人口红利与经济增长关系研究综述

©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(173)POPULATION&ECONOMICSNo.2,2009(Tot.No.173),(,430072):,,,:;;;:C92-05:A:1000-4149(2009)02-0055-05:2008-07-21:(1966-),,,,StudyontheRelationbetweenPopulationDividendandEconomicGrowthZHONGShui2ying,LIKui(SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,WuhanUniversity,Wuhan430072,China)Abstract:Demographicdividendpromoteseconomicgrowththroughthelaborsupplyandparticipation,savingsincreasing,aswellaspublicinvestmentstimulating.Inordertomaximizetheuseofdemographicdividend,itisofgreatneedtoabsorbthelaborforce,optimizethelaborallocationsystemandstrengthentheinvestmentoflaborquality.Keywords:demographicdividend;demographictransition;agingstructure;economicgrowth,,,(Demographictransition),,,,,[1],,,,,,,21,[23]111998,(1998),[4],,55©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[5],,,,,,,,,:;21,,,,,,,,19902030,40,20102010,,2030,1990,[68],,19822000,2000,20132015,,[910]31,,,(),[11],()[12],1957,,30%23%53%(65),[13],,,,[14],,[15]1798,,()()(DavidCanning),,,,,65©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[16],1P4[17],15%[18],23171%[19],:,,[20],,[21](T.W.Schultz)(RobertLucas)S.(Becker),,,,21,,U,(Modigliani),,,,;,,,[22](LouisKuijs),2430%[23],16%,,,(Leff),196474,2747,[24](Loayza),,315%,1%2%[25],-01109-01113,[26],:,;[27]31,,,;,[28],,75.[C].,20061©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[29],11,,,[30],,,,,[31],,,,,,,,,,[32],21,[33],[34],:;,,,,,,[35],,,,[36]31,,,,;,,,,,,[37],,85©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:[1]DavidE.BloomandJeffreyG.Williamson.DemographicTransitionandEconomicMiraclesinEmergingAsia,WorldBankEconomicReview,1998,12(3):419-4551[2].[J].,2003,(1).[3].21[J].,2007,(1).[4]Mason,Andrew.PopulationChangeandEconomicDevelopmentinEastAsia:ChallengesMet,OpportunitiesSeized.Stanford,StanfordUniversityPress,20011[5]Bloom,DavidE.DavidCanning,andJaypeeSevilla,TheDemographicDividend:ANewPerspectiveontheEconomicConsequencesofPopulationChange,1998,RAND.[6][2].[7].:[J].,2005,(6).[8][3].[9].[J].,2004,(2).[10].[J].,2007,(1).[11]Mason,AndrewandRonaldLee.ReformandSupportSystemsfortheElderlyinDevelopingCountries:CapturingtheSecondDemographicDividend.InternationalSeminarontheDemographicWindowandHealthyAging:SocioeconomicChallengesandOpportunities,ChinaCentreforEconomicResearch,PekingUniversity,Beijing,20041[12].[M].:,20061[13][7].[14].,?[J].,2007,(6).[15].[J].,2008,(2).[16][5].[17][9].[18],.[J].,2006,(3).[19],.[J].,1999,(10).[20][10].[21],.[J].,2007,(1).[22]Modigliani,F.andBrumburg,R.UtilityAnalysesandtheConsumptionFunction,Chapter15,inPostKeynesianEconomics,K.K.Kurihara(ed).NewBrunswick,NJ:RutgersUniversityPress,19541[23]LouisKuijs.InvestmentandSavinginChina,WorldBankPolicyResearchWorkingPaper3633,20051[24]Leff,NathanislH.DependencyRateandSavingRate.AmericanEconomicReview,1969,59(5):8868961[25]Loayza,N.Schmidt-Hebbel,K.andServn,L.:WhatDrivesSavingacrosstheWorld.ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,2000,82(2):1651811[26],,.[J].,2004,(5).[27],,.:[J].,2001,(1).[28].[J].,2007,(6).[29].?[J].,2007,(6).[30][9].[31][2].[32].[J].,2007,(4).[33][18].[34][5].[35][9].[36].[J].,2005,(1).[37],.[J].,2008,(3).[]95