麦肯锡-中国冰箱行业战略报告

aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorCONFIDENTIALIndustrySituationAnalysis:RefrigeratoraaaaaaELECTRONICSCHINA(aaaaaaChina)Thisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclientorganizationwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ThismaterialwasusedbyMcKinsey&Companyduringanoralpresentation;itisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion.aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator1KEYMESSAGES•Refrigeratormarketisexpectedtogrowat4.6%annuallyfromRMB21billionin2000toRMB26billionin2005.Althoughgrowingatarateashighas31.1%,side-by-siderefrigeratormarketisexpectedtoremainverylimitedinthenext5years•Ingeneral,industryprofitabilityforrefrigeratorismoderate.However,side-by-siderefrigeratorsenjoydoubledigitreturnonsales•Exceptside-by-siderefrigerator,refrigeratormarketisledbylocalplayers.However,thereareopportunitiesforMNCstosuccessfullybuilduptheirpositionbyfocusingonmid-to-high-endsegments•Therefrigeratorindustryisrelatively“low-tech”andhaslowentrybarriers.EntryintoWTOisnotexpectedtohavedirecthugeimpactonthecompetitiveenvironment•Withmarketsharesaround3to4%,aaaaaaismoderatelypositionedinrefrigeratormarket.aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator2MARKETASSESSMENTMarketassessmentSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverallenvironmentanalysisMarketdefinitionaaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator3MARKETASSESSMENTSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverallenvironmentanalysisMarketdefinition•Evaluationcriteria,weightandrating•AssessmentofmarketattractivenessMarketassessment•Product/servicedefinition•Relevantregulatoryenvironmentandtrends•Relevanttechnologicalenvironmentandtrends•Marketsizeandgrowthrate•Keybuyingfactors•Distributionchannelstructure•Marketsharebycompetitor•Industryprofitabilityoreconomicsaaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator4MARKETDEFINITION•Product/servicedefinitionSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverallenvironmentanalysisMarketdefinitionMarketassessmentaaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator5PRODUCTSCOPE–WHITEGOODSProductgroupProductcategoryAirconditionerWashingmachineWhitegoodsMicrowave•PackagedA/C•CentralA/C*•Side-by-sideRefrigeratorProductsubcategories*Usedbyresidentialsandsmallbusinessesaaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator6MARKETDEFINITIONSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverallenvironmentanalysisMarketdefinitionMarketassessment•Relevantregulatoryenvironmentandtrends•Relevanttechnologicalenvironmentandtrendsaaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator7LOW-ENDREFRIGERATORMARKETISLIKELYTOBEDOMINATEDBYLOCALCOMPETITORS.MNCSCOULDSUCCEEDINTHEMID-TO-HIGH-ENDNICHEMARKETSRegulatoryTrends/issuesImplications•Markethasbeenfairlyopenandwillremainso•MostleadingMNCplayersarealreadyinChinaandhavelocalizedtheirproductionandsourcingTechnological•Ingeneral,technologiesforrefrigeratorsarenotverycomplicated,esp.forlow-endproducts•Technologytrendistofocusondigitization,artificialintelligenceandenvironmentalfriendliness•EntrytoWTOisnotexpectedtohavehugedirectimpactoncurrentcompetitiveenvironment•ThemarketislikelytobedominatedbylocalplayerswhoaremostlynotasstrongintechnologyasMNCplayersbutstrongerinchannelandsalescapabilities,especiallyinthelow-endsegments•MNCplayersarelikelytosucceedbybeingnicheplayersandfocusingonmid-to-high-endsegments•Competitioninproductinnovationislikelytofocusoncustomizationandlocalizationaaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator8MARKETDEFINITIONSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverallenvironmentanalysisMarketdefinitionMarketassessment•Marketsizeandgrowthrate•Keybuyingfactors•Distributionchannelstructureaaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator9ALTHOUGHaaaaaaONDLARGESTMARKETAMONGWHITEGOODS,REFRIGERATORMARKETGROWTHWILLBEMODESTSource:GFK,SINO-MR,LightIndustryInformationCenter,aaaaaa,fieldinterviews,McKinseyanalysis21,05621,96422,92423,90424,92325,9752000Side-by-sideNon-side-by-siderefrigerators20012002200320042005CAGR(00-05)Percent21,13022,06023,05024,07025,14026,260KeydriversRationaleorassumptions•Replace-ment•SincethepenetrationrateinChinaishigh(~80%),particularlyinmajorcities(100%),majorityofthedemandfornon-side-by-siderefrigeratorswillcomefromreplacementpurchase•Incomegrowth•Increaseinaveragedisposableincomedrivesdemandformid-to-largecapacityandmid-to-highendrefrigerators•Averageprice•Dropsat4%p.a.74961261662172854.64.431.1RefrigeratormarketsizeandgrowthRMBmillions,percentUnitssold(non-side-by-side)millionsAveragesellingprice(non-side-by-side)9.414.313.112.111.110.21,8401,9101,9902,0702,1602,2508.8-4.0aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator10THEMARKETISVERYSATIATEDReplacementislikelytobethekeydriverforfuturedemandSource:ChinaStatisticsYearbookPenetrationrateinChinaTier1Tier2Tier3WholeChina103%101%87%80%aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator11MID-TO-LARGECAPACITYREFRIGERATORSHAVEBEENCONSUMER'sFAVORITECHOICESource:SINO-MR,GfK100L12108111413242633303127109111086322100%=199819992000HistoricalmarketsizebycapacityinmajorcitiesPercent,millionunits0.60.50.4100-150L150-180L180-200L200-225L225-250L250-300L300LCAGR(00-05)Percent8.69.19.4-18.44.5-22.54.9-5.117.38.7-18.4-18.4aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator12SIDE-BY-SIDER