毕博：全球汽车行业报告及咨询市场展望(1)

CIMITServicesMarketOutlook:GlobalAutomotiveIndustryBusinessIntelligenceGroupAugust2003BUSINESSINTELLIGENCEGROUPContentsExecutiveSummaryAutomotiveIndustryBusinessChallengesGlobalRegional:US,Europe,Asia-Pacific,RestofWorldAutomotiveITSpendingTrendsGlobal&RegionalITSpendForecastsAutomotiveIndustryITTrendsAutomotiveITServicesIndustry:CompetitiveProfilesAutomotiveITServicesMarket:BearingPointAlliancesSourcesandContactBUSINESSINTELLIGENCEGROUPExecutiveSummaryAutomakersarecurrentlyfacedwithslowersales,overcapacityanddeclinesinprofitability.Big3arelosingmarketsharetoJapaneseautomakers.Toyota,HondaandNissanincreasedtheirU.S.salesandmarketshareinthefirsthalfof2003,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,DaimlerChrysler)sawtheirsalesdeclinedespitespendingheavilyonincentives.Currentlytheglobalautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontinues.Carpriceshavebeenfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theglobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecompetition,greaterpricetransparency,risingcustomerexpectationsandqualityimprovements,makingthepressureevengreateronpriceandprofitability.Chinapresentsthebestopportunityforautomakersduetoincreasedgovernmentincentivesandcooperation,cheaperlabor,andproximitytoalargepopulationofpotentialconsumers.Chinacontinuestomakeprogresstowardsamarketeconomywhichhasledtoglobalbusinesses,likeautomotivecompanies,tryingtorampupinordertotapintothecountry'slargemarketplaceof1.3Bconsumers.AyearafterentryintotheWTO,in2003,China’sautomotiveindustryproduced3.25Mmotorvehicleunits(38%growthcomparedtotheyearbefore).ITIssues:Industryinsurvivalmode,pressuringspending;OpportunitiesforCRMMostmanufacturingverticals,includingAutomotive,havebeenoperatingin“survivalmode”,spendingverylittleoncapitalandoperationalexpenses;ITspendinghassufferedasaresult.TheNorthAmericanmanufacturingmarketconstitutesapproximately45%ofthetotalworldmanufacturingITspend.BUSINESSINTELLIGENCEGROUPExecutiveSummaryCurrentlyintheautomotiveindustrythereislesssignificanceplacedontheroleofITinsupportingbusinessstrategies,especiallyincomparisontoindustrieslikeFinancialServicesorHealthcarepayerindustries.ThisisalargedeterminantofITbudget.Inordertounderstandtheirnear-termsalesvolume,optionmixandpricesensitivity,automakershavetostartunderstandingtheircustomersbetterthroughthemanysignalstheyseefromtheirconsumers’interactions.MuchofthiscanbeaccomplishedthroughCRMinitiatives.Whiledealerincentiveshavebeenusedbymostofthemajorautomakers,especiallyintheUS,companiesleveragingtheirexistingCRMmightbeabletogetmoreforless.Thedatagatheredfromincentiveprogramsflowingbacktomanufacturersanddealerscanallowfollow-upcampaignsthatbridgethegapbetweensalesandmarketing.ERPvendorsareturningtheirfocustodeliveringextendedapplicationsinareasofSCM,CRMandPLMtocompensateforthelossofrevenuefromlarge-scaleprojects.CompetitorsandAlliancesDeloitteConsultinghasajointinitiativewithSAPtosupporttheautomotiveindustryinthedeploymentofthemySAPAutomotivesolutiononaworldwidebasis.Aspartofthisinitiative,DCandSAParedevelopingmethodsforcustomer-specificanalysisonfeasibility,cost-benefit,andROI.IBMencouragestheirengineerstorotateinandoutofthefield,spendingtimesolvingreal-lifeproblemswhilenotabandoningtheirinsideresearch.IBMhascreatedaninnovationservicesgroupwithinitsresearchunitdedicatedtoworkingonautomotivecustomerproblems,makingthemcapableoftakingtheirresearchandapplyittobusinessissues.IntheEuropeanautomotiveindustry,SAPiscurrentlyfocusingoncrossfunctionalprocesses,packagingtheirSCM,PLMandCRMallinone,usingdifferentmodules,approachingitfromtheperspectiveofthebusinessprocessesthatcrosstheseareas.GlobalAutomotiveIndustry:BusinessChallengesBUSINESSINTELLIGENCEGROUPGlobalAutomotiveIndustryisonaGradualSlideTheworld’sautomotiveindustryhasbeenonagradualdownwardslideoverthepastyear,acceleratedtosomedegreebythelikelihoodofamajorbankruptcyandfurtherrestructuringoftheindustry.Inhibitorsincludeweak(regional)consumerconfidence,highunemploymentanduncertainglobalequitymarkets,allofwhichhaveledtolowersales.InEurope,thefirstfivemonthsof2003sawsalesdropby4%whilenewregistrationsforMayfellthelowestinfiveyears.TheUSmarketisforecasttoshrink4%thisyear.Currentlytheglobalautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontinues.Muchoftheover-capacityisduetoeachindividualcompanyexpectingtogrowfasterthanitsrivals.Andwhilethe90sshowedstrongreturns,manyautomakersinvestedinadditionalcapacity,createdriskymodels,builtmorefactoriesandenteredintoemergingmarketsthathadmorelongtermpromisethanshortterm.Formanyyearsthelargesttruckandcarmakershavecontinuallysustainedlossesoutoftheirprimarybusinessesofcarsales,oftenmakingprofitsthroughmoneymadefromsellingsparepartsatinflatedprices,throughfinancingbusinessesorthroughexchangerates.Thisstructureisincreasinglyexposedinadownturn,especiallywhenincentiveslike0%financinghavehamperedthefinancingbusiness.Carpriceshavebeenfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theglobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecomp