INTERNATIONALMONETARYSYSTEM(跨国公司财务管理-J

1MultinationalFinancialManagementAlanShapiro7thEditionJ.Wiley&SonsPowerPointsbyJosephF.Greco,Ph.D.CaliforniaStateUniversity,Fullerton2CHAPTER3THEINTERNATIONALMONETARYSYSTEM3CHAPTEROVERVIEWI.ALTERNATIVEEXCHANGERATESYSTEMSII.ABRIEFHISTORYOFTHEINTERNATIONALMONETARYSYTEMIII.THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEMANDMONETARYUNIONIV.EMERGINGMARKETCURRENCYCRISES4PARTI.ALTERNATIVEEXCHANGERATESYSTEMSI.FIVEMARKETMECHANISMSA.FreelyFloating(“CleanFloat”)1.Marketforcesofsupplyanddemanddeterminerates.5ALTERNATIVEEXCHANGERATESYSTEMS2.Forcesinfluencedbya.pricelevelsb.interestratesc.economicgrowth3.Ratesfluctuaterandomlyovertime.6ALTERNATIVEEXCHANGERATESYSTEMSB.ManagedFloat(“DirtyFloat”)1.Marketforcessetratesunlessexcessvolatilityoccurs.2.Then,centralbankdeterminesrate.7ALTERNATIVEEXCHANGERATESYSTEMSC.Target-ZoneArrangement1.RateDeterminationa.Marketforcesconstrainedtoupperandlowerrangeofrates.b.Memberstothearrangementadjusttheirnationaleconomicpoliciestomaintaintarget.8ALTERNATIVEEXCHANGERATESYSTEMSD.FixedRateSystem1.Ratedeterminationa.Governmentmaintainstargetrates.b.Ifratesthreatened,centralbanksbuy/sellcurrency.c.Monetarypoliciescoordinated.9ALTERNATIVEEXCHANGERATESYSTEMSE.CurrentSystem1.Ahybridsystema.Majorcurrencies:usefreely-floatingmethodb.Othercurrenciesmoveinandoutofvariousfixed-ratesystems.10PARTII.ABRIEFHISTORYOFTHEINTERNATIONALMONETARYSYSTEMI.THEUSEOFGOLDA.DesirablepropertiesB.Inshortrun:Highproductioncostslimitchanges.C.Inlongrun:Commoditymoneyinsuresstability.11ABRIEFHISTORYII.TheClassicalGoldStandard(1821-1914)A.Majorglobalcurrenciesongoldstandard.1.Nationsfixtheexchangerateintermsofaspecificamountofgold.12ABRIEFHISTORY2.Maintenanceinvolvedthebuyingandsellingofgoldatthatprice.3.DisturbancesinPriceLevels:Wouldbeoffsetbytheprice-specie*-flowmechanism.*specie=goldcoins13ABRIEFHISTORYa.Price-specie-flowmechanismadjustmentswereautomatic:1.)Whenabalanceofpaymentssurplusledtoagoldinflow;2.)Goldinflowledtohigherpriceswhichreducedsurplus;3.)Goldoutflowledtolowerpricesandincreasedsurplus.14ABRIEFHISTORYIII.TheGoldExchangeStandard(1925-1931)A.OnlyU.S.andBritainallowedtoholdgoldreserves.B.Otherscouldholdbothgold,dollarsorpoundreserves.15ABRIEFHISTORYC.Currenciesdevaluedin1931-ledtotradewars.D.BrettonWoodsConference-calledinordertoavoidfutureprotectionistanddestructiveeconomicpolicies16ABRIEFHISTORYV.TheBrettonWoodsSystem(1946-1971)1.U.S.$waskeycurrency;valuedat$1-1/35oz.ofgold.2.Allcurrencieslinkedtothatpriceinafixedratesystem.17ABRIEFHISTORY3.Exchangeratesallowedtofluctuateby1%aboveorbelowinitiallysetrates.B.Collapse,19711.Causes:a.U.S.highinflationrateb.U.S.$depreciatedsharply.18ABRIEFHISTORYV.Post-BrettonWoodsSystem(1971-Present)A.SmithsonianAgreement,1971:US$devaluedto1/38oz.ofgold.By1973:Worldonafreelyfloatingexchangeratesystem.19ABRIEFHISTORYB.OPECandtheOilCrisis(1973-774)1.OPECraisedoilpricesfourfold;2.Exchangerateturmoilresulted;3.CausedOPECnationstoearnlargesurplusB-O-P.20ABRIEFHISTORY4.Surplusesrecycledtodebtornationswhichsetupdebtcrisisof1980’s.C.DollarCrisis(1977-78)1.U.S.B-O-Pdifficulties2.ResultofinconsistentmonetarypolicyinU.S.21ABRIEFHISTORY3.Dollarvaluefallsasconfidenceshrinks.D.TheRisingDollar(1980-85)1.U.S.inflationsubsidesastheFedraisesinterestrates2.RisingratesattractsglobalcapitaltoU.S.22ABRIEFHISTORY3.Result:Dollarvaluerises.E.TheSinkingDollar:(1985-87)1.Dollarrevaluatedslowlydownward;2.PlazaAgreement(1985)G-5agreetodepressUS$further.23ABRIEFHISTORY3.LouvreAgreement(1987)G-7agreetosupportthefallingUS$.F.RecentHistory(1988-Present)1.1988US$stabilized2.Post-1991Confidenceresultedinstrongerdollar3.1993-1995Dollarvaluefalls24PARTIII.THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEMI.INTRODUCTIONA.TheEuropeanMonetarySystem(EMS)1.Atarget-zonemethod(1979)2.Closemacroeconomicpolicycoordinationrequired.25THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEMB.EMSObjective:toprovideexchangeratestabilitytoallmembersbyholdingexchangerateswithinspecifiedlimits.26THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEMC.EuropeanCurrencyUnit(ECU)a“cocktail”ofEuropeancurrencieswithspecifiedweightsastheunitofaccount.27THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEM1.Exchangeratemechanism(ERM)-eachmemberdeterminesmutuallyagreeduponcentralcrossrateforitscurrency.28THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEM2.MemberPledge:tokeepwithin15%marginaboveorbelowthecentralrate.29THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEMD.EMSupsanddowns1.Foreignexchangeinterventions:failedduetolackofsupportbycoordinatedmonetarypolicies.30THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEM2.CurrencyCrisisofSept.1992a.Systembrokedownb.BritainandItalyforcedtowithdrawfromEMS.31THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEMG.FailureoftheEMS:membersallowedpoliticalprioritiestodominateexchangeratepolicies.32THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEMH.MaastrichtTreaty1.CalledforMonetaryUnionby1999(movedto2002)2.Establishedasinglecurrency:theeuro33THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEM3.CallsforcreationofasinglecentralEUbank4.Adoptstoughfiscalstandards34THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEMI.Costs/BenefitsofASingleCurrencyA.Benefits1.Reducescostofdoingbusiness2.Reducesexchangeraterisk35THEEUROPEANMONETARYSYSTEMB.Costs1.Lackofnationalmonetaryflexibility.36PARTIV.EMERGINGMARKETCURRENCYCRISES