基于贝叶斯网络的建设项目质量管理风险因素分析_以京沪高速铁路建设

基于贝叶斯网络的建设项目质量管理风险因素分析周国华,彭波(西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610031):京沪高速铁路是我国投资规模最大技术含量最高的基础设施建设项目,如何有效防范该项目建设在管理和实施中可能出现的风险,为京沪高速铁路建设项目能顺利进行并保证其高质量要求的关键介于铁路建设项目缺乏历史数据资料和现场数据难收集的特点,本文运用贝叶斯网络方法研究京沪高速铁路建设项目中关键质量管理的风险因素,结合专家的意见,建立了京沪高速铁路建设项目质量管理风险因素的贝叶斯网络模型,研究发现京沪高速铁路建设中材料监理执行力等因素为关键风险因素同时,本文展现了如何运用贝叶斯网络研究工程建设项目风险管理的过程:贝叶斯网络;质量管理风险;高速铁路;项目管理:F294:A:1002-9753(2009)09-0099-08AnalysisofQualityManagementRiskinLargeConstructionProjectsBasedonBayesianBeliefNetworkACaseStudyofBeijing-ShanghaiHigh-SpeedRailwayProjectZHOUGuo-hua,PENGBo(SchoolofEconomics&Management,SouthwestJiaotongUniversity,Chengdu610031,China)Abstract:Beijing-Shanghaihigh-speedrailwayisoneofthelargestandhighesttechnologyinfrastructureprojectsinChina.HowtocontroltheuncertaintiesandriskseffectivelyduringtheconstructionofBeijing-Shanghaihigh-speedrailwaycanguaranteetheprojectbecarriedoutsmoothlyandreachedhigh-qualityrequirements.Accordingtothelackofhistoricaldataanddifficultytocollectinformationinconstructionindustry,thispaperuseaBayesianbeliefnetworkmethodtostudythekeyqualitymanagementriskfactorsinBeijing-Shanghaihigh-speedrailwayconstructionprojectmanagement,combinedwiththeproposalofexperts,thispaperalsosetupaBayesianbeliefnetworkmode.lWefoundthattherisksfrommaterialandtheexecutionofsupervisorsarethekeyrisksintheBeijing-Shanghaihigh-speedrailwayconstruction.Atthesametime,thispaperdemonstrateshowtouseaBayesianbeliefNetworktostudytheconstructionprojectriskmanagement.Keywords:Bayesianbeliefnetwork;qualitymanagementrisk;high-speedrailway;projectmanagement:2009-06-10:2009-09-11:!(2008Z019):(1966-),,,,:99基于贝叶斯网络的建设项目质量管理风险因素分析1318,2200,,,,,,!,[1],,,PMBOK,[2]AKINTOYE,[3],PATRICK[4];ZOUPXW[5]AKINTOYE:(riskpremium),(riskadjusteddiscountrate),(subjectiveprobability),(decisionanalysis),(sensitivityanalysis),MonteCarlo(stochasticdominance)[3]DELCANO[6],[7,8](ABayesianBeliefNetwork),,,,[9],,,(),,,,,(一)贝叶斯规则,HE,H=h,E=e,E=e,H=hP(H=h),,H=hP(H=h|E=e):P(H=h|E=e)=P(H=h)P(E=e|H=h)P(E=e)P(E=e|H=h)H=h,L(H=h|E=e)[10],(二)贝叶斯网络,,,,,(),100中国软科学2009年第9期;;,;;,,,[11],(RiskofQuality,RQ)(PoorCompetencyofskilledLabors,PCL)(InappropriateMaterials,IM),11:()85%,95%,S!,,R!,PCLIMRQ11PCLBMRQPCL=S!PCL=R!IM=S!IM=R!IM=S!IM=R!RQ=S!0.950.10.40.01RQ=R!0.050.90.60.99RQ:P(RQ=S)=P(PCL=S)∀P(RQ=S|PCL=S,IM=S)∀P(IM=S)+P(PCL=S)∀P(RQ=S|PCL=S,IM=R)∀P(IM=R)+P(PCL=R)∀P(RQ=S|PCL=R,IM=S)∀P(IM=S)+P(PCL=R)∀P(RQ=S|PCL=R,IM=R)∀P(IM=R)=0.85∀0.95∀0.95+0.85∀0.1∀0.05+0.15∀0.4∀0.95+0.15∀0.01∀0.05=0.828P(RQ=R)=1-P(RQ=S)=1-0.828=0.172RQ,,PCLIM,,22RQ=R,PCLIM2,PCL54.2%;IM26.6%(三)基于贝叶斯网络的风险管理过程VANTRUONGLUU,,()[7]EUNCHANGLEE[8]EUNCHANGLEE,3,:Setp1:,,(,,);101基于贝叶斯网络的建设项目质量管理风险因素分析Setp2:,,;Setp3:,,,,;,,Setp4:,,;Setp5:,,,3(一)风险因素的识别,[5,12,13],,,38,,,,,5(15),,,,,90,50,,,2(二)质量风险的估值,,,:=∀EUNCHANGLEE[8],4,R1,R2R3,,R3,,1231222040%1-51020%714%5-10918%48%10-151428%714%15-20510%612%201224%612%50100%50100%102中国软科学2009年第9期3(%)R1R2R3X22225622X34,206218X17305018X19()28216X33305614X29365014X16187012X13()206812X30206812X32345412X24404812X31306010(:)4(:R1:;R2:;R3:)(三)京沪高速铁路建设质量管理风险贝叶斯网络的构造和分析3,,,:X13.()#X22.;X33.#X29.;X31#X33.;X30.#X32.;GeNIeVer.2.0,5,,(parameterlearning)(maximumlikelihoodestimation)(Bayesianestimation),,;,[10]GeNIeVer.2.0,GeNIeVer.2.0,,,,,,,6GeNIeVer.2.0,,X22X33103基于贝叶斯网络的建设项目质量管理风险因素分析();RR3,,R():P(X22=R3|R=R3)=0.244,P(X17=R3|R=R3)=0.194,P(X34=R3|R=R3)=0.181,P(X19=R3|R=R3)=0.174,;;,(),(四)质量管理风险的控制对策,:104中国软科学2009年第9期,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,:[1].![J].,2008,(5):1-6.[2]PMI.Aguidetotheprojectmanagementbodyofknowledge:PMBOKGuide.3rded[M].USA:ProjectManagementInstituteInc.2004.[3]AKINTOYE,A.S.Riskanalysisandmanagementinconstruction[J].InternationalJournalofProjectManagement,1997,15(1):31-38.[4]ZOUP.X.W.,ZHANGG.,WANGJ.UnderstandingthekeyrisksinconstructionprojectinChina[J].InternationalJournalofProjectManagement,2007,25(6):601-614.[5]ZOUP.X.W.,ZHANGG.,WANGJ.Identifyingkeyrisksinconstructionprojects:lifecycleandstakeholderperspectives[J].In:Proc.12thPacificrimrealestatesocietyconference,Auckland,NewZealand2006,(1):22-25.[6]CANAD.,CRUZD.A.Integratedmethodologyforprojectriskmanagement[J].JournalofConstructionEngineeringandManagement,2002,128(6):473-485.[7]LUUV.T.,KIMS.Y.,TUANN.V.,eta.lQualitifyingscheduleriskinconstructionprojectusingBaysesinbeliefnetworks[J].InternationalJournalofProjectManagement,2009,27(1):39-50.[8]LEEE.,PARKY.,SHINJ.G.LargeengineeringprojectriskmanagementusingaBayesianbeliefnetwork[J].Ex105基于贝叶斯网络的建设项目质量管理风险因素分析pertSystemswithApplications,2009,36(3):5880-5887.[9]HECKERMAND.Bayesiannetworksfordatamining[J].DataMiningandKnowledgeDiscovery1997,1(1):79-119.[10],.[M].:,2006.18-19,31-41,143-171.[11]UUSITALOL.AdvantagesandchallengesofBayesiannetworksinenvironmentalmodeling[J].EcologicalModeling,2007,203(3/4):312-318.[12],,.SCERT[J].,2002,(7):105-108.[13]VIVIANW.Y.TAMA,L.Y.SHEN,C.M.TAM,WILLYW.S.PANG.Investigatingtheintentionalqualityrisksinpublicfoundationprojects:AHongKongstudy[J].BuildingandEnvironment,2007,42(1):330-343.(:)(上接第98页)[2]ADruckman,PBradley.MeasuringProgresstowardsCarbonReductionintheUK[J].EnergyPo