经济发展战略对劳均资本积累和技术进步的影响(1)

1No.C200300120032252BarroBarroandSala-i-Martin19972002197820003020022919782000GDPMankiwMankiw,etal.1992Barro1991199220002001JianJianetal.1996Tusi19961997199619992002Cheng(2002)200120023Kumaretal.2002Hendersonetal.2001Maudosetal.2000Gumbau-Albert20001KumarKumaretal.2002MaudosMaudosetal.2000Gumbau-AlbertGumbau-Albert2000HendersonHendersonetal.2001KumarKumaretal.2002MaudosMaudosetal.2000Gumbau-AlbertGumbau-Albert2000HendersonHendersonetal.2001122Panel124OECDU1ABABA1B11ABAA11BB11A2B2AA21A21BB21B211BBA5BHendersonHendersonetal.2001NNkRx+∈tkTMMkRy+∈t12…TT(x1,y1),(x2,y2),…,(xT,yT)ttkT{}1...................|),(kkkktkyxyxT=1tzNnxxzMmyyzyxTntknmtkmkktk,...,2,1,0)2......(....................,,...,1,,,...,1,:),{(11=Γ≥=≤=≥=Γ=ΓΓΓ=ΓΓΓ∑∑FäreFäre,etal.1994p.71ttt(){()})3.........(),(,:),(inf),(tkkktkkkkktkkktkTyxyxyxyxD∈=ΓΓΓΓΓΓΓΓθθtt+i)4...(,ittTTtkitk+⊄+4tTtxitx+336),(,ttttttyxDyy=),(,itittitittyxDyy++++=1+tTtxitx+),(,ttitttityxDyy++=),(,itititititityxDyy++++++=kt+iity+tty)5........(),(),(),(),(),(),(),(),(),(),(2/12/1⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎣⎡⋅⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛⋅⋅⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛⋅⋅=+++++++++++++++++tititkitktktktktkitkitkitktktkitktktkitktktktkitkitkitkitkitktktktktkitkitkitktityyyxDyxDyxDyxDyxDyxDyxDyxDyxDyxDyy5ity+/tyECTPtt+iINCECTPMalmquist54),(tktktkyxD),(itkitkitkyxD+++),(tktkitkyxD+),(itkitktkyxD++),(tktktkyxD()()tzNnxxzMmyyxyztsyxMaxyxDktkntknktkmtktktktkmktktktktktktk,...,2,1,0)6.........(,,...,1,,,...,1,),(..),(),(111=Γ≥=≤=⋅≥=Γ=ΓΓΓ=ΓΓΓ−∑∑θθ),(itkitkitkyxD+++66tt+i),(tktkitkyxD+()()itzNnxxzMmyyxyztsyxMaxyxDktknitknktkmtktkitkitkmktktkitktktkitk+=Γ≥=≤=⋅≥=Γ+=ΓΓΓ++=ΓΓΓ+−+∑∑,...,2,1,0)7....(..........,,...,1,,,...,1,),(..),(),(111θθ),(itkitktkyxD++777tt+it+it29171978-200029GDPGDPGDPGDP119991978-1998GDPGDP1999-2000GDPGDP1978GDP19991952-19951996-20011978-2000Harberger19781978Harberger(1978)19788245Coelli1996DEAP2951122000GDP19785iiiiii1356GDP711978-200029GDP2000GDP/1978GDP(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)4.97951.00002.32522.14155.66941.00002.64182.14608.64711.00003.44162.51252.95231.00001.83501.60899.37901.00003.43962.72683.87181.00002.04221.89593.73121.00002.26561.64695.57531.00002.57772.16294.70301.00002.40221.95783.10311.00001.79631.72755.11400.91862.53712.19434.22241.00002.23471.88954GDP56GDP792000GDP/1978GDP4.15281.00002.27921.822110.35451.00003.33453.10535.18631.00002.51082.06563.83611.00002.14671.78704.80771.00002.31332.07833.23391.00002.11671.52782.62461.00002.86160.91726.28941.00002.75432.28354.38551.00002.33881.87514.24121.00002.25021.88486.29811.00002.59642.42575.45101.00002.44112.23306.16421.00002.72732.26024.29721.00002.55621.681110.03431.00003.48532.87903.63081.00002.05471.76701III1022002TCI)8(..................................................*⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛=⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛iiiiLKfLKiiLK/TCI//)9......(........................................)/()/(iiiiLKLKTCI=TCI*TCI//88)10(..................................................*⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛⋅=⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛iiiiLKLKωω*TCI811)11...(..............................)/()/(**ω==iiiiLKLKTCI*TCITCI9)12..(....................*ω−=−=TCITCITCIDSDS=0DS0DS0DS0DS0ωTCI3II)13....(2,010iiiiuXDSKPLKPLG++⋅+⋅+=ψααα13iiKPL,0iDSX9TCI*12iu10iKPLG15GDP1978-200022iKPLG1978-2000GDP11I13iKPL,0KumarKumaretal.2002MaudosMaudosetal.2000Gumbau-Albert20001978GDPiKPL,0IKumarKumaretal.2002MaudosMaudosetal.2000Gumbau-Albert2000GDPGDPGDPGDP1978GDPiTECH,0iKPL,0iKPL,013iDSIiKPL,01321ααω=*TCIiDS1011GDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDP13ω13(13))31....(2,01′+⋅+⋅+⋅+=iiiKiuXTCIKPCCKPLGψαα(13)ωαα⋅−=10KCI(13)21ααBarroetal.1991,199212Barro12ωα1−I(13)iTCI200213iTCIiTCI1978-2000221978-1999iTCITCI7899TCI7899TCI7899TCI7899TCI7899TCI7899TCI7899RobustTCI_5_ATCI788519781980198519901995TCI1978-1985TCI14TCI7885TCI7899TCI788512BarroHarrod13TCITCI141978-1985TCI198514(13)XiSAVMankiwMankiwetal.1992⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛=∑=20001978tiiiGDPISAV1516GDPiLABGiHUMK821982(13)iiuVaruEςσ21)(,0)(==4IIII)14....(2,010iiiiYDSTECHTECHGελγγγ++⋅+⋅+=GDP171516Solow17SolowHarrodHarrod15142214iTECH,0IIiTECH,0141γKumarKumaretal.2002MaudosMaudosetal.2000Gumbau-Albert2000GDPiTECH,0GDPGDPiTECH,014I)41...(2,01′++⋅+⋅+=iiiTiYTCITECHCTECHGελγγ(14)ωγγ′−0TCII(14)21γγYIFDIi1978-200018(14),iiVarEϑσεε⋅==22)(,0)((13)(14)218FDIFDIR&DFDI2IIIKPLGTECHGKPL0TECH0TCI7899TCI7885TCI_5_ASAVLABGHUMK82FDI0.03460.0384-1.0528-0.80706.170410.50707.35140.38150.02940.483412.6270.03470.0442-0.0621-0.40402.54333.88593.23920.40320.01480.778014.1640.04190.0562-0.6996-0.99443.80996.41575.11450.39570.02970.552515.0240.02160.0276-0.7426-0.68318.81548.68958.43090.35870.03660.467410.7940.04560.0562-0.7308-0.83453.23474.01623.63440.26100.02620.659216.0910.02910.0325-0.9716-1.04326.26636.95356.37290.32030.02670.614713.3660.02270.0372-1.0119-1.16627.742211.82628.75580.17140.02900.435810.6040.03510.0430-0.7177-0.78683.81845.21524.18290.29480.02320.636513.6060.03050.0398-0.7659-1.14265.30997.71405.99730.36000.02980.570212.9960.02480.0266-0.2165-0.59463.40115.16874.19630.33830.02290.678112.8180.03570.0423-0.7778-0.82015.07696.98415.44200.42500.02050.625113.3640.02890.0366-0.7749-1.02685.94118.96176.88920.41970.02270.673313.1670.02730.0374-0.2936-0.82984.06114.72304.13290.43660.0