第十一讲国家风险评估及管理

第十一讲国家风险评估及管理ChapterObjectivesToidentifythecommonfactorsusedbyMNCstomeasureacountry’spoliticalriskandfinancialrisk;Toexplainthetechniquesusedtomeasurecountryrisk;andToexplainhowMNCsusetheassessmentofcountryriskwhenmakingfinancialdecisions.WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportant１.DefinitionofPoliticalriskistheriskthatthebusinessenvironmentinahostcountrywillchangeunexpectedlyoristhepotentiallyadverseimpactofacountry’senvironmentonanMNC’scashflows(国家风险指东道国的商业环境发生非预期的变化，从而对跨国公司的价值产生影响。）2.SomeAdverseImpacts:a.Aterroristattackb.Amajorlaborstrikeinanindustryc.Apoliticalcrisisduetoascandalwithinacountryd.Concernaboutacountry’sbankingsystemthatmaycauseamajoroutflowoffundse.Theimpositionoftraderestrictionsonimports３.Countryriskanalysiscanbeused:tomonitorcountrieswheretheMNCiscurrentlydoingbusiness;asascreeningdevicetoavoidconductingbusinessincountrieswithexcessiverisk;andtoreviseitsinvestmentorfinancingdecisionsinlightofrecentevents.WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportantthecompaniesthatassesscountryrisk.Politicalrisk（政治风险）istheriskthatasovereignhostgovernmentwillunexpectedlychangetherulesofthegameunderwhichbusinessesoperatePoliticalrisksarisebecauseofunexpectedchangesinthepoliticalenvironmentwithinahostcountryorintherelationshipofahostcountrytoanothercountry.Financialrisk（财务风险）refersmoregenerallytounexpectedeventsinacountry’sfinancial,economic,orbusinesslifeFinancialriskisdeterminedbyahostoffinancialandeconomicfactors,someofwhicharerelatedtolocalpoliticalrisk.PoliticalRiskFactorsA.AttitudeofconsumersinthehostcountrySomeconsumersareveryloyaltolocallymanufacturedproducts.B.ActionsofhostgovernmentThehostgovernmentmayimposespecialrequirementsortaxes,restrictfundtransfers,andsubsidizelocalfirms.MNCscanalsobehurtbyalackofrestrictions,suchasfailuretoenforcecopyrightlaws.PoliticalRiskFactorsC.BlockageofFundTransfersFundsthatareblockedmaynotbeoptimallyused.Iffundtransfersareblocked,subsidiarieswillhavetoundertakeprojectsthatmaynotbeoptimalfortheMNC.D.CurrencyInconvertibilityTheMNCparentmayneedtoexchangeearningsforgoodsiftheforeigncurrencycannotbechangedintoothercurrenciesE.WarInternalandexternalbattles,oreventhethreatofwar,canhavedevastatingeffects.The2003WarinIraqF.Bureaucracy(官僚）Bureaucracycancomplicatebusinesses.G.Corruption（腐败）Corruptioncanincreasethecostofconductingbusinessorreducerevenue.PoliticalRiskFactorsCorruptionPerceptionsIndexTheindex,whichispublishedbyTransparencyInternational,reflectsthedegreetowhichcorruptionisperceivedtoexistamongpublicofficialsandpoliticians.In2001,91countriesarerankedonacleanscoreof10.RankCountryScore1Finland9.93NewZealand9.44Singapore9.27Canada8.913U.K.8.314HongKong7.916Israel7.616U.S.A.7.618Chile7.520Germany7.421Japan7.1RankCountryScore23France6.726Botswana6.027Taiwan5.938SouthAfrica4.842SouthKorea4.246Brazil4.051Mexico3.757Argentina3.557China3.579Russia2.388Indonesia1.9CorruptionIndexRatingsforSelectedCountriesMaximumrating=10.Highratingsindicatelowcorruption.FindoutmoreaboutTransparencyInternationalandtheCorruptionPerceptionsIndexbyvisiting’sEconomyArecessioncanseverelyreducedemand.FinancialdistresscanalsocausethegovernmenttorestrictMNCoperations.B.IndicatorsofEconomicGrowthAcountry’seconomicgrowthisdependentonseveralfinancialfactors-interestrates,exchangerates,inflation,etc.ExamplesofpoliticalrisksExpropriationrisk（征用风险）–AssetshavebeenexpropriatedafterrevolutionsinIranandChile.Disruptionsinoperations（经营中断风险）-changesinlawsorregulations..muchmorecommonthanexpropriationandcanhappeneveninpeacetime.Protectionism（贸易保护主义风险）-e.g.,“buyAmerican.”Protectionismcanaffectlocalconsumption.Blockedfunds（资金转移风险）-fundsthatcannotbeimmediatelyremittedtotheparentcompany.Lossofintellectualpropertyrights（知识产权风险）-particularlyproblematicindevelopingandtransitionaleconomiessuchasChinaandtheformerstatesoftheSovietUnion.ExamplesoffinancialrisksCurrencyriskInterestrateriskInflationriskUnexpectedchangesinthecurrentaccountbalanceUnexpectedchangesinthebalanceoftradePoliticalRiskServices’InternationalCountryRiskGuide（国际国家风险指南）includesthefollowingassessmentsintheirfinancialriskindex.LoandefaultsorloanrestructuringsPaymentdelaysCancellationsofcontractsbyahostgovernmentLossesfromexchangecontrolsExpropriationofprivateinvestmentsWhatarethepoliticalandfinancialoutlookforvariouscountries?OnlineApplicationConsulttheCountryCommercialGuidespreparedbyembassystaffatRefertotheCIA’sWorldFactbookatVisit１.MacroassessmentofCountryRiskMacrorisks——affectallfirmsinahostcountry(指在东道国整个国家范围内发生的影响到所有企业的风险，如东道国的财政和货币政策、银行系统、税率、资本管制、汇率等的突然变化。）a.CharacteristicsoftheCountry:1.)Politicalfactors2.)Financialfactorsb.UncertaintySurroundingaMacroassessment2.MicroassessmentofCountryRiskMicrorisks——specifictoanindustry,firmorprojectinacountry（指仅对某一特定行业或企业产生