ANDMANAGINGECONOMICEXPOSURE(跨国公司财务管理-

1MultinationalFinancialManagementAlanShapiro7thEditionJ.Wiley&SonsPowerPointsbyJosephF.Greco,Ph.D.CaliforniaStateUniversity,Fullerton2CHAPTER11MEASURINGANDMANAGINGECONOMICEXPOSURE3CHAPTEROVERVIEWI.FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSUREII.THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGERATECHANGESIII.IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREIV.CALCULATINGECONOMICEXPOSUREV.ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKVI.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE4PARTI.FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSUREI.FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKA.Economicexposurefocusesontheimpactofcurrencyfluctuationsonfirm’svalue.1.Expectationsaboutthefluctuationmustbeincorporatedinallbasicdecisionsofthefirm.5FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE2.Definitions:a.Accountingexposureimpactonfirm’sbalancesheetb.Economicexposure1.)Transaction2.)Operating6FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURETHEREALEXCHANGERATEthtfttiiee)1()1('7FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSUREB.RealExchangeRatesandRisk1.Nominalv.realexchangerates:therealratehasbeenadjustedforpricechanges.8FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE3.SUMMARYa.theeconomicimpactofacurrencychangedependsontheoffsetbythedifferenceininflationratesortherealexchangerate.b.Itistherelativepricechangesthatultimatelydetermineafirm’slong-runexposure.9PARTII.THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGERATECHANGESII.ECONOMICCONSEQUENCESA.Transactionexposure1.On-balancesheet2.Off-balancesheet10THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGERATECHANGESII.ECONOMICCONSEQUENCES(con’t)B.OperatingExposure:realratechange1.Pricingflexibilityiskey2.Productdifferentiation3.Substitutionofinputs11THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGERATECHANGESII.SUMMARYThesectoroftheeconomyinwhichthefirmoperates;thesourcesofthefirm’sinputs;andfluctuationsintherealexchangeratedelineatethefirm’strueeconomicexposure.12PARTIII.IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREIII.CASESTUDIESOFECONOMICEXPOSUREA.ASPENSKIINGCOMPANY1.Firm’sexchangerateriskaffecteditssalesrevenues.13IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREA.ASPENSKIINGCOMPANY(con’t)2.Althoughtherewasnotranslationrisk,theglobalmarketwithitsexchangerateriskanditscompetitorsimpactedmarketdemand.14IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREB.PETROLEOSMEXICANOS(PEMEX)1.Thefirm’sexchangerateriskaffectedcostbutnotrevenues.2.Economicimpacta.Revenues:noneb.Costs:decreasedc.Neteffect:increasedUS$flows15IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREC.TOYOTAMOTORCOMPANY1.ExchangerateriskaffectedBOTHrevenuesandcosts.2.Flowbackeffect:previouslyexportedgoodsreturnwithincreaseddomesticcompetition.3.Lowerprofitmarginsdomestically16PARTIV.CALCULATINGECONOMICEXPOSUREIV.Aquantitativeassessmentofeconomicexposuredependsonunderlyingassumptionsconcerning:A.futurecashflows;B.sensitivitytoexchangeratechanges.17PARTV.ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKV.NEEDFORAWORKABLEAPPROACHA.RegressionAnalysis1.Variablesa.Independent:changesinparent’scashflowsb.Dependent:Averagenominalexchangeratechange.18ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKB.REGRESSIONEQUATION-approachbasedontheoperationaldefinitionoftheexchangeriskfacedbyaparentoroneofitsaffiliates:-acompanyfacesexchangerisktotheextentthatvariationsinthedollarvalueoftheunit’scashflowsarecorrelatedwithvariationsinthenominalexchangerate19ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKwhereCFt=CFt-CFt-1andCFtisthedollarvalueoftotalaffiliate(parent)cashflowsinperiodtEXCHt=EXCHt-EXCHt-1equalstheaveragenominalexchangerateduringperiodtu=arandomerrortermtttuEXCHaCF20ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK1.Outputmeasures:a.Betacoefficient()measurestheassociationofchangesincashflowstoexchangeratechanges.21ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKb.thehigherthepercentagechangeofcashflowtochangesinexchangerates,thegreatertheeconomicexposure(higherbetavalues).22ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKVI.SUMMARY:A.Thefocusoftheaccountingprofessiononthebalancesheetimpactofcurrencychangeshasledtoignoringtheimportantimpactonfuturecashflows.23ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKB.Forfirmsincurringcostsandsellingproductsinforeigncountries,theneteffectofcurrencychangesmaybelessimportantinthelongrun.24ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKC.Tomeasureexposureproperly,youmustfocusoninflation-adjustedorrealexchangeratesinsteadofnominaloractualexchangerates.25ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKD.Itisdifficultinpracticetodeterminewhattheactualeconomicimpactofacurrencychangewillbe.26PARTVI.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREI.INTRODUCTIONOperatingexposuremanagementrequireslong-termoperatingadjustments.A.Realv.NominalChanges1.Relativepricechangesleadstomarketingand/orproductionrevisions27MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB.ProactiveMarketingandProductionInitiatives1.Marketing:marketselectionproductstrategypricingstrategypromotionalstrategy28MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB.ProactiveMarketingandProductionInitiatives(con’t)2.Production:productsourcinginputmixplantlocationraisingproductivity29MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREII.MarketingManagementAdjustmentsA.MarketSelection1.useadvantagetocarveoutmarketshare2.Marketsegmentation30MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB.Pricingstrategy:Expectationscritical1.IfHCvaluefalls,exportergainscompetitiveadvantagebyincreasingunitprofitabilityandmarketshare.2.Thehigherpriceelasticityofdemand