“十五”和XXXX年人口发展报告

64Vol.6No.420007MarketandDemographicAnalysisJuly.,2000:1006-4346(2000)04-0001-092010(,100732):10,2010,14,,,:,;,;,;,;,:2010;;:C923:APopulationDevelopmentReportforTenthFive-yearPlanand2010TIANXue2yuan(InstituteofPopulationResearch,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences,Beijing100732,China)Abstract:TheTenthFive2yearplanandthenexttenyearsarethekeyperiodofChinesepopulatonchangeanddevelopment.Bytheendof2010,populationtargetsaretocontrolthenationalpopulatonsizewithin112billionpeople,toenhancethepopulationqualitytogreatextent,andtoimprovetheage2sexstructureandtheimbalancedurban2ruraldistribution.Therefore,thispapermainlyanalyzeshowChinacouldstabilizelowfertilityandrealizethesustainabledevelopmentgoalofpoulation,resourcesandenvironment.Keywords:TenthFive2yearplanand2010;populationtargets;alternativesofpolicies7080,90,(TFR2.10,NRR1.00),:2110,:2000-04-18:(1938-),,,,,,:1©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.20004,11978,20002000,,(,1984)[1],60,,,?,2010,,:111,,(TFR)1180,2110,,11200020202000200520102020É()12.7313.2813.8014.70TFR2.02.02.02.0()16.4214.7814.8912.80(%)0.970.790.770.4865+(%)6.87.58.011.0()29.732.034.036.4Ê()12.7813.2613.7214.54TFR1.841.891.90()14.614.213.6(%)0.750.690.5865+(%)6.87.58.111.5()30.032.434.537.3:É,:1999[Z].1999,;Ê,:UnitedNations.WorldPopulationProspects,The1998Re2vision[R].NewYork:UnitedNations,1999.2©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.2010,Ê1999125909,19981099;Ê20002005960,20052010920,,,40[2]112,,,,11211,,4020019903219,30;4040,19906816,70[3][4],1995200041,N1199938;,199520006918,N119996719,7210(2),2:2199520201995200020002005200520102010201520152020()4136322825()69.871.272.473.574.567.969.170.371.372.372.073.574.775.976.9:UnitedNations.WorldPopulationProspects,The1998Revision[R].NewYork:UnitedNations,1999.NafisSadik.6Billion,TheStateofWorldPopulation1999[R].NewYork:UNFPA,1999.11212,,(1),19981514852,151518%,1119%[5]198222181%,160.7,20057.0%,20103.5%;1.0,2005419%,2010,2005,2010(2)199898.9%,3©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.2000494.3%,50.7%,,9,2010,200560%,201070%,,,,1ö3(3)(),2010,199831802.54%,0.1,20054296,3124%;20105131,3174%,,,,2010,,,113,,,,,2110,:,,:,70,1999,8090,É,19961994,,2005657.5%,20108.1%;32143415,,,,,,,19983179,121483014%[6];,45%,75%,38%[7],,,,50008000,6500;3250,199833%,200034%,3:4©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.20103200020202000200520102020É()4.385.085.787.12(%)34.338.342.149.0Ê()4.385.156.068.38(%)34.338.844.257.6:ÉUnitedNations.WorldUrbanizationProspects,The1996Revision[R].NewYork:UnitedNations,1998;Ê,19571998313%.,Ê19571998313%,,2010(4316%),2020(5617%),,,50,,80B,,,,2000105.9,2005105.4,2010103.9[8]2,,,,2.1,21,?,70,;,,204020501516403,,,,,,,5©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.20004,;,,,,,,:,;,,,,,[9],,,1949,,5.4212.59,7.17,132.3%;,,,,;,,,,,21,,;,,,,,,[10],,10TFR2.1NRR1.0,,,,,:,,,,,;,,,70,,212,,,,,2,72,1980,6©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.2010,,,2,1,É210,Ê200020051184,200020101189,20101190,210,2,,,,,;;;,,21,,,,,,,,,,,213,,,19984104,,,,,011,GDP01360159,,,[11],,;,215%,;5%,,,:015,GDP310%,380;110,755,!,6,1ö3,,,,,,,,,,7©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.20004,,214,,,,:,;,,,,70%,;67%,12,,,,,(=1)1978219,1998313,2674288()[12],:,,,2,,,,,,2010215,,2005601018%,3214,20101212%3415,;20,2030;20402050,2050602917%,4317,,,;,,,,,,,,:,,,1991,,,,,,,;,,,,,+,,8©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.2010,;,,,2.6,,,,,,,,,,,,?2110,,,,;,,;,,;,,,[13]:[1]2000()[R].:,1984-12.1-4.[2]UnitedNations.WorldPopulationProspects,The1998Revision[R].NewYork:UnitedNations,1999.138-139.[3].1995[Z].:,1995.[4],1997-01-18.[5].1999[Z].:,1999.[6][5].[7]NafisSadik.TheStateofWorldPopulation1998[R].NewYork:UNFPA,1998.[8][2].[9](200032)[N].,2000-05-08(1).[10].[M].:,1997.207-211.[11].2000[M].:,2000.91-96.[12][5].[13].[R]..,2000-03-30,(39):1-4.[:,]9©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.