李星--互联网发展趋势探讨

互联网发展趋势探讨李星2010-08-17大纲•趋势•挑战2•动向•探讨趋势3趋势Cloudcomputing4MobileInternet5Internetofthings6Tripleplay7Smartgrid8Networkbasedbattlefield9挑战10挑战IPv4地址耗尽问题11IPv4路由表爆炸问题12流量爆炸和经济模型问题2004200420042004----2011201120112011年宽带用户年宽带用户年宽带用户年宽带用户、、、、收入收入收入收入、、、、流量增长流量增长流量增长流量增长472174000050000宽带流量（GB）宽带用户（万）Numberofbroadbandusers,incomeandtrafficNumberofbroadbandusers(10K)Traffic(GB)13221590126322014737101942194073236468559847031420220130743946010000200003000020042005200620072008200920102011宽带用户（万）宽带接入收入（亿）Numberofbroadbandusers(10K)Broadbandincome(10M)安全问题14动向15动向GENI16Internet217IPv4addressdepletion18探讨19探讨IPv6地址分布（1）20地址分布（2）21路由公布（1）22路由公布（2）23=6IPv6产品认证2424十年来的过渡实践TranslationIVIDual-StackNFSCNETTunnelIPv6overIPv4CERNET-6BoneTunnelIPv4overIPv6IETFsoftwireWGSAVI•IETFWG•IETFRFC521025IVIBi-directionStatelessTranslationIETFBehaveWGIPv6onlyCERNET2•100universities•1MsubscribersCERNET-6BoneRFC5565IPv4CERNET•1500universities•20Msubscribers19942001200420052008199820062007GlobalIPv4GlobalIPv6CERNET/CNGI-CERNET2互通26CERNET(IPv4)CERNET2(IPv6)26IVIIPv4-accessibleservers/clientsIPv4/IPv6过渡策略SupportIPv6(IVI)SupportIPv4IPv4areaIPv6areaServiceSupportIPv6(non-IVI)TransitionIPv4IPv627SupportIPv4SupportIPv6(IVI)NetworkUserV4onlyNetworkV6onlyNetworkIVISupportIPv6(non-IVI)互联网技术的重要优势一、为用户开发创新性应用搭建了开放平台28IPIPv6IPv4二、包容和使用几乎所有通信和网络技术