技术路线图的发展与应用分析

730000TRM。TRM、。TRMTRM、。G350A1003-6938200903－0008-06TheDevelopmentandApplicationoftheTechnologyRoadmapLiLiZhangZhiqiangAnPeijunTheLanzhouBranchoftheNationalScienceLibraryofChineseAcademyofSci－encesLanzhouGansu730000AbstractAsamethodofstrategicplanning,theapplicationoftheTRMhasbeenbroadenwidelyfromtheproduct-TRMtothescienceRMandS&TRMinthepasttenyears.TheTRMcanhelptheinformationresearcherimprovetheabilityofforesightandsupportthedecision-makerswithS&Tplanning.ThispapertracesbacktothedevelopmentprocessoftheTRM,whichcanbedividedintofourstages,andanalyzesmainfeaturesandsignsofeachstage.TheTRMcanbeap－pliedtomanyareasindifferentlevels,anditisalsoofgreatsignificanceforinformationresearch.TheauthorshopethatthestudycanpromotethestudyandapplicationofTRMintheinformationresearchinourcountry.KeywordstechnologyroadmapS&TinformationresearchdevelopmentcourseapplicationCLCnumber：G350Documentcode：AArticleID：1003-6938200903-0008-0612070、“”。、、。。SWOT、、BCG、。、。。1。。··“”“”“Roadmapping”。2009-01-132009382009322.1、、。。RobertGalvin。2Sandia、。。3、、。4TechnologyRoadmapTechnologyRoadmapping。、、、。2.2———————————————。5“—————————”“—————————”1、、。“”。。“”。、。。。、。1Roadmapping3TheCenterforTechnologyManagement、、LearningTrust。19932006900、。1994~20052。22。20909。、3.12070～1987。207080。6。。3.21987～19921987WillyardMcClees《Motorola’stechnologyroadmapprocess》。7。。。3.31992～20001992SIA。。BPPhilips199519968。2090。。。。3.42001～21。。。9101112R&D13。、14、15TRIZ1617。。3.5。、、14、、、。4.11①。。。18②。TRM。、。19。③。。。：10200932①。20。②。。21、R&D。③。。。④。、、。⑤。、、milestones。3。Program-level22Project-level。、、。。4Macintosh23Brown。24。2533。、。、。。。。4.2———12070～19871987～19921992～20002001～《Motorola’stechnologyroadmapprocess》1992①②③。、①、②、、、、R&D、11、。、。2630%。、。NASA。35。4.3、。。。。。27、workshop。4.4。、、、。、2829200730。5。、。、。“—————————”。。。。1HolmesCFerrillM.TheApplicationofOperationandTechnologyRoadmappingtoAidSingaporeanSMEsI－dentifyandSelectEmergingTechnologiesJ.Technol－ogyForecastingandSocialChange.2005723349-357.2GalvinR.ScienceRoadmapsEB/OL.2008-06-26.http//－agement200182132-143.：12200935MartinRinne.TechnologyroadmapsInfrastructureforinnovationJ.TechnologicalForecasting&SocialChange20047167-80.6.、J.2005101-4.7WillyardCMcCleesC.Motorola’sTechnologyRoadmapProcessJ.ResearchManagement19879/1013-19.8GroenveldP.RoadmappingIntegratesBusinessandTechnologyJ.ResearchTechnologyManagement199740548-55.924BrownRO’HareS.TheUseofTechnologyRoadmappingasAnEnablerofKnowledgeManage－mentEB/OL.2008-05-14.http//ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel5/7471/20305/00938216.pdf?arnumber=938216.10PhaalRFarrukhCProbertD.AFrameworkforSupportingtheManagementofTechnologicalKnowl－edgeJ.InternationalJournalofTechnologyManage－ment.20042711-15.1125.J..2007241-47.12KostoffRNBoylanRSimonsGR.DisruptiveTechnologyRoadmapsJ.TechnologicalForecasting&SocialChange2004711/2141-159.13J覿ger-WaldauA.R&DRoadmapforPVJ.TheSolidFilms.2004451/452448-454.14YangChunyanYuMing.ResearchonApplyingAnalyticHierarchyProcessApproachtoTechnologyRoadmappingR.HawaiiInternationalSymposiumontheAnalyticHierarchyProcessISAHP2003.15LizasoFRegerG.Scenario-basedRoadmapping-AConceptualViewR.PotsdamEU-USSeminarNewTechnologyForesightForecasting&AssessmentMethods2004.16MartinGM.TRIZ-basedTechnology-roadmappingJ.TechnologyIntelligenceandPlanning20041123-26.17LeeSParkY.CustomizationofTechnologyRoadmapsAccordingtoRoadmappingPurposes.OverallprocessanddetailedmodulesJ.TechnologicalForecasting&So－cialChange2005725567-583.18AlbrightRE.ACommonRoadmapFrameworkEB/OL.2008-04-15.http//———J.2006198-100.20MacKenzieDRDonaldSHarringtonMetal.D.MethodsinScienceRoadmapping-HowtoPlanRe－searchPrioritiesEB/OL.2007-11-27.http//－mentScienceandTechnologyRoadmappingEB/OL.2008-03-17.http//－bridgeEB/OL.2008-06-26.http//“StrategicTechnologyRoadmapSRT2007”EB/OL.2008-05-14.http//《》J.200853-6.（1982-），，，：；（1964-），，，，：；（1979-），，，：。13