IT项目范围管理和风险管理研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文IT项目范围管理和风险管理研究姓名：栾红栋申请学位级别：硕士专业：项目管理指导教师：徐昌庆20090201IITITITITITITITITITITITITITFMEAIIFMEAITITFMEAABSTRACTIIIABSTRACTWiththerapiddevelopmentofinformationtechnology,powerfulandcomplex-structureITprojectsareemerging.TimeconsumingdevelopmentcycleandhighcostareneededfortheseITprojects,whichresultthecomplicationtomanagetherisk.Ontheotherhand,frequentchangesdemandedforITprojectsmakeitdifficulttodefinethescopeoftheprojects.Tomatchthosedemands,anefficientmanagementmodelthatbasedontraditionalprojectmanagementtheoriesandcombinedwiththecharacteristicsofITprojectmanagementisneeded.ThemanagementmodelisexpectedtooptimizemanagementprocessandincreasethelevelofITprojectmanagement.ForITprojects,scopemanagementandriskmanagementarethekeypointsthatrequiremoreattention.Inthisdissertation,thebasicconceptsconcerningwithprojectmanagementandthecharacteristicsofITprojectarefirstlyanalyzedindetails.AdeeperresearchofscopemanagementandriskmanagementofITprojectisfollowed.Basedonthesetheories,thereisacasestudyrelatedwiththeresearchattheend.Sometechnicalanalysistoolsareusedinthefieldofprojectmanagementandadetailedanalysisofsystemengineeringmethodsisgiven.Theprojectscopemanagementprocessesandchangecontrolmethodsareproposedbaseonthesystemengineeringmethods.Atthesametime,acarefulstudyofFMEAinthereliabilityanalysisisgivenandthemethodsofFMEAandconventionalprojectmanagementtoolsarecombinedandappliedinriskmanagementofITproject.Asimpleandpracticaltoolthatdealingwithandmonitoringprocedureprojectriskidentificationandevaluationiscreated.TheprojectscopeABSTRACTIVmanagementandriskmanagementprocessareappliedintheGoldenQuanlityproject,improvedthethemanagementlevelandmanagementefficiency,andachievedverygoodresults.KEYWORDSITprojectscopemanagementriskmanagementsystemsengineeringmethodsFMEA2009227200922720092271111.16019828090ITITITITITITITITStandishGroupCHAOSReportIT1999StandishGroupIT26%28%“”46%970IT255017.540%StandishGroup20031.3550%34%15%IT51%StandishGroupStandishGroupCHAOS12ITInternationalProjectManagementAssociationIPMAIPMACompetenceBaselineICB[1]ITITITITITITITITITIT1.250CriticalPathMethodCPMProgramEvaluationandReviewTechniquePERT1965404013ITProjectManagementInstitutePMIProjectManagementBodyofKnowledgePMBOK[1]ICBIPMA19961999ICB1.02001ICB2.0ICB++2006IPMA40ICB3.046ICBICB3.0201511ICB141-11-1ICB3.0Tab1-1ICB3.0abilitylist1.2.3.1.012.013.011.022.023.021.032.033.031.042.043.041.052.053.051.062.063.061.072.073.071.082.083.081.092.093.091.102.103.101.112.113.111.122.121.132.131.142.141.152.151.161.171.181.191.20PMBOKPMI198419871986PMBOK1.02000PMBOK2.02004PMBOK3.0PMBOKPMBOKPMBOK15PMBOKPMBOK3125324491-11-1PMBOKFig1-1PMBOKprojectmanagementknowledgeareaandprocess16CentralComputerandTelecommunicationsAgency,CCTAProjectsINControlEnvironmentsPRINCE2ISO10006PRINCE2CCTA90,CCTA1989ProjectResourceOrganizationManagementPlanningTechnique,PROMPTPROMPTSimpactSystems19751979CCTAInformationSystem,ISInformationTechnology,IT19893PRINCEPROMPTCCTAPRINCE2PRINCE2PROMPTPRINCE2IS/ITPRINCE2“”ISO10006-InternationalStandardOrgnization,ISOISO10006PMIPMBOKISO10006ISO1000617ISO100061.31.3.1123IT1.3.2ITITITIT18ITIT2IT92IT2.1PMIPMBOKIPMAICBISO10006PMIPMBOK·(HendFayol)1916··(MaryParkerFollet)1942·(HaroldKoontz)1961··(LouisBooneandDavidKurtz),1984·P·(StephenPRobbins)1996·R··F·(WarrenR.PlunkettandRaymondF.Attner)1997()()2IT1019941998(Operation)(Projects)·(RobertJ.Graham)1985·(CliffordF.Gray)1994()(PMI)20042IT11[2]PMBOK2.2ITIT2.2.1ITPMBOKICB“”IT“”ITIT,IT“”IT2IT12IT:1ITITITIT2ITITITIT3ITIT2.2.2ITITITITITITIT2IT13IT[2]1Moore’sLaw182060ITIT2ITITIT3ITITITITIT2.3IT502IT14[3]203020402070(CriticalPathMethodCPM)(ProgramEvaluationandReviewTechniquePERT)2070,,,IPMAICBPMIPMBOK208019822IT1519916(ProjectManagementResearchCommitteeofChinaPMRC),ITITWTOITStandishGroupCHAOSReportIT20031.3550%34%15%IT51%StandishGroupIT33552.24%21.79%9.55%IT2IT16IT2.4ITITITIT3IT173IT3.1ITITIT70%IT90%ITITITITITBenjaminC.Wu-[4]IT3.220E·C·(E·C·Molina)A·K·(A·K·Erlang)1957196973IT18MIL-STD-4991994IEEE12202005[5]IEEE1220523-1[4]122343454QualityFunctionDeployment,QFDAnalyticHierarchyProcess,AHPStatisticalProcessControlSPCDesignofExperimentsDOECauseandEffectDiagram3IT193-1Fig.3-1SystemEngineeringMethod3.3ITITITWorkBreakdownStructureWBS[6]IT3.3.1IT1.2.3.5.4.3IT20[7]WBS3-23-2ITFig.3-2ITProjectScopeManagementProcess123WBSWBSWBSWBSWBSWBS1.2.4.3.WBS5.3IT21WBS45IT3.3.2ITITITITIT3IT223-3[2]ChangeControlSystemCCSChangeControlBoardCCB3-3Fig.3-3ProjectScopeChangeControlProcessFishboneDiagramKaoruIshikawa19433IT23IshikawaDiagram123-43-41Fig.3-4CauseandEffectDiagram134M1EManpowerMachineryMaterialsMethodsEnvironment3-543-653IT243-52Fig.3-5CauseandEffectDiagram23-63Fig.3-6CauseandEffectDiagram33IT253.4ITIT4IT264IT4.1PaulGrace[8]ITITIT[8]FMEAFMEA4.2FMEApotentialFailureModeandEffectcriticalityAnalysisFMEA6080(MIL-STD-1629A)1985IECMIL-STD-1629AIEC812-19852GB/T7826-19874IT27(FMEA)[9]FMEAFMEAFMEAFMEA4.3FMEA[10]FMEA[11]FMEAFMEAFMEAFMEA4IT284-1FMEA1FMEAFMEAFMEAFMEAFMEA2WBS3WBSSWOT454-154-264-37RiskPriorityNumberRPNRPN=SOD8RPN9RPN4IT294-1FEMAFig.4-1