中国地级市市长职位升迁的经济逻辑分析-N-VyW0~

**12120061031-112GeneratedbyFoxitPDFCreator©FoxitSoftware(1967)2,(Shirk,1993;JiaLin,1994,3;Cheung,ChungLin,1998)“”(Saich,2004,xv)appointee3(Bo,2002;Lin,2003;Zang,2004),LiBachman(1989,64-69)1.14(1)(2)(3)19802385=255520069124=25552006912GeneratedbyFoxitPDFCreator©FoxitSoftware(4)(5)20052681.2factionalism(Domes,1984;Nathan,1973)Bo(2002)GDP1949-1998Lin(Lin,2003)LiWhite(1990,22)Linon-technocraticpoliticalorfamilyconnections(Li,2001,28)Li(Li,2001,128,149)functionalism(Teiwes,1967,57)LiBachman(1989)1.31980(Deng,1983,326,361),(Li,2001;LiWhite,1990),GeneratedbyFoxitPDFCreator©FoxitSoftware(Zang,2004)1.4(Lewis,1974)1Bo(2002)Lin(2003)therateofmobilityortherateofpromotion,1Bo(2002)Lin(2003)[1]2.H1.H1.1H1.2H1.3H1.4GeneratedbyFoxitPDFCreator©FoxitSoftware()(dummyvariables)1998-2005GDP3.2005396026449.7834.16419905(Bo,2003,39)1957196556(Teiwes,1967,7)1988199477.4(Zang,2004,82)198048.91989(LiBachman,1989)[1]47.5335.0856.50200512102.2564.5165Teiwes(1967,31)5200683456GeneratedbyFoxitPDFCreator©FoxitSoftware(Teiwes,1967,31)21980200573.1%45-54198955.8%198926.2%4515.2%606[2]2LiBachman(1989,68)19801.6%3.8%19891989Zang(2004,5)seniorityinCCPpoliticalcredentials19837145://©FoxitSoftware[3]LiWhite(1990,21)487%28%34.6%10142005198060%(Bo,2002;Zang,2004)1980(LiandBachman,1989)(Lin,2003)85%10[4][2]LiBachman(1989)Zang(2004)80%46(76.2%)(89.1%)(5)[](LiWhite,1990,21;Li,2001;Teiwes,1967,28)8334.7%(6)7Barnett(1967)Teiwes(1967,55)7“”©FoxitSoftware(1967,58)[6]Li(Li,2001;Bo,2006)8435%33187ANOVAanalysis4[7]hadtoperformtostayinpower(Bo,2003,4-5;LiandWhite,1990,22)200641082391058©FoxitSoftware(Sheng,2005)DummyVariable15762.8%37.2%875.3%72.0%[8]4.:2005Therateofmobility(Farmer,1992,211)ThomasWhitman(1998,28)KennethFarmerthespeedofpromotion(1992,215-217)GeneratedbyFoxitPDFCreator©FoxitSoftware(1989,80)Zang(1991a,513-14;1991b,116,120)LiBachman(1989,80-81)GilEyalEleanorTownleynomenklatura(1995,733)Zang(2004,188)Zangnomenklatura(Zang,2004,118)637.2%(1)A=(2)B=(3)A=1/A(4)B=1/B3,4,78AB[9]1GeneratedbyFoxitPDFCreator©FoxitSoftware(Zang,2004,122;LiBachman,1989,82)(LiWhite,1990,16,21)(Putnam,1977,404)5.51(.180)(.057)51LiBachman(1989,82)24499.9%U21=.0282*-1.546.[3]54.82354.8234545-54.823LiBachman(1989,82)30(MacDonald,1987)1(Zheng,2005)(Tewiwes,1967,15;LiBachman,1989,80)Vogel99VogelinA.DoakBarnett’sLocalGovernmentSeminar,ColumbiaUniversity.March17,1996.51(Teiwes,1967).GeneratedbyFoxitPDFCreator©FoxitSoftware(Teiwes,1967,30)LiBachman(1989,82)Farmer(Farmer,1992,215-217)34A105,6,78BB[10]1,2,3,4vs.5,6,7,845.:1133AGDP[11]11(Sig.=.0005)3(Bo,2002;Lin,2003)Bo99%GeneratedbyFoxitPDFCreator©FoxitSoftware©FoxitSoftware(2002)Lin(2003)GeneratedbyFoxitPDFCreator©FoxitSoftware(20051231)39.0059.4249.78274.16403()35.0856.5047.52733.81873.009.582.25551.53039N26421989*1989*Dec.2005Dec.200524398.425496.241.6103.8247100.0264100.022691.522986.7197.7166.120.8197.2247100.0264100.035-3983.21.440-445723.03914.845-496727.19636.450-547128.79736.755-593514.13111.760-6472.80020.80024799.7**264100.0*1989:ChengLiDavidBachman,(1989),p.69.**100GeneratedbyFoxitPDFCreator©FoxitSoftware(20051231)2649.0840.5826.61335.51446()2649.0836.6724.36615.16964(20051231)26414.4243.1730.30735.3889326413.6739.5828.05185.09215(26411.3338.2526.85385.24170N2644Dec.2005Dec.20051989*1989*0093.61.4228.9135.3187.33915.73614.66928.014759.58534.6104.1145.752.0------20.8------239.3246100.024799.9***1989:ChengLiDavidBachman,(1989),p.73**100***2,2005GeneratedbyFoxitPDFCreator©FoxitSoftware(%ofTotal)43138181(79.7%)23.8%76.2%100.0%41546(20.3%)89.1%10.9%100.0%84143227