全球互联网产业发展动向与趋势-mogen

1Pleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportan[e-mail]@[e-mail]–April2004MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.2Pleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage80.Overview•ThispresentationfocusesonthetwelvekeytrendsthatwebelievearedrivingchangesformanyaspectsoftheInternet.•Fordetailsonspecificcompanies,financialmodelsandvaluationthoughts,pleaseseeourcompanyandindustryresearchreports.3Pleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage80.Internet&PCApplicationsSoftwareIndustryInvestmentThesis(Attractive)•WecontinuetobelievethattheInternetisstillintheearlystagesofbecomingacentralcommunications,information,commerce,andentertainmentmedium.•Weestimatethereare750+millionInternetusersworldwideusingtheInternetanestimatedaverageof30-45minutesperday.WeexpectthenumberofInternetuserstogrowat15%+annuallyforthenextseveralyears,withstrongergrowthinnon-USmarkets.•Andwebelievethatusagegrowth(inpartbecauseofongoingbroadbandadoption)shouldcontinuetobehigher,thus,demonstratingcompellingunderlyinggrowthtrends.Source:MorganStanleyResearch;Nielsen/NetRatings:Feb2003US,Japan,Germany,UK,FranceandSwedenHomeandWorkInternetUsers4Pleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage80.•Giventhisrelativelyrobustunderlyinggrowth,wecontinuetobelievethattheleadingInternetcompaniesshould,overtime,beabletogeneratestrongdouble-digittop-linegrowth,andasthefinancialmodelsscaletowardshigherlong-termmargins,shouldbeabletogenerateevenstrongerearningsgrowth—AKAleverage.•Iftheleadersexecutetotheiropportunities,webelievethat,overthelongterm,theleaderscouldcontinuetodemonstrateclassicgrowth-stockundervaluationcharacteristics.Internet&PCApplicationsSoftwareIndustryInvestmentThesis(Attractive)continued5Pleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage80.1)WebelievetheInternetshouldprovetobethegrowthdistributionchannelofthedecade2)Search/find/obtain(SFO)isbecomingaglobalrealityandmaybethenext‘killerapplication’oftheInternet3)Residentialbroadband(withanestimated88MMglobalsubscribersasofCQ4:03)hashitcriticalmass,andpricingcontinuestodecline…4)TheunderlyinggrowthrateforglobalInternetusageremainsstrongandglobalmarketsareramping5)Onlinecontinuestogainsharefromoffline6)“Mindshare”wellabove“marketshare”demonstratesgrowthopportunity7)WeviewInternetmomentum/opportunityascompellingcomparedtoothermedia8)Consumerappearstobealiveandwellforkeytechnology-relatedpurchases.Smalltomedium-sizedbusinesses(SMBs)havebenefited9)Technologyplatform-drivenconvenience,low(andtransparent)prices/pricing,uniquelystrong24x7customerservice,andextensiveselectionhavebeenkeyfactorsbehindgrowth10)Onlineadvertisingtrendscouldsurpriseontheupside&onlinepremiumserviceshavebeguntoramp…11)Handfulofindustryleadersgainingshare…operatingleveragewithinherentlyscalablemodelsispowerful12)Positiveearningssurprisescanbe,moreoftenthannot,followedbymoreofthesame…KeyUnderlyingTrends6Pleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage80.1WebelievetheInternetshouldprovetobethegrowthdistributionchannelofthedecadeCompaniesthatbenefitedfromleveragingthePCastheirdistributionchannel—likeMicrosoftandAmericaOnline—createdsignificantnewbusinessesandshareholderwealth.Webelieveanemerginggroupofstillrelativelyearly-stagecompaniesshoulddothesamewiththeInternet.7Pleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage80.MarketCapChangePostIPO–MSFT,AOL,EBAY,YHOO&AMZN1986MicrosoftIPO1992AmericaOnlineIPOMktCap($MM)PCInternetApr’04$275BApr‘04$76BApr‘04$37BMar’92$62MMMar’86$519MMSource:WorldBank;MorganStanleyEstimate;AOLIPOMktCapisnotadjustedforTimeWarneracquisition.TimeWarner'smarketcapon3/92was$15BInternetUsers(MM)10050075030051996Yahoo!IPOApr‘04$19BApr’96$334MM1998eBayIPOApr‘04$50BSept’98$715MMMay’97$430MM1997Amazon.comIPO(MMUsers)InstalledPCs(MM)8Pleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage80.Internet-basedSupplyChainManagementisinitsInfancy…butit’sWorkingfortheInnovators…•Dell–3daysofinventoryon$12BinCQ4sales.Cashconversioncycleofnegative36days•eBay–zeroinventorywith$7BingrossmerchandisesalesinCQ4•Amazon.com–cashconversioncycleofnegative27daysinC2003•Cisco--Internet-relatedsavingsof$2.1BinF2003(July)9Pleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage80.Google,eBay,Amazon.com,Yahoo!,Expedia,MicrosoftandOverturehavedriventhis,anditbenefitsusers/vendorsasithelpsreducefrictionandmakesmarketsmoreefficient.AndstrongSFOmomentumformusic&digitalmediaanduseditemsisbecomingincreasinglyapparent.2Search/Find/Obtain(SFO)isbecomingaglobalrealityandmaybethenext‘killerapplication’of