i.ZPL,Z=P-L(6)Z,.,i0(i=1,2,,m),ig(i)0(i=1,2,,m).,:gl.min(Z)=min(P-L)st.g(i)0i0(7),P-L,:Z=P-L=6nj=1pj-6mi=1iLij2(8)(7)gl.min(Z)=min(P-L)=min(6nj=1iLij)2st.g(i)0i0(9)421293.3(9),.,,,i,2.23.4,,,(9).Phj=Pj(10),Phjj,();Pjj();521:,();.4,:;,,.ForecastingResearchofUrbanParkingFacilitiesDemandChenJun1WangWei1YanKefei2(1TransportationCollege,SoutheastUniversity,Nanjing210096)(2RoadandTrafficDepartmint,TongjiUniversity,Shanghai200092)Abstract:Thispaperfirstlyanalyzestheimpactsofurbanparkingdemands,thenlistssomeeffectiveforecastingmodelsweusuallyuse.Basedonthesemodels,thepapergivesastaticoccurrenceratemodelanditsalgorithm.ThismodelwasappliedtoShanghaiparkingfacilitiesforecastingandgotthegoodre2sult.Keywords:parkingfacilitiesforecasting;staticoccurrencerate62129