Academic English-Growing grey

GrowinggreyJohnI.ClarkeandAndrewCravenThepopulationoftheworldisageing.Theproportionofelderlypeopleinbothdevelopedanddevelopingcountriesisgrowing.Thisarticleconsidersthestatisticsandsomeoftheimpactsofthisdemographicphenomenon.Itisrelevanttoanyonestudyingpopulationchange.Weliveinanageistsociety,inwhichpeoplearediscriminatedagainstonthegroundsofage.Thisiscurious,becausemostcountriesintheworldhaveageingpopulations,withagrowingproportionofoldpeoplewhowillhaveanincreasingimpactuponallaspectsofpolity,societyandeconomy.1Whoaretheold?Therearenosharpthresholdsseparatingtheoldandtheveryold(sometimeslessharshlycalledelderlyandveryelderly)fromtherestofthepopulation.Internationally,theUNPopulationDivisiondefinestheoldasthoseaged60andover(UnitedNations,2005).In2005therewereabout673millionoldpeopleaccordingtothisdefinition一10%oftheworldpopulationInthedevelopingworldthiswas8%ofthepopulationandinthedevelopedworld20%.TheratherlowUNthresholdof60makessenseinthedevelopingworld,aspeoplehavelowerlifeexpectanciesthere,butinthedevelopedworldasawholethoseaged60andoveralreadyoutnumberchildrenaged0-14.ThewidelyciteddatasheetsofthePopulationReferenceBureau(Haute,2005)usethehigherthresholdof65andoverasadefinitionofoldage.Accordingtothis,about7%oftheworldpopulationwereoldin2005:only5%ofthedevelopingworld,but15%ofthedevelopedworld.IntheUKwehavetended,ratheridiosyncratically,todefineoldpeopleasthoseofpensionableage-65andoverformenand60andoverforwomen.Thisisdespitethefactthatwomentendtooutlivemen.Atthe2001census18.4%oftheUKpopulation,or10.8millionpeople,fellintothiscategory.Fortunately,thegenderdifferenceinthedefinitionisbeingreplacedbyageneralmoveto65andover.2Whoaretheveryold?Demographersoftendistinguishbetweentheoldandtheveryold,becausetheydifferconsiderablyintheiractivities,health,medicalandhousingneeds,independence,socialintegration/segregationandintheircontributionstosociety.EvenaccesstotheInternettendstovarybyage.Again,thereisnoclearcutthresholdfortherapidlygrowingveryoldpopulation.SeventyfiveandoveriscommonlyusedintheUKandotherdevelopedcountries,and85andoverfortheincreasingnumbersofvery,veryold.However,theUNPopulationDivisionprovidesdataforanintermediateagegroup-theoldest-old-aged80andover.In2005thisgroupaccountedforonly1.3%oftheworldpopulation,andmorethanhalfofthemwereinthedevelopedworldwherelessthanafifthoftheworldpopulationwasliving(UnitedNations,2005)3MoreoldandveryoldpeopleAgeingofthepopulationismainlycausedby-theworldwidephenomenonoffertilitydecline,whichisbringingaboutwidespreadbutvariablereductionsinthepercentageofyoungpeople.Itisaugmentedbyincreasedlifeexpectancy.Thenumberofthoseaged60andoverintheworldisincreasingbyabout2%annually,fasterthanyoungeragegroups.In2000,therewereapproximatelythreetimesasmanypeopleaged60andoverintheworldasin1950;by2050theyareexpectedtotripleagaintoreach22%oftheworldtotal,oralmost1.9billion.Eightoutoftenofthemwillbelivinginthedevelopingworld.Naturally,thepercentageofoldpeople(Figure1)andtheirrateofincreasevariesamongcountries.In2005,thoseaged60andoverrangedfrommorethan25%inJapan,ItalyandGermanytolessthan5%inmosttropicalAfricancountriesandintheoil-richcountriesintheMiddleEastthatattractnumerousyoungworkers.By2050,therangeisexpectedtobeevenwiderfrommorethan40%inJapan(whichhasthelongestlifeexpectancyintheworld),Italy,theRepublicofKoreaandSloveniatostilllessthan5%inafewAfricancountries(EquatorialGuinea,LiberiaandSwaziland).Broadly,ageingofpopulationisfastestincountrieswithrapidfertilitydecline(e.g.,China,theRepublicofKorea,Tunisia,IranandAlgeria),andslowestintheleastdevelopedcountriesoftropicalAfrica(e.g.,Niger,Uganda)thathaveexperiencedlimitedfertilitydecline.Thesecontrastsbetweencountriesaremuchthesameifthe65-yearthresholdisused.InthisageingprocesstheUKisaboutaverageforadevelopedcountry.In2005,21%oftheUKpopulationwereaged60andover,andthisisexpectedtoriseto29%in2050.Bythistime.somedevelopedcountrieswillhavetwoelderlypeopleforeverychild.Thegeographicaldifferencesareevenmorestrikingamongtheoldestagegroups,whoseratesofgrowtharemorerapidstill.UNprojectionsindicatethattheworldpopulationofoldest-oldaged80andoverisincreasingby4.2%annually.Itisexpectedtogrowfrom87million(1.3%oftheworldtotal)in2005to394million(4.3%ofthetotal)in2050,70%ofthisgrouplivinginthedevelopedworld.InIndiaandChinathisgroupmaynumber100millionand53millionrespectivelyby2050.Howevermuchhigherpercentagesofoldest-oldarelikelytobefoundinsomedevelopedcountries:morethan15%inJapanandItaly,andupto9%intheUK(Figure2)Incontrast,manyAfricanpopulationswillstillhavelessthan1%oftheirpopulationsaged80andover.The2001censusintheUKgivesmorethan1.1millionpeople(1.9%)aged85andover.Thisis5.5timesthenumbercounted50yearsearlieratthe1951census.In2001thereweremorethanathirdofamillionaged90andover.Theveryoldisthefastestgrowingagegroup.4MoreoldwomenWomengenerallylivelongerthanmen,althoughthedifferencevariesfromover10yearsinmanycountriesvneasternEurope(13yearsinRussia)to1yearorlessinsomecountriesinsouth-centralAsia(Nepal,BangladeshandIndia).Sothemajorityofolderpeoplearew