水库调度的风险管理模式3

31122,710048;(:,1958,),,,,:TV21314RiskManagementModelforReservoirOperationHuangQiang1ShenJin1LiWenfang2GuoYongfeng2XianUniversityofTechnology,Xian710048;ShaanxiYellowRiverHydraulicEngineeringConsultantCo.LTDAbstractIncombinationofreservoiroperation,thispaperdiscussestheriskconception,natureandtypes,etc.,onthebasisofwhichtheriskmanagementmodelforreservoiropera2tionisstudied,whosecontentsincluderiskidentification,riskanalysis,riskdecision2tak2ing,riskcontrolandriskdisposal.Theresearchresultscanbesuppliedtothereservoirop2eration,managementanddecision2takingdepartmentsfortheirreferencetherebylayingasolidfoundationforfurtherconductingresearchinthisfield.Keywardsreservoiroperationriskmanagementmodel,,,,3040,;50,,,,,,80,[13],,19972052193(852926204201202)032JournalofXipanUniversityofTechnology(1998)Vol.14No.3©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[1,4]1984ASI,,[3]1978,[4],,,,80[5],1111,,(),,,(),,,,,[1]F1H1,(1983);[1],,[1],,,,,;,,112[14]11211,132:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1998)143©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,,2,,,,(Risk)(Discern)2(Analysis)2(Decision)2(Control)2(Dispose),DADCD,11DADCD,21121111()()()()();;332:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()21112,,,,,,,21113,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,21221211,,,,,,,2.212,,,,,,2.213,,,,,,432(1998)143©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[13],,,,,(),,:,214,,,,215,:;;;3,,,,,;,[7]111:,1989211:,19943()L1111:,19934AlfredHS,WilsonHTang.ProbabilityConceptsinEngineeringPlanningandDesign,VolumeÊ,Deci2sion,RiskandReliability,JohnWikyandSons,NewYork,19845HasamYazicigil,HouckMarkH.Theeffectsofriskandreliabilityonoptimalreservoirdesign.WaterResourBall,1984,20(3)611,1985(1)7,,11,1998(3)532:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.