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TheRelativeRichnessofthePoor?NaturalResources,HumanCapitalandEconomicGrowth¤ClaudioBravo-OrtegayWorldBankandDepartmentofEconomicsUniversidaddeChileJos´eDeGregoriozBancoCentraldeChileCommentswelcomeAbstractArenaturalresourcesablessingoracurse?Inthispaperwepresentamodelinwhichnaturalresourceshaveapositiveeffectonlevelofincomeandanegativeeffectonitsgrowthrate.Thepositiveandpermanenteffectonincomeimpliesawelfaregain.Thereisagrowtheffectstemmingfromacompositioneffect.However,weshowthatthiseffectcanbeoffsetbyhavingalargelevelofhumancapital.Wetestourmodelusingpaneldatafortheperiod1970-1990.Weextendtheusualspecificationsforeconomicgrowthregressionsbyincorporatinganinteractiontermbetweenhumancapitalandnaturalresources,showingthathighlevelsofhumancapitalmayoutweighthenegativeeffectsofthenaturalresourceabundanceongrowth.WealsoreviewthehistoricalexperienceofScandinaviancountries,whichincontrasttoLatinAmerica,anotherregionwellendowedwithnaturalresources,showshowitispossibletogrowfastbasedonnaturalresources.JELClassification:J24,O41,O57,Q00.¤WewouldtothankspeciallytoMauriceObstfeldforhiscommentsthathelpedgreatlyimproveourempiricalwork.WealsowouldliketothankPranabBardhan,A.DeMichaelis,JuliandiGiovanni,Andr´esG´omez-Lobo,BotondK˝oszegi,PatricioMeller,TedMiguel,DavidRomer,J.P.StijnsandtheparticipantsoftheSeminarsattheUniversidaddeChile,UniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeley,andattheWorldBankandCentralBankofChilejointconferenceonNaturalResourcesandGrowthfortheirhelpfulcomments.ClaudioBravo-OrtegawouldalsoliketothankCIEPLANandtheMinistryoftheEconomyfortheirsupportandhospitalityatdifferentstagesofthisresearch.yAddress:TheWorldBank,MSNI-8-8011818HStreet,N.W.Washington,DC20433.E-mail:cbravoortega@worldbank.orgzE-mail:jdegrego@bcentral.clPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorized1IntroductionDuringthelastdecademanyeconomistshavereturnedtothefamiliarquestionofwhetherthereisanyrelationshipbetweenacountry’sabundanceofnaturalresourcesanditsrateofeconomicgrowthorlevelofincome.Few,however,haveaskedunderwhatcircumstancesnaturalresourcescanserveasanengineofgrowth.Moreover,thediscussionhasbeenlimitedtothestudyoftheeffectsongrowthonly,insteadoflookingalsoatthelevelofincome,eventhoughthelatterismorecloselyrelatedtowelfare.Inthispaperweanalyzebotheffects.Weshowthatthediscoveryofnaturalresourcesleadstoadeclineintherateofgrowth,butalsotoanincreaseinincomethatraiseswelfare.Theeconomichistoryofthelasttwocenturiesshowsmixedevidenceinthisre-gard.Duringthenineteenthcenturyandthefirsthalfofthetwentiethcentury,severalcountriesunderwentdevelopmentexperiencesinwhichnaturalresourcesseemtohavebeentheengineofeconomicgrowth.ThemostnotablecasesincludeAustralia,Scan-dinaviaandtheUnitedStates(SeeWright,1990andBlomstromandMeller,1990,amongothers).However,itishardtofindsuccessfulexperiencesofsuchdevelopmentinthesecondhalfofthetwentiethcentury.Indeed,inmanycountriesthenaturalresourcessectorhasbeenblamedfortheunderdevelopmentorslowgrowthoftheeconomy.Thislackofvariationinexperiences,ofcourse,limitsourabilitytousethesemorerecentdatatoanalyzethewholepotentialvarietyofactualexperiencewithnaturalresourcesanddevelopment.Themainstreamliteratureoneconomicgrowthhasfocusedontechnicalchangeandontheaccumulationofphysicalandhumancapital,largelydisregardingthein-teractionbetweenthesetwofactorswithindifferenteconomicstructures.Themainexceptionhasbeentheresearchontheeffectsofopennessoneconomicgrowth(Ed-wards,1997).Thissituationhasgeneratedaconceptualgapinourunderstandingoftheimpactoftheproductivestructureoneconomicgrowth.Duringthe1970smanyeconomistsstudiedthemacroeconomiceffectsandchangesintheproductivestructureresultingfromashocktothenaturalresourcessector—theso-calledDutchdisease.1Nevertheless,thisconceptualframeworkexplainsonlytherealappreciationofthecurrencyandtheprocessoffactorreallocationthatac-1OntheliteratureonDutchdisease,see,forexample,NearyandVanWijnbergen(1986).1companiesit,withoutderivinglong-runimplicationsforeconomicgrowth.However,theideabehindthelong-runeffectsoftheDutchdiseaseisthattherealappreciationthatresultsfromanaturalresourcesboomisdetrimentaltoexport-ledgrowthanddevelopment.TounderstandtheeffectsofDutchdiseaseoneconomicgrowth,itisnecessarytoidentifythelong-runmechanismsthatlinkshockstothenaturalresourcessec-torwiththecountry’sproductivestructureandlong-runperformance.Matsuyama(1992),SachsandWarner(1995),andmorerecentlyAseaandLahiri(1999),amongothers,haveattemptedsuchananalysis.Yetthegapinourtheoreticalunderstandingremainswide.Thispapertriestonarrowthatgapbydevelopingastylizedmodeloftwoproductivesectors,toconsiderboththedynamiceffectsofendogenousgrowththeoryandthereallocativeeffectsderivedfromtheDutchdiseaseliterature.Weemphasizetheinteractionbetweennaturalresourcesandhumancapital,aswellastheireffectsonlevelsofincomeandratesofeconomicgrowth,inordertoexplainwhycountrieswithanabundanceofnaturalresourcesandwithhighlevelsofhumancapitalmaybeabletoreachahigherlevelofwelfare.Moreover,weshowthat,undercertainassumptions,ahighlevelof
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