71中国经济增长_外商直接投资和出口贸易的互动实证分析

71200710()ChinaEconomicQuarterlyVol17,No11October,200732819782000,PetroniArellanoBond,,:,,3,,:SchoolofContemporaryChineseStudies,UniversityofNottingham,Nottingham,UK,NG72RD;:0044211528467144;E2mail:[e-mail],:MiddlessexUniversityBusinessSchool,TheBurrough,London,UK,NW44BT;:0044220283813656;E2mail:[e-mail],119881997,,,28,31207080(Yao,2000)80,(Rozelle,1994)(YaoandZhang,2001;Groveetal1,1994;Hayetal1,1994),,28197820001Pedroni(1999)Arel2152()7lanoandBond(1998),,,,,(Chen,etal1,1995;Pan,1998;Pomfret,1997;Harrold,1995;Lard2y,1995;SenguptaandEspana,1994;Yue,1999;Dowling,1997;Greena2way,1998),(Romer,1986;Sala2I2Martin,1996)(NIEs),,(Balassa,1988),,,(Brohm2an,1996):,(Hymer,1976;Dunning,1993;Caves,1974,1996;BlomstromandSjoholm,1999;Globerman,1979),(EthierandMarkusen,1996;Brainard,1993;JanickiandWunnava,2004;Barbosa,GuimaraesandWoodward,2004)(GrossmanandHelpman,1995;Jensen,2002),,,?()1985,ChuangandHsu(2004),Choi(2004),1:153Wang,SilerandLiu(2002),,,(ChakrabortyandBasu,2002;Filippaios,PapanastassiouandPearce,2003;Deichemann,KaridisandSayek,2003)Park(2003)Love(2003),(205060),(207080)90(Park,2003),(R&D),,(Love,2003),Liu,BurridgeandSinclair(2002)Sha(2002)(VAR),,,,Pedroni(1999)ArellanoandBond(1998)DPDGMMCobb2Douglas,(Y),(L)154()7(K)(1)Y=ALKet+v,(1)A,e0(1),t,,v,YLKY,A,,,,,YLK,11,,,,(1)AA=F(,,,,,).(2)(1)(2),Cobb2Douglas(3)ln(GDP)it=0+1ln(labour)it+2ln(capital)it+3ln(humancapital)it+4ln(exchange)t+5ln(FDI)it+6ln(export)it+7ln(transport)it+8(east)+9D9295+10(time)+vit,(3)1:155iti(i=1,2,,28)t(t=1978,1979,,2000)GDP,east,D9295,199219951,,time,(vit)1990(,1996;,19972002),(Islam,1995),[FleisherandChen(1997)/],,,(Liu,1997;Liu,2000)19901990(1=RBM41784),,,,,(),1000,1100161841190156()7(Liuetal1,1997;FleisherandChen,1997),,412711001106,4127,1106,,,DPD(),(4)Kit+1=(1-)Kit+Iit+1pKi,(4)K,I,pk,(i)(t),,,,19781978197850%,015,,715%,1313,,,(OLS)(3),,(3),,,,,,(),()1:15719921995(5)ln(export)it=0+1ln(GDP)it+2ln(exchange)it+3(east)+4D9295+5ln(export)it-1+eit.(5)(3),(6)ln(FDI)it=0+1ln(GDP)it+2ln(wages)it+3ln(exchange)it+4ln(transport)it+5ln(humancapital)it+6(east)+7D9295+8ln(FDI)it-1+eit.(6)(3),,,;,,(),,19786,19846,4,1991441992,110,1993275,1995375,2001469(1)158()71,19782001(10)((10)19800.4318.20.049.719851.727.41.149.419862.030.91.663.619872.439.43.066.519882.847.55.269.719893.152.58.371.319903.562.112.574.419914.471.816.877.5199211.085.020.479.9199327.591.827.581.8199433.8121.028.783.7199537.5148.831.785.6199641.7151.140.785.5199745.3182.741.086.9199845.5183.744.188.8199940.3194.945.589.8200040.7249.247.989.9200146.9266.249.090.2:198019781984:,(20012002),,(2002),612;Lardy(1995),1,6,7;Pomfred(1997),2,3,,(1999),593,(2002),628,19962001;Lardy(1995)Pomfred(1997),,(2002),613,Lardy(1995)Pomfred(1997)()1995,88%,27%,1980,198414,19881991,,2219841985,54131%,812%,7182%,810%,3181%,2185%2134%(,19841998),,()1:159,19801821990621,20002492,20131719782320007(NolanandWang,2000)2002,2003,2439,20023315%(,2003),198050%200090%206070,8090(),80,1990,1215%,200149%(1),,2080,208090,,19941,(ChouandShih,1998)1978111682000181278,400%,200%(2)2()Yuan/(CPI)1990=100(CPI)1990=100Yuan/19781.68047.349.91.77419791.55048.255.51.78619801.50051.163.01.85119811.70552.369.52.26719821.89353.373.82.62219831.97654.176.22.78319842.32755.679.53.32619852.93760.582.33.99419863.45364.583.94.49619873.72269.287.04.68019883.72282.290.54.09819893.76697.094.93.68419904.784100.0100.04.78419915.323103.4104.35.369160()7()Yuan/(CPI)1990=100(CPI)1990=100Yuan/19925.515110.0107.45.38619935.762126.2110.65.05319948.619156.5113.56.24719958.351183.3116.75.31619968.314198.5120.15.03219978.290204.1122.84.98919988.279202.4124.75.10119998.278199.6127.55.28720008.278200.4131.85.44420018.277201.8135.55.558:REt=OEt(CPIUS/CPIChina),REOE,CPI199019781985CPICPI:CPI,(1997),267;(2002),295CPI,(19802002),Datastream,(1996),(2002),612()DPD(3)(5)(6),,Pedroni(1999)(7)yi,t=i+it+6Mj=1ijxij,t+ei,t,fort=1,,T;i=1,,N;j=1,,M.(7)(3)(5)(6),T=23,,N=28,Mei,t(8)^i1^ei,t=^i^ei,t-1+vi,t.(8)(7),(8)y,,(Petroni,1999)1:161Pedroni-119633(2823)Levin2LinLevin2Lint-Levin2LinADFIPSADF5.337.865.117.28-2.36-4.93-0.67-0.130.672.311.540.712.171.383.393.722.363.413.844.460.611.521.39-1.374.005.236.418.623.485.045.626.493.254.214.125.541.822.132.283.09:=,-11965%,(,)I(1),,4,,,(group2group2ADF),,,,(3),()4A(1)A(4)A(3)Panel2pp0.44-6.78-5.35Panel2ADF-1.28-4.80-6.39Group2-5.03-3.18-1.98Group2pp0.61-7.20-5.39Group2ADF-3.32-12.31-8.25:,-1.965%162()7,ArellanoandBond(1998)DPD(),,,,,,(t-2,t-3),(t-1),,,,M1M2()()5DPDGMMM1M2(ArellanoandBond,1998),SarganppWald,(R2),90%,t199219955%10%,5%,1:16351978200028XÄsÄst2valueXÄsÄst2valueXÄsÄst2value-17.50-1.75-0.781-3.11-3.044-4.050.40812.100.1874.830.1652.310.4708.750.1411.950.1140.960.0512.360.2813.150.6262.730.1026.76D92950.2163.450.1511.660.0061.69(-1)0.79313.190.0410.510.11110.290.3703.570.0391.78D92950.6294.960.0300.49(-1)0.79816.83D92950.0192.610.0112.01R20.96R20.94R20.91Waldp=0.00Waldp=0.00Waldp=0.00Sarganp=0.88SarganN.A.SarganN.A.M1-1.56p=0.12M1-1.295p=0.18M1-0.8980.33M2-0.86p=0.39M20.718p=0.46M2-0.8190.48