孵化器的风险管理研究

西安理工大学硕士学位论文孵化器的风险管理研究姓名：王廷浩申请学位级别：硕士专业：技术经济及管理指导教师：扈文秀20030301,,111.119561998330075025001198771988110388819991445.6515117200500040102901.200152.20017220001.231-11-1422.12.1.152.1.233200115416364ØØØØØ4://()662001:56-589ØØØØØØØØØ102.22.2.1,(,)Knight1921Davidson(1988)78.72001-10182182000233011(),,122.2.2192070992001-9313513ØØØ4389210(2-111)102002-654112002-659142-1()“”15???()2.2.3,121,2-.2001-101-816-,,(DRA(1)./(A1)(2).(A2)(3).(A3)(4).(A4)A1,A2A3,A4(DRA)2-1),,(321AAAfDRAA=2-1A1,A2,A3,A4,DRAA1,A2,A3,A4,DRA.[]()4321max,max,max,maxmaxAAAAfDRA=2-2[]()4321min,min,min,minminAAAAfDRA=2-317,,,(DRC)(1).(c1)(2).(c2)(3).(c3)(4).(c4)(DRC)()4321,,,ccccfDRCc=2-4,c1,c2,c3,c4,DRC;c1,c2,c3,c4DRC.[]()4321max,max,max,maxmaxCCCCfDRC=2-5[]()4321min,min,min,minminCCCCfDRC=2-6,,,,B22B,18,,,,,-2-2DRADRCAOB,DRADRCCBD,DRA=DRCBDRE0DRC10DRA1()())11(//≤≤--=-=DREfffDRCDRADRCDREcAc2-7ODBCAREDRCDAR19DRADRCAOB-1DRE0,DRA=DRCBDRE=0DRADRCCBD0DRE1DRE2-3:2-3()()OMA1A2,An,DRA1DRA2DRAnDRC1DRC2,DRCnDRE(A1)DRE(A2)DRE(A3)DRE(An)-1DRE(Ai)0i=1,2,,n0DRE(Aj)1j=1,2,,nDRE(Ai)Ai-1DRE00DRE1DARDRE=0100%DRC202-4(1).A(2).BAC(3).C.2-4:()PXDCBA212-62-72-8.2-5:2-6:2-5(ABC),CABDRACDRABDRAA(DRA)DRCCDRCBDRCA(DRC)ABC22DRAADRCBDRCC2-6,(ABC)DRACDRABDRAA2-7BABBBC,2-7,RxRARxRC(A)(C)2-8BABDBCBECRCRBRABEBDBCBBBAAB23XYZ,1)YZ(=)BYBZ2)XY,RxRY(RA),.(RC)BEBzBxZXBEBDBCYBA2-8DRE02433.1ØØØ3-13-125ØØØ3.1.13-23-2269113.1.23-33-3,()27,,3.1.33-43-4Ø28ØØØØØ,ØØØØ3-1293-1lllllll3.23.2.1303-53-53-6313-63.2.2323-73-73-2123456783-8333-80.10.90.10.913-3s8s2s3s4s7s1s6s5343-31-0.80.8-0.60.6-0.40.4-0.20.2-03-43-4S2S10.6830.7S8S20.180.2S3S10.580.6S3S20.7890.8S4S10.6670.7S8S30.2940.3S5S10.440.4S4S30.7050.7S6S10.2750.3S6S50.1190.1S7S10.3520.35S7S60.4580.5S8S10.1890.2S6S70.3550.35S6S20.2970.3S7S20.4690.53-90-1⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡=000003.02.02.0005.00005.035.0035.000003.03.0001.000004.0000007.007.00000008.06.000000007.000000000A3-9A0-10-1A0.80.10.30.3103-1035⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡=′0000010000100011010000110000000100000100000001000000011100000000A3-103-11⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡=1000011101000011011000110001000100001111000001110000001100000001M3-11ML1=[1]L2=[25]L3=[378]L4=[46]58463-12363-12S6S4S4S3S6S7S8S2S5S2S1ØØØS1S5S2S3S7S8S6S4374.1ØØ38Ø4-14-14.239a)----b)----c)-----123404-14-14.3413-124-242vvnnvsnsnlS1S5S2S3S7S8S6S40.40.70.80.20.50.70.3542lvsnlvnlv1528763412124.08.0)(2.05.0)4.0(8.0)7.0(ssssssssvvvvvvvvvvvvv+=×+×+=×+×+×+×+×=4-14.44-3434-34455.1(H.Asimmon):13,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,13,,2001-530-35451),2);3)(H.Simon):,,46,5.25.2.15-15-112347,(Pan-background)14,:a)b),c)d)e)f),,g),:14,.,2000-732-3348,()()5.2.2lll49lll15lll15200032505012,34,51,5-25-2决策人认知模型刚性决策人能力有限决策人偏好不同决策方法不科学缺乏决策评估制度缺乏决策监督制度决策组织不稳定决策组织不合理决策程序不科学决策人风险决策制度风险决策组织风险决策风险525.35-35-35.3.1llllllllllllll535-15-1545.3.25-45-4lllpFnmFpD55pnm()),,,(),,(jmnpfumnpD=5-1Dxfxpnmjj01j1fxuxppesipesr),,(rsegp=5-2f(x)f(p)p5-3D(f)1-f(p)1-p5-4.neisiri.56j0.8.mpieisiriwewswrwewswr1irisieirwswewp*+*+*=5-5p1p2.....=pi=piniinnkinqpcnpnpF-=∑==}2{),(m5-6q=1-pk=[n2]+1[n2]n2nn,[1]p[01]}22{}212{12npnpnn--mm5-7[2](1)P{2n-1(2n-1)/2},:(1)p1/2P;(2)p=1/2P;(3)p1/2P;(2)P{2n(2n1)/2}(1)p1/2P;(2)p=1/2P;(3)p1/2,N,nN,P{2n2n/2}57[3]:()0}2{,21p)3(21}2{,21p)2(1}2{,21p1===∞→∞→∞→npLimnpLimnpLimnnnnnnmmm5-8(1)pq(2)pqp=q=1/2)pq(p=q))(3)()ppipipi∏∏-===∑==′injjijjinnkinqpcnpnpF11}2{),(m),(1npFjD′*-=58tt1t2tDtt1∏∏-=-=-=-∑==′′injtjijtjinnkinttqpcnpnpF11111}2{),(m5-11),(11tnpFjDtt-″*-=5-12FnpDnpnptpnppppnptt1t159t15.3.3Dt5-55-5a.60b.lnlpilf(x)ljnpi6166.16.1.16-16-1626.1.26-2636-264656-16-1666.26.2.116171.1620024p221172001-2p129672.3.llll6-3686-36.2.21.e11e1e12e24e23e22e3e31e32e5e51e4e53e52e41e43e42e21692.AHP3.ij1.e1le1e11e12e13we11we12we13we11we12we131lEllZe1iZe1j2.Ze2iZe2jZe3iZe3jZe4iZe4jZe5iZe5j3.6-46-44.e1e2e3e5e4ij705.6.3(1),(2)(3),,,71(1)(2)()(3),726-520012002,36-573,,6.3.1i.ii.iii.,iv.v.74vi.18100-8080-6060-4040-2020-06-61820011p43p45756-66.3.2a1a2a3a4a5Z1Z2Z3Z4A1A4A3A2A576Z5Z50x1x2x5aizixizixi⎪⎩⎪⎨⎧≤≤=⎩⎨⎧≥=⎩⎨⎧≤=0i0ii0iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiazaa0aazx5a0aazx43a0azax(21iiiiiiiizzzzizzizzi6-1ix2/zzxX5zxX4321i0iiiiii÷=÷=ii6-21,0),....(51i511=≥=∑∑==iiiiiiXXXFaaa6-3ia77UX1….Xi.q1q2q3q4q5q6p1p2p3p4p5p61,06161=≥=Μ∑∑==iiiiiippqp6-478l1X={xy}xyxyX1)()()()()(ln)()(ln)()()()(=+==+=+=ypxpxXPxpypypxpxpyhxhXhi6-5l2xy)|()()()|()()(yxhyhXhxyhxhXh+=+=6-6xy6-7)()(),(ln),()|()()|()()(ypxpyxpyxpxyhyhyxhxhXI=-=-=6-7lpill16-8)()(1iniixqxh∑==Μ′6-8l26-9())(),(iixqxhF=Μ′′6-97971.2.3.801)2)3)4)5)6)1.2.3.8182.11220015AllenD.Smallbusinessincubator-phasesofdevelopmentandmanagementchallenge,EconomicDevelopmentCommentary,1987(2)20012453200115416386200156-582001..2000379-3842001106-109107832001-101821.200023-30199912(9)200046-76-.15122001-101-8,,44(13),2001-530-35,47142000-732-3349152000325084858687OnTheGameBehaviorofthePublicProjectSelectionProceedingsof2002InternationalConferenceonManagementScience&Engineering,pp.252525282002.10Moscow,Russia.ISBN7-5603-1793-6/F278孵化器的风险管理研究作者：王廷浩学位授予