中国奶牛业发展概况

中国奶业发展回顾与展望ReviewandOutlookofChina’sDairyIndustry农业部畜牧业司行业发展处处长王俊勋PresentedbyWangJunxun,DivisionDirectorforAnimalProductionDevelopment,MOA二00八年九月八日Sep.8,20082报告的主要内容当前中国奶业发展基本情况OverviewofChina’sDairyIndustry中国奶业发展的展望OutlookonChina’sDairyDevelopment下一步重点工作PrioritiesinFutureWork3一、当前中国奶业发展的基本情况I.OverviewofChina’sDairyIndustry一是奶类产量快速增长。2007年我国奶类总产量为3633万吨，比2000年增长2.9倍；奶牛存栏1218.9万头，比2000年增长1.5倍Fastgrowthinyield.In2007,thetotalproductionwas36.33milliontons,upby290%over2000;cattleinventory12.18millionheads,upby150%.47年以来，奶业生产已由世界第11位跃居世界第3位。Over7yearsofdevelopment,Chinahasrankedthirdintheworld’sdairyproductionfrom11th.一、当前中国奶业发展的基本情况I.OverviewofChina’sDairyIndustry5二是乳品加工能力不断增强。2007年我国乳制品产量为1787万吨，比2000年增长7.2倍。其中液态奶产量1441万吨，比2000年增长9.7倍。Processingcapacityhasbeenconstantlyimproved.Theproductionofprocesseddairyproductsof2007was17.87milliontons,upby720%over2000,ofwhichliquidmilk14.41milliontons,upby970%.6三是乳品消费稳步增长。2007年全国城镇居民平均乳制品消费量为24.9公斤，比2000年增长0.7倍，农村居民奶类消费也有较大幅度的增长。Consumptionfordairyproductssteadilyincreased.In2007,averagedairyconsumptionincitiesandtownsreached24.9kg,upby70%over2000.Significantgrowthalsotookplaceinruralareas.7四是对农业和农村经济带动作用明显增强。当前，我国饲养奶牛的农户约为260多万户，奶牛养殖业的产值达到847亿元，约占畜牧业总产值的5%。奶业的发展增加了农村劳动力的就业机会，推动了种植业结构的调整。Boosttheagriculture&ruraleconomicdevelopment.Forthemoment,wehavesome2.6millionfarmerhouseholdsfordairyproduction.Theproductionvaluereached84.7billionyuan,5%oftotalanimalindustry.Thedairyindustrynotonlyoffersmorejobopportunities,butenhancesrestructuringofcropindustry.8五是产品国际贸易日益频繁。近年来我国继续从国外引进奶牛冷冻精液、胚胎及活体遗传物质，乳制品进出口贸易数量持续增长。同时，与澳大利亚、新西兰等国的奶业交流合作范围进一步加大。Activeinternationaltradefordairyproducts.Wehaveintherecentyearscontinuedtointroducefrozensemen,embryoandlivegeneticmaterials.Tradevolumekeepsgrowing.WehavealsoexpandedcooperationwithAustraliaandNewZealand.9当前我国奶业发展克服了去年上半年养殖效益下滑的不利局面，奶牛生产形势总体稳定。但进入4月份以来，北方奶业主产区原料奶收购价格出现不同程度下降。Havingovercomethedeclineinproductivityinthefirsthalflastyear,dairyproductionkeepsstable.However,asofApril,themaindairyproducingareasinthenorthhavewitnessedsomefallinpriceforrawmilktodifferentextent.当前我国奶牛养殖形势总体稳定DairyProductionKeepsStable10随着中秋国庆两节的临近和乳制品消费旺季的到来，价格将可能逐步回升，奶农收益可望保持稳定。WiththeapproachingoftheMoonFestivalandNationalHolidayaswellascomingofhighseasonforconsumption,thepriceislikelytograduallypickupwithgoodhopeforstabilizingfarmers’interest.11产业发展拥有良好的政策环境GoodPoliciesEnvironment生产发展潜力大LargePotentialsinProduction消费需求平稳增长StableGrowthinDemandforConsumption二、我国奶业发展的展望II.OutlookonChina’sDairyIndustry奶业生产发展面临良好机遇GoodOpportunitiesforDairyProduction12我国奶业总体发展水平还比较低，还处在初级发展阶段，抵御市场风险能力较差。目前纯种荷斯坦奶牛比例低；存栏20头以上的奶牛规模养殖比重只有31%；乳品加工企业与奶农的利益关系不顺，Stilllowinlevelofoveralldevelopmentandvulnerableinfaceofmarketrisks.LowratioofpureHolstein,only30%infarmsofover20headsofcattleeach;notclearlydefinedinterest-sharinglinksbetweenfarmersandprocessors.挑战：国内奶业总体发展水平不高Challenge:nothighinlevelofoveralldevelopment13原料奶定价机制不合理；消费群体培育滞后，市场开拓不力。特别是近一个时期，饲料价格大幅上涨，已成为当前奶牛养殖发展的重要制约因素。Unreasonablepricingmechanismforrawmilk;lagging-behindmarketdevelopmentandfosteringofconsumptiongroup.Inparticularintherecentperiod,theuprisingofpriceforfeedhasbecomeabigconstraintfordairyproduction.14挑战：乳制品国际竞争力不强Challenge:weakcompetitiveness随着经济全球化的不断发展，中国奶业发展与国际市场的互动性更强、关联度更高，产业弱质性将更加凸显。Withdevelopingofeconomicglobalization,itbecomesmoreinteractiveandcorrelatedbetweenChina’sdairyindustryandglobalmarket.ThedisadvantagesofChina’sdairyindustrywillbecomeevenmoreapparent.15去年10月份以来国际乳制品价格逐步回落，我国乳制品价格处于劣势，竞争力继续下降。受此影响，今年上半年我国乳制品进口明显增长，出口却大幅减少，促使原料奶收购价格回落，导致养殖效益下滑。GiventhepricefallintheglobalmarketasoflastOctober,thepriceofChina’sdairyproductsisinaninferiorpositionwithevenreducedcompetitiveness.Asaresult,thefirsthalfofthisyearrecordedasubstantialgrowthindairyimportswhilesharpreductioninexportatthesametime,whichleadstodropofpriceforrawmilkanddampenedprofitforfarmers.16三、下一步重点工作III.PrioritiesinFutureWork一是提高奶牛标准化规模养殖水平。加强奶牛良种选育和改良。加快奶牛规模养殖场和标准化养殖小区建设，逐步解决奶牛养殖规模小而散问题。First,toenhancethestandardizedandscaleproduction.Effortswillbemadeinbreedimprovementandbuildingofstandardizedfarmandraisingcommunities.17大力推广科学饲养技术，加快普及机械化挤奶，加强饲草料基地建设，努力提高奶牛单产和原料奶质量。Promotescientificraisingtechnologyandexpediteapplicationofmechanizedmilkingenhancebuildingofforagegrassproductionbasis;improvetheunityieldandproductquality.18二是加强原料奶收购市场管理。确定合理的原料奶收购参考价格。制定生鲜乳收购管理办法，规范原料奶市场秩序。Second,totightenmarketmanagementforrawmilk.Formulatereasonablereferencepriceandsetupregulationsonadministrationoverpurchaseofrawmilkwithaviewtoregulatingthemarkerorder.19大力支持奶业协会和奶农合作组织发展，通过协会和合作社，提高奶农在原料奶销售中的谈判地位，帮助奶农解决生产经营中遇到的实际问题，保障奶农权益。Promotethedevelopingofdairyassociationandcooperativestoconsolidatethepositionoffarmersinsalesofrawmilkandhelpaddressthedifficultiesinproductionandoperation.20三是加大对奶业发展的宏观调控。借鉴发达国家对奶业扶持和保护的成功经验和做法，结合我国奶业发展实际，研究制定产业发展的政策框架体系。Third,tostrengthenthemacro-regulation.Referringtothegoodexperienceandpracticesofdevelopedcountries,toformulatethepolicyframeworksuitedtoourowncondition.21加强乳制品进口调控，保护奶农利益和国内乳制品企业，维护奶业生产和市场的稳定。宣传普及牛奶营养知识。Strengthenthere