风险投资公司经营能力的模糊评价方法

TheHistoryandDevelopmentofCyberneticsTheHistoryandDevelopmentofCybernetics事理学的历史与发展PresentedbyTheGeorgeWashingtonUniversityinCooperationwithTheAmericanSocietyforCyberneticsTheHistoryandDevelopmentofCyberneticsTheHistoryandDevelopmentofCybernetics事理学的历史与发展HistoryofCyberneticsManyyearsago...很久以前…Thethingsapersonhadtounderstandtogetthroughlifewererelativelyuncomplicated.一个人要从生活中理解的事情相对来说还不是很复杂。RelativeComplicationEveryobjectorprocess,whichweshallrefertoasasystem,wasrelativelysimple.每一个物体或者过程，如果我们可称之为一个系统，都还相对简单。Objects&ProcessesInfact,upuntilthelastfewhundredyears,itwaspossibleforsomepeopletomasterasignificantportionofman'sexistingknowledge.事实上，一直到最近的几百年前，对于某些人而言，他们一个人就有可能掌握人类现存知识体系中相当重要的一部分。KnowledgeMasteryLeonardoDaVinciLeonardoDaVinciwasaleaderinthefieldsofpainting..达芬奇是绘画领域的领军人物….DaVinci–Painting...sculpture...…但同时也是雕塑领域的…DaVinci,cont.–Sculpture...anatomy...…也是解剖学专家…DaVinci,cont.–Anatomy...architecture...…建筑学专家…DaVinci,cont.–Architecture...weaponsengineering,and...…武器制造工程师…而且还是…DaVinci,cont.–WeaponsEngineering...aeronauticalengineering.Thisishissketchfora16thcenturyflyingmachine...…航空工程师。这是他画的16世纪的飞行器的草图…DaVinci,cont.–AeronauticalEngineering...andforaparachuteincasethemachinebrokedown.…如果飞行器出了问题，这是降落伞的草图。DaVinci,cont.–AeronauticalEngineering,cont.Astimepassed,thesystemsthathumanswereconcernedwithbecame...随着时间的推移，人类所关注的系统开始变得…Complexity复杂性SystemsComplexity...moreandmorecomplicated.…越来越复杂。SystemsComplexity,cont.Transportationsystemsalonehavebecomemorecomplex...只是交通系统就已经变得更复杂了…SystemsComplexity,cont....andmorecomplex...…而且越来越复杂…SystemsComplexity,cont....andmorecomplex...…越来越复杂…SystemsComplexity,cont....andmorecomplex...…越来越复杂…SystemsComplexity,cont....ashaveenergysystems.…能源系统也是如此。SystemsComplexity,cont.Somepeoplehavesuggestedthattechnology...有些人建议技术…TechnologyAdvances...isadvancingsorapidlyit...…发展得如此迅猛…TechnologyAdvances,cont....isoutpacingourabilitytocontrolit.…已经超出了我们能够控制的能力了。TechnologyAdvances,cont.ThreeMileIslandClearly,itisnolongerpossibleforonepersontokeepupwithdevelopmentsinallfields,letalonebealeaderinmanyofthem,asLeonardoDaVinciwas.很显然，像达芬奇那样一个人能够在许多领域发展并成为各个领域的领军人物已经不再可能了。KeepingupwithDevelopmentsSpecializationhasbecomeanecessity.Howthen,doweliveandworkeffectivelyinatechnicallyadvancedsociety?专业化成为了一种必须。那么，我们怎么样才能有效地生活和工作在一个技术高度发达的社会中呢？HowtoLiveandWorkinaTechnicallyAdvancedSociety?UnderlyingPrinciplesIsthereawaythatyou,themodernmanorwoman,cansortthroughthecomplexity,formulateasetofprinciplesunderlyingallsystemsandtherebyenhanceyourabilitytoregulatetheworldinwhichyoulive?你，作为一个现代人，有可能在这些复杂性当中寻找出一系列适用于所有系统的原则，并由此而提高自己的能力来调节你所居住的这个世界吗？Cybernetics=RegulationofSystems事理学＝系统的调节Thisquestionwasofinteresttoahandfulofpeopleinthe1940swhowerethepioneersinafieldthathasbecomeknownasCybernetics,thescienceoftheregulationofsystems.1940年的时候，有一批人对这个问题产生了兴趣，他们成了这个的领域的探索先锋，该领域后来被称为事理学，也就是如何调节系统的科学。Cybernetics=RegulationofSystemsCyberneticsisaninterdisciplinarysciencethatlooksatanyandallsystemsfrommolecules...事理学是一门跨学科科学，研究的是任何一种系统，小到分子…Cybernetics–anInterdisciplinaryScience...togalaxies,withspecialattentiontomachines,animalsandsocieties.…大到银河系，对机器、动物和社会也有特别的关注。WhatCyberneticsLooksatCyberneticsisderivedfromtheGreekwordforsteersmanorhelmsman,whoprovidesthecontrolsystemforaboatorship.Cybernetics这个词是从希腊语的舵手steersmanorhelmsman来的，舵手就是在船上控制船系统的人。DerivationofCyberneticsThiswordwascoinedin1948anddefinedasasciencebyNorbertWiener,whowasbornin1894anddiedin1964.HebecameknownastheFatherofCybernetics.这个词在1948年由NorbertWiener借用来定义了这门科学。Wiener生于1894，死于1964，是公认的事理学之父。NorbetWeinerWienerwasanappliedmathematician,biologist,andelectricalengineer.HeworkedduringWorldWarIIontheradar-guidedanti-aircraftgun.Wiener本人是应用数学家、生物学家和电子工程师。在二战期间，他研发了雷达控制的防空高炮。Wiener–RadarHeconnectedaspecialradartothegunsothatitwasaimedautomaticallyattheenemyaircraft.Afterthegunwasfired,theradarquicklydeterminedthechanginglocationoftheplaneandre-aimedthegununtiltheplanewasshotdown.他在高射炮上连上了一个特殊的雷达装置，会自动瞄准敌人的飞机。在炮弹发射后，雷达会快速确定飞机的变化位置并重新瞄准飞机，直至飞机被击落。Weiner–Radar,cont.Thesystemimitatedhumanfunctionsandperformedthemmoreeffectively.这个系统模拟人的功能，并且比人更为有效。Wiener–RadarandHumanFactorImitationFeedback反馈Theanti-aircraftgundemonstratesthecyberneticprincipleoffeedback.Feedbackisinformationabouttheresultsofaprocesswhichisusedtochangetheprocess.Theradarprovidedinformationaboutthechangesinlocationoftheenemyairplaneandthisinformationwasusedtocorrecttheaimingofthegun.高射防空炮运用了事理学中的反馈原理。反馈是有关过程结果的信息，这个结果反过来又被用来改变过程。雷达提供了敌人飞机的方位的变化信息来调节高射炮的瞄准。FeedbackAmorefamiliarexampleoftheuseoffeedbacktoregulateasystemisthecommonthermostatforheatingaroom.使用反馈来调节系统的一个更为普遍的例子是供暖系统中的温度计。Feedback–ThermostatRoomTemperatureRisesto700房间温度到了华氏70°Iftheheatingsystemisadjusted,asiscommon,toallowamaximumof2degreesvariation,whenthethermostatissetat68degreesthetemperaturewillriseto70degrees...如果供暖系统被调整为允许华氏2°的误差时，当温度计设定在华氏68°时，实际温度会上升到华氏70°…ThermostatFeedbackExampleRoomTemperatureRisesto700房间温度上升到70°FurnaceTurnsOff炉子关闭...beforeatemperaturesensorinthethermostattriggersthefurnacetoturnoff.这时候，温度计中的感应器才会把炉子关闭。ThermostatFeed