克里雅河流域PRED系统的可持续发展实证研究

©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2005)1220011207PRED1,1,1,1,1,2,1(11,100080;21,110004):,PRED,,,PRED,.,PRED,,.:;PRED;:F06113:ASustainableDevelopmentEvidenceResearchofKeriyaRiverValleyPREDSystemCHENRui1,WANGJian1,WANGYun2lin1,LIDing1,FUYun1,LIDong2,NIUWen2yuan1(11InstituteofPolicyandManagement,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100080,China;21InstituteofAdministrationandManagement,NortheasternUniversity,Shenyang110004,China)Abstract:Throughapplyingthesynthesisevaluationmodeloftotaldevelopmentofvalley,thistextusesthePREDsystemtheoryofvalleyasthebase,principalcomponentanalysisandothermathematicstoolsasthemainmethod,onthebaseofdemonstrationalanalysis,withthebackgroundofnaturehistoryandthestatusinquoofsocietydevelopmentofKeriyarivervalley,todomodelanalysisandsynthesisevaluationonsustainabledevelopmentofKeriyarivervalleysPREDsystem.Thetextprovidessciencefoundationfortheestablishmentofsustainabledevelopmentmodelandregulatecountermeasureevaluativeofthevalley.Thispaperprovidesanavailablemodelofsustainabledevelopmentfortheoasisofvalleyevolvementandthecontrolofenvironment.Keywords:Keriyarivervalley;PREDsystem;sustainabledevelopment:2005202228:2(FP5:SUSDEV2CHINA),(973)(G1999043502):()(1975-),,,,:,:[e-mail].(1980-),,,,:.1.,.2070,,,(Population)(Resource)(Environment)(Development)PRED,PRED[13].,,.PRED,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[59].PRED,.PRED,,[12].,,.,PRED.,PRED.111PREDPRED,.PRED,.PRED,,[10].,.,.,.112PREDPRED:1)PRED,,PRED.2)PRED,.3)PRED,.PRED.PRED,()()().PRED,PRED:C=(N,Q,T).C:PRED;N:PRED;Q:PRED;T:PRED;:.PRED:;;PRED.2PRED211PREDPRED,.,,.PRED,PRED,.PRED,()()()[11].,,21200512©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.);2);3);4);5).PREDN,.,mPRED(IDs):IDs={1,2,,m}(IDs).,IDs.212PREDIDs,,.m(),,()()()3.GNPGDP;;,,.,,.,,KrigingTIN.,,[13].213PRED,6PRED.IDs={}.1PRED:PRED();PRED();PRED().(1).214PRED3.,,3(CISD)..:21411Wi=EiPni=1Ei,,Wii,Eii.21412N,M,i:3112PRED©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.^F=^F1^F2^Fk=3K-13T,,,K,T.21413CISDCISD=ki=1ii,,i,ii.3PREDPRED,,PRED,.,PRED,.311PREDPRED,,.32,,7,;10,;8,;7,GDP.PRED,(),().PRED,,,..PRED,PRED,;,,.,19491985.312PRED,SPSS1010,PRED,.,,.,,PRED,19491985.PRED,PRED,.41200512,.©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,10,(015),019,.,,(015),.,,,,.,(015),PRED,.,10,,.5112PRED:.,832,.©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(19661967),PRED;,19491967,Ei,PRED,PRED.,PRED,,19661967,Ei0,.19681973,PREDEi0,,,PRED2EiF1F23EiF3F4,.19741985,PREDEi0,1978Ei015,,PRED,,.19841985PREDEi19831984110017,30%,61200512©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:1),,,.2),,PRED.,,1040km,60km,36km,.3).PRED.,,.PRED,.,.,,;,,.4).,,,,,,.,,.,.,,,;,;,,;,.5).PRED,,.,PRED.,,,,,,,,,.PRED,,,PRED.(31)7112PRED©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[10]RustRT,InmanJJ,JiaJ,ZahorikA.Whatyoudontknowaboutconsumerperceivedquality:theroleofconsumerexpectationdistributions[J].MarketingScience,1999,18(1):77-92.[11]BellDE.Disappointmentindecisionmakingunderuncertainty[J].OperationsResearch,1985,33:1-27.[12]LoomesG,SugdenR.Disappointmentanddynamicconsistencyinchoiceunderuncertainty[J].ReviewofEconomicStudies,1986,LIII:271-282.[13]LoomesG,SugdenR.Regrettheory:analternativetheoryofrationalchoiceunderuncertainty[J].1982,EconomicJournal,92(December):805-824.[14]TverskyA,KahnemanD.Lossaversioninrisklesschoice:areference2dependentmodel[J].TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,1991,106(November):1039-1061.[15]AndersonEW,SullivanMW.Theantecedentsandconsequencesofconsumersatisfactionforfirms[J].MarketingScience,1993,12(Spring):125-143.[16]BergerJO.StatisticalDecisionTheoryandBayesianAnalysis[M].SecondEdition,NewYork:Springer2Verlag,1985.[17]SamuelsonW,ZeckhauserR.Statusquobiasindecisionmaking[J].JournalofRiskandUncertainty,1988,1(March):7-59.(17):[1]BoveeKD.Developmentandevaluationofhabitatsuitabilitycriteriaforuseintheinstreamflowincrementalmethodology[R].InstreamFlowInformationPaperNo.21,USFishandWildlifeService,Washington,D.C:BiologicalReport1986.86(7).[2]RapportD,etal.EcosystemHealth[M].BlackwellScience,1998.[3]GoreJA,PettsGE.AlternativesinRegulatedRiverManagement[M].BocaRaton,Florida:CRCPress,1989.[4]GaoJiexi.SustainableDevelopmentTheoriesInvestigate2Ecosystem