long-term-secret-to-short-term-trading

Long-TermSecretstoShort-TermTradingWILEYTRADINGADVANTAGETradingwithoutFear/RichardW.Arms,Jr.NeuralNetwork:TimeSeriesForecastingofFinancialMarkets/E.MichaelAzoffOptionMarketMaking/AlanJ.BairdMoneyManagementStrategiesforFuturesTraders/NauzerJ.BalsaraGeneticAlgorithmsandInvestmentStrategies/RichardJ.Bauer,Jr.TechnicalMarketIndicators:AnalysisandPerformance/RichardJ.Bauer,Jr.,andJulieR.DahlquistSeasonality:Systems,Strategies,andSignals/JakeBernsteinTheHedgeFundEdge/MarkBoucherManagedFutures:AnInvestor’sGuide/BeverlyChandlerBeyondTechnicalAnalysis/TusharChandeTheNewTechnicalTrader/TusharChandeandStanleyS.KrollTradingontheEdge/GuidoJ.DeboeckTradingthePlan/RobertDeelTheNewScienceofTechnicalAnalysis/ThomasR.DeMarkPointandFigureCharting/ThomasJ.DorseyTradingforaLiving/Dr.AlexanderElderStudyGuideforTradingforaLiving/Dr.AlexanderElderTheDayTrader’sManual/WilliamF.EngTheOptionsCourse:HighProfit&LowStressTradingMethods/GeorgeA.FontanillsTheOptionsCourseWorkbook/GeorgeA.FontanillsTrading101/SunnyJ.HarrisTrading102/SunnyJ.HarrisAnalyzingandForecastingFuturesPrices/AnthonyF.HerbstTechnicalAnalysisoftheOptionsMarkets/RichardHextonPattern,Price&Time:UsingGannTheoryinTradingSystems/JamesA.HyerczykProfitsfromNaturalResources:HowtoMakeBigMoneyInvestinginMetals,Food,andEnergy/RolandA.JansenTradingSystems&Methods,ThirdEdition/PerryKaufmanTradingtoWin/AriKiev,M.D.UnderstandingOptions/RobertKolbTheIntuitiveTrader/RobertKoppelNonlinearPricing:Theory&Applications/ChristopherT.MayMcMillanonOptions/LawrenceG.McMillanTradingonExpectations/BrendanMoynihanIntermarketTechnicalAnalysis/JohnJ.MurphyForecastingFinancialMarkets,3rdEdition/MarkJ.PowersandMarkG.CastelinoNeuralNetworksintheCapitalMarkets/PaulRefenesCyberneticTradingStrategies/MurrayA.Ruggiero,Jr.TheOptionAdvisor:Wealth-BuildingTechniquesUsingEquityandIndexOptions/BernieG.SchaefferGamingtheMarket/RonaldB.SheltonOptionStrategies,2ndEdition/CourtneySmithTraderVicII:PrinciplesofProfessionalSpeculation/VictorSperandeoCampaignTrading/JohnSweeneyTheTrader’sTaxSurvivalGuide,Revised/TedTesserTheMathematicsofMoneyManagement/RalphVincePortfolioManagementFormulas/RalphVinceTheNewMoneyManagement:AFrameworkforAssetAllocation/RalphVinceTradingApplicationsofJapaneseCandlestickCharting/GaryWagnerandBradMathenyTradingChaos:ApplyingExpertTechniquestoMaximizeYourProfits/BillWilliamsNewTradingDimensions:HowtoProfitfromChaosinStocks,Bonds,andCommodities/BillWilliamsLong-TermSecretstoShort-TermTrading/LarryWilliamsLong-TermSecretstoShort-TermTradingLarryWilliamsJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.NewYork•Chichester•Weinheim•Brisbane•Singapore•TorontoPostScriptPictureWILEY.EPSNavigatorchartswereprovidedbyGenesisFinancialDataServices:800-808-3282.Thisbookisprintedonacid-freepaper.Copyright©1999byLarryWilliams.Allrightsreserved.PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystemortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanningorotherwise,exceptaspermittedunderSection107or108ofthe1976UnitedStatesCopyrightAct,withouteitherthepriorwrittenpermissionofthePublisher,orauthorizationthroughpaymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeetotheCopyrightClearanceCenter,222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,[phone],fax[phone].RequeststothePublisherforpermissionshouldbeaddressedtothePermissionsDepartment,JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,605ThirdAvenue,NewYork,NY10158-0012,[phone],fax[phone],E-Mail:[e-mail]dtoprovideaccurateandauthoritativeinformationinregardtothesubjectmattercovered.Itissoldwiththeunderstandingthatthepublisherisnotengagedinrenderingprofessionalservices.Ifprofessionaladviceorotherexpertassistanceisrequired,theservicesofacompetentprofessionalpersonshouldbesought.LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData:Williams,LarryR.Long-termsecretstoshort-termtrading/LarryWilliams.p.cm.—(Wileytradingadvantage)ISBN0-471-29722-4(cloth:alk.paper)1.Commodityfutures.2.Speculation.I.Title.II.Series.HG6046.W5391999332.63¢28—dc2198-44949PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.10987654321vAcknowledgmentsThisbookisnottheproductofresearch—itistheculminationofacareerthathasincludedagreatdealofresearch,personalintrospection,and,alongtheway,somepersonalgrowth.Mycareer,andaccordinglythisbook,wouldnothavebeenthesamewithoutthehelp,support,andsharingofknowledgewithothersovertheyears.ProminentamongthesepeopleareDonSarno,whowasthefirstonetoinvitemetospeakforCommoditiesMagazine,andBillMeehanandTomDeMark—bothbrilliantanalysts,yetpolesapart—whoweremostinstru-mentaltomyunderstandingofthemarkets.Boththeseguyswerealwayswillingtoswapideas.IalsoowealargedebtofgratitudetoKenHornbrook,whowasalwayswillingtohelpmeprogramyet“onemore”idea.IwanttothankMikeStockforhisprogrammingandideaexchange;JakeBernstienforhisfriendshipforoveraquarterofacentury;thebrokers,includingAlandGregAlesandra,whohaveputupwithmyconstantques-tionsandphonecalls;JoelRobbinsforhissupportandfinestaffincludingLarryHerstandmydailycontacts,thedynamicduoof“RickandGen