企业财务风险的识别与评估研究

江苏科技大学硕士学位论文企业财务风险的识别与评估研究姓名：石香焕申请学位级别：硕士专业：会计学指导教师：葛世伦20070101I123AHP4AbstractIIResearchonFinancialRiskIdentificationandEvaluationofEnterprisesAbstractFinancialriskindwellsineachenterpriseobjectivelyunderpresentmarketeconomysystem.Financialriskaffectsenterprisesnotonlyatcapitalflow,butalsoatmaterialcirculation,itinfluencesenterprises’supply,production,sale,andhasimportanteffecttomanagementanddevelopmentofenterprises.Sotheonlyeffectualwayforenterprisestomeasureandcontrolfinancialrisk,andtopromoteenterprises’developmentisresearchfinancialrisk.Butthroughinvestigationwefoundthatmanyenterprisesinfactdidn’testablishfinancialearly-warningsystem,anddidn’timplementcompleteriskmanagementstrategy.Thecoreproblemforenterprisesriskmanagementisfinancialriskmanagement.Enhancingfinancialriskmanagementstudywillhaveveryimportanttheoreticandpracticalmeaningforenterprisestokeepawayfinancialcrisisandsubsistencecrisiswhichexistinsideoperationandmanagementprocessandoccurbecauseoffinancialrisk.Thatitpromotesenterprisesdevelopingcontinuallyandhealthily,preventsfinancialfraud,promotesenterprisesresourcesandsocialresourcesallocationeffectively.Thepaperresearchesonthecoreproblemoffinancialriskidentificationandevaluation,themaincontentsareasfollows:1.Accordingtocapitalmovementtheories,itclassifiesfinancialriskstheoretically,analyzesfinancialriskinpracticalsituation,andsummarizessixtypesoffinancialriskswhichhavewidespreadandhugeeffectonenterprises.2.Thepaperresearchesrespectivelyonidentificationandevaluationofcashflowriskdebtfinancingrisk,financialriskofmergersandpurchase,andfinancialstatementfraudrisk.Itanalyzescashflowriskanddebtfinancingriskempirically,verifiesusefulnessofthemethodsforriskidentificationandevaluation.3.Thepaperstudiessyntheticallyfinancialriskevaluation,establishesquantitativeevaluationindexandqualitativeevaluationindexsystems.Ittakesquantitativeevaluationindexforexample,sievesrepresentativeindexesstatisticallywithmethodofrelatedcoefficientsquareaverage,fixeseachindex’weightinthewholesystemwithAHPmethod,establishessyntheticfinancialriskevaluationfunction.Basedonstandardvalueforsyntheticevaluation,itranksfinancialrisk,andanalyzesusefulnessofsyntheticevaluationmethodsempirically.AbstractIII4.Accordingtocharacteristicsandcausesofcashflowriskdebtfinancingrisk,financialriskofmergersandpurchase,andfinancialstatementfraudrisk,itputsforwardrelevantpreventionanddisposalstrategies.Thepaperresearchesonseverialfinancialriskstheoretically,andanalyzesidentificationandevaluationmethodsempirically.Itoffersreferenceandassistancetoenterprisesoneffectivefinancialriskidentificationandevaluation.KeywordsFinancialRiskRiskIdentificationRiskEvaluationCashFlowFinancialStatement11.11.1.1[1]ST[2]1.1.2122341.21.2.1[3][22]12345325;35:181835181.2.21.2.2.11(Beaver1966)[4]/90%/88%[5]21[6]~[8](Altman)[6]Zeta12345Z=0.717x+0.847x+3.11x+0.420x+0.998x(Z)4ZZZZZ2(Ohlson1980)[9]19701976105(ConditionalLogitModel)()()()43(Coatst)(Fant1993)(NeuralNetworks)[10]1.2.2.21986[11]1996ZF[12]FZ199927ST27STST3[13]200060604[14]2001Fisherlogistic[15]2002logistic/5/[16]CUSUMcumulativesum[17]~[20]1.2.312341.31.3.161.3.2AHP1-171-11.3.3123482.12.1.1[21]12342.1.22.1.3[22]1922.1.4[22]12345102.2[22][23]2.3[19]2.42.4.11[21]112[21]1233[21]2.4.2[22]122.4.3122.4.42-12-11231342.5[21]2-22-22.5.112345142.5.212342.62.6.1[22]2.6.1.1151,,2,32.6.1.216122.6.1.32.6.21[24]17232.6.32.6.3.1[22][25].C.[25]2.6.3.211182212EPS32.6.42.6.4.1191887ABC1985Treadway[27]8[26][28]2.6.4.21234205122.6.5“”12,21,,,2.6.62.6.6.1[24][27]2.6.6.21STPT23222.6.72.7123233.1[22]1()403-1353-123424125678253.23.2.13.2.1.11210%10%3.2.1.2112226[32][32][32]3-23-23-23.2.1.3[22][23]12273.2.23.2.2.11[33]3-13-1=/111=/=/1111=/=/123-23-2=/=/11=/3=/13.2.2.2281[33]=+++=/3-33.30010100002100%=+++3.2.33.2.3.1[34]2911=/012=/1113=/14=/21=/2=/3=30/11131=/2=/141=/1113-52=/113.2.3.231=+/+13.2.3.33-42003403-42003/14627.8025552.92-13621.301006.5063154.94-0.1730.4010.05761384.8843791.7860834.82550.6214397.811.2221.2051.215ST94872.0684349.9593578.461293.59173678.370.0611.0700.46494872.0684349.9593578.461293.5934698.510.3031.0700.61014241.0313903.0114241.03016357.670.0210.6610.27713977.8113163.3613914.3163.513994.220.0580.9000.39527472.1026648.8827454.1217.9822068.750.0370.9180.39072840.3068146.9072802.3038.0020855.630.2250.9250.505147442.07143829.46141689.575752.50168053.570.0210.6790.28538336.7930633.1430492.487844.3132513.280.2370.9240.51258828.2755620.5652413.676414.6026046.530.1230.8480.41327647.0934222.7927639.617.4926751.20-0.2460.5000.053107249.6690496.12107184.8664.843325.330.3870.7600.5363253771.8734156.4716222.2937549.58117775.670.1670.5470.31929954.5733457.9829938.2716.3037467.32-0.0940.8960.30217005.3815428.8016690.18315.2113741.630.1150.8080.39250147.8227017.1627095.0223052.7917337.131.3342.5581.82417558.9712702.2716704.62854.3512557.050.3871.0340.646184629.92182671.05183782.97846.9562098.030.0320.8110.344107789.3690508.82107203.35586.0162221.480.2780.8580.510141245.30137730.41141205.5539.7572657.990.0480.7300.32116507.3111