2011Infonetics接入网市场分析报告

PON,FTTH,andDSLAggregationEquipmentandSubscribersMarketSize,Share,andForecasts–4Q10JeffHeynenDirectingAnalyst,BroadbandAccessCopyright©2011InfoneticsResearch,Inc.PON,FTTH,andDSLAggregationEquipmentandSubscribers,4Q10,March2011Serviceupdates•Sincethe3Q10deliveryofthisservice,we:–MergedourBroadbandAggregationHardwareandSubscribersandPONandFTTHEquipmentandSubscribersquarterlymarketshareandforecastreports–ExtendedourforecaststoCY15–AddedAPACsub-regionalbreakdown–Revisedthefollowingdata:–Zhone:2Q10-3Q10PONshipmentsand1Q10-3Q10EthernetFTTHCPEandserviceproviderequipment–ALU:EthernetFTTHserviceproviderequipmentbackto1Q09–UTStarcom:addedMSAPsbackto1Q10–ADTRAN:ATMandIPDSLAMbackto1Q10–Huawei:EPONandGPONrevenuebackto1Q09–Fiberhome:GPONrevenuebackto1Q10andEPONrevenuebackto4Q09–ZTE:EPON/GPON/10GEPON,ChinaMSAPs,andIPDSLAMsbackto1Q10–EthernetFTTHONTrevenueperunit(toaccountformostindoorunits)–DasanandCorecess:EPONONTsbackto1Q10•“Broadbandaggregationequipment”nowreferstoDSL,PON,andEthernetFTTHbroadbandaggregationequipment,whereasinourformerBroadbandAggregationHardwarereport,thetermreferredtoDSLonlyCopyright©2011InfoneticsResearch,Inc.PON,FTTH,andDSLAggregationEquipmentandSubscribers,4Q10,March2011Broadbandmarketup26%inCY10WorldwideBroadbandAggregationRevenue(US$Millions)%ChangeProductSegmentCY09CY104Q093Q104Q10CY10vsCY094Q10vs4Q094Q10vs3Q10DSLaggregation$3,717$4,062$1,007$1,089$1,090.89.3%8.3%0.2%PONeqpt.$1,655$2,863$490$784$844.573.0%72.3%7.7%EthernetFTTHeqpt.$313$254$70$64$64.4-18.8%-7.7%1.1%Total$5,685$7,180$1,567$1,936$2,00026.3%27.6%3.3%•Althoughnotuniversalacrossallthreeequipmenttypes,thefourthquarterusuallyseesadecentamountofyear-endbudgetflushingamongoperators,whichusuallybooststhemarketatthecloseoftheyear•Operatorsworldwidespentcapitaltoexpandtheiraddressablecustomerbasewhileimprovingbothbandwidthandtheservicesoffered•BothDSLaggregationandPONequipmentsawincreasesthisyear,withChinadrivingmuchofthegrowth,asall3majoroperatorsareinthemidstofamassivebroadbandnetworkbuildoutusingEPONandGPONinbothFTTBandFTTHconfigurations•NationalBroadbandStimulusplansintheUS,Portugal,Finland,China,andelsewherealsoboostedspending,aspremiumbroadbandaccessbecameabyproductofnationaleffortstoimproveeconomies,createjobs,andimprovecompetitivenessCopyright©2011InfoneticsResearch,Inc.PON,FTTH,andDSLAggregationEquipmentandSubscribers,4Q10,March2011$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000$9,000CY05CY06CY07CY08CY09CY10CY11CY12CY13CY14CY15Revenue(US$M)DSLAggregationPONEquipmentEthernetFTTHEquipmentDSLdeclineimpactslong-termforecast•ByCY15,thebroadbandaggregationmarketwilldeclineto$5.5B,a2010-2015CAGRof-5%•Overthenext5years,moreoperatorswillshifttheirinvestmentsfromDSLtofiber•WhileDSLasanaccesstechnologywillneverdisappear,overbuildingwithfiber(asVerizonandothershavedone)withtheultimategoalofremovingcopperwillcontinuetogrowamongtheworld’slargestoperators•Thegrowthofmobilebroadbandservices,particularlyLTE,willalsoeatintofixedbroadbandaccessgrowth,asagrowingnumberofoperatorswilluseLTEandWiMAXtoaddressruralandunderservedcommunitieswithouthavingtolayfiberCopyright©2011InfoneticsResearch,Inc.PON,FTTH,andDSLAggregationEquipmentandSubscribers,4Q10,March2011$0$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200NorthAmericaEMEAAPACCALARevenue(US$M)DSLAggregationPONEquipmentEthernetFTTHEquipmentAPACholds55%ofequipmentrevenue•ByCY15,APAC’sshareofrevenuedeclinesto46%,EMEAmovesupto26%,NorthAmericaclimbsto23%,whileCALAstaysflataround5%•AfterthemassiveinvestmentbyChinaoverthenextthreeyears,theAPACregionwilldeclineasthefocuswillshifttoturningupsubscribersonthenewinfrastructure•Thoughanewinvestmentcycleintheregionwillbegin,focusedon10GEPONandGPON,itwon’tbetothepointwheretherewillbeawholesalereplacementofexistingfibertechnologies•In4Q10,APACwastheworldwiderevenueshareleaderwith55%,followedbyEMEAwith23%,NorthAmerica17%,CALA5%–InvestmentinPONandDSLinfrastructurebeingundertakenbyChina’smajoroperatorsputstheregionheadandshouldersaboveeveryother•InCY10,theregionalsplitslooksimilarto4Q10,withAPACholding56%ofrevenue,followedbyEMEAwith23%,NorthAmerica17%,CALA4%Copyright©2011InfoneticsResearch,Inc.PON,FTTH,andDSLAggregationEquipmentandSubscribers,4Q10,March2011HuaweileadsQ410revenueshare•Huaweiderivesnearly71%ofitstotalworldwiderevenuefromthedomesticChinesemarket($500millionof$699millionworldwiderevenue)•ZTEisevenmoredependentonthedomesticmarket,withalmost86%oftotalbroadbandrevenuecomingfromChina–BothvendorsremainhighlyleveragedinChina,whichposesadangershouldthegovernmentorthe3majoroperatorsshifttheirfocusawayfromfixedbroadband–Huaweihasdoneafarbetterjobofthis,expandingintoEMEAandCALA,whileZTEhasreallyonlyfoundamajorfootholdinCALA•InCY10,Huaweifinishedwith32%ofworldwiderevenue,followedbyZTEwith18%,andAlcatelLucentwith13%Huawei35%ZTE19%Alcatel-Lucent13%Calix4%Tellabs3%Other26%4Q10BroadbandAggregationRevenueMarketShareCopyright©2011InfoneticsResearch,Inc.PON,FTTH,andDSLAggregationEquipmentandSubscribers,4Q10,March2011PONrevenuepeaksinCY12•In4Q10,worldwidePONrevenueincreased8%from3Q10•InCY10,worl