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MemberofDetecon´s2ndEuropeanTelcoSupplierEventJune17th,2004FrankfurtTheEmergingTelecommunicationsLandscape2010Dr.ArnulfHeuermannManagingPartnerPage2TheendoftheclassicalValueChain2.LongTermRestructuringofTraditionalTelcos3.MajorStrategicTrends1.TheemergingTelecommunicationsLandscape2010CoreBusinessandRolesofFuturePlayers4.Summary:ActionPointsforSuppliers5.ContentPage3ContentsStrategicTrends1.1.1Politics:Re-StructuringofRegulatoryEnvironment1.2Society:DemographicChangeandIndividualization1.3ITandSociety:PervasiveComputing1.4TelecommunicationsTechnology:NGNandMultiAccessServicePlatform1.5TechnologyandEconomics:FixedMobileConvergenceandMobileBusiness1.6OperatorEconomics:EconomiesofScaleversusEconomiesofSpecialization1.7StrategicDilemma:DemanddrivenDifferentiationvs.CostdrivenStandardization1.8SummaryPage4*CommunicationSectorAuthority=telecommunication+broadcasting1.StrategicTrends:Politics1.1Re-StructuringofRegulatoryEnvironmentThestructureandinstitutionsoftelecomsregulationsareundergoingatransformationwhichhasadirectimpactonthefutureoftheTelcosector.Organi-zationFixednetworksMobileNetworksBroadcastingServicesTelecomsServicesTelecomsBroadcastingServicesFixedMobileNetworksNetworksServices&ContentTelecomsSectorAuthorityCommunicationsSectorAuthority*TelecomsSector-specificLaws&RegulationsCommunicationsLaws&Regulations+generalcompetitionlawTraditionsPracticeCurrentDevelopmentsTomorrow‘sResultLawMarketPage5Demandforsecure,reliableandfastaccesstoinformationandcommunicationresourcesindependentoflocationMobilization/ChangingWorkPeopleareincreasinglymobile–forprivate/leisureandworkreasonsTribalismvs.UniversalismIndividualsocieties/socialgroupsorsegmentvs.globalizationofproductionRegionalDifferencesmustbetakenintoaccount.IndividualsindifferentgroupssharedifferentbeliefsandvaluesCreatenewinterfacestotechnologythattakeintoaccountthecommunicationhabitsofelderlyordisabledpersonsAgingSocietiesMoreoldpeople,longerlifeexpectanciesformasocialgroupwithno/littleexperienceconcerningtechnologyand„beingdigitallyconnected“AgingSocieties,RisingMobility,Individualization,andComplexityaremajortrendswithimportantconsequencesforfutureTelcoservicesandITapplications.1.StrategicTrends:Society1.2DemographicChangeandIndividualization(1)ImportantExamplesofTrendsandDevelopmentsChallenges/ConsequencesforTelcosPage6EaseofUse,IntelligentApplicationsandUserInterfacesTechnologyMasteryMoretechnologiesareemerging,itbecomesincreasinglyhardertomanageanduseallkindsoftechnologyCustomerSegmentation,MassCustomizationonaserviceandapplicationlevelIndividuali-sationAffiliationsandIdentitiesformmicrogroupsandsegmentsChoiceManagement,IntelligentSystemsRisingAffluenceRisingdiversityandchoiceofinformation,sources,productsandservicesAgingSocieties,RisingMobility,Individualization,andComplexityaremajortrendswithimportantconsequencesforfutureTelcoservicesandITapplications.1.StrategicTrends:Society1.2DemographicChangeandIndividualization(2)ImportantExamplesofTrendsandDevelopmentsChallenges/ConsequencesforTelcosPage7WithPervasiveComputingnewbusinessopportunitieswillbecreatedstimulatingdatacommunicationstrafficinparticularintheM2Msegment.1.StrategicTrends:InformationTechnologyandSociety1.3PervasiveComputing(1)EmergingTechnologies…MiniaturizationMicrotechnologyNanotechnologyArtificialIntelligenceSoftwareAgentsLanguageRecognitionSeamlessInteractionWebServicesWAN,LAN,PAN,BANTrackingandTracingTrackingLocalizationEnergySupplyPhotovoltage,Mechanics,TemperaturegradientMegaMIPSTbit/in2(2010)ExpertSystemsNetworkedAugmentedRealitySystemsWearablesPictureReorganizationFuelcellsHydrogene…willboost…Page8WithPervasiveComputingnewbusinessopportunitieswillbecreatedstimulatingdatacommunicationstrafficinparticularintheM2Msegment.1.StrategicTrends:InformationTechnologyandSociety1.3PervasiveComputing(2)…NewApplicationsAll-day-lifeLife:intelligenthome,SmartDustShopping:u-Commerce,SilentCommerceSmartObjects:intelligentcoffeemachine,…TrafficIndividualTraffic:RemoteControl,Drive-By-WireDriverlessPublicTransportWorkEmpowerment:RemoteDecisionSupportInfrastructure:IntelligentOffice,MobileIntelligenceTeamwork:Tele-Presence,VirtualWorkbenchHealthTelechirurgy,NanobotsMed.Telemetry,ArtificialSensesEntertainmentMedia:E-Paper,AugmentedTVMobileInternet,ARGamesSports:VirtualTrainerPersonalTravelAssistantPage9ServiceInaNGNWorldDifferentiationandInnovationStrategiesontheServiceLevelwillbecomeastrategicopportunity;cheap“trialanderror”introductionofnewservicesandindividualapplicationswillbepossible.1.StrategicTrends:TelecommunicationsTechnology1.4NGNandMultiAccessServicePlatformNetworkServiceLayerVPNCommerceMMSWAPVoicePortalMailMiddlewarePhysicalandTransportLayerControlLayerNetworkLayer2G2.5G3GWLLW-LANSatelliteCircuitSwitchedCSPackedSwitchedCSIP-CSMM-CSCSCFGWGWHSSAccessNetworkAccessNetworkPage10Networks/ServicesFixedandmobilenetworkswillmigrate,voice,dataaccessandserviceswillbeavailableoveronebasicIPnetwork.Nomoredifference,however,infixedandmobileservicesandapplications.1.Strate
本文标题:德国DETECON对通讯行业XXXX展望报告(1)
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