罗兰贝格 汽车行业分析

GlobalAutomotiveSupplierStudy2009GlobalAutomotiveSupplierStudy2009HowsupplierscanmastertheautocrisisAutomotive_supplier_study_2009_SHORT_VERSION.pptxFebruary2009ExecutivesummaryTheglobalautomotiveindustryisfacingthebiggestcrisisever–Supplierrevenuesaredownby20%to40%comparedto12monthsagodownby20%to40%comparedto12monthsagoAveragesupplierprofitabilityisatanall-timelow,afteranexcellentperformancein2007andthefirsthalf2008Asaresult,asignificantnumberofsuppliersalreadyhadtofileforinsolvencyoverthepastweeks(exampleGermany:20insolvenciesbetweenmidNovember2008andendofJ2009)300liithtidktidJanuary2009);300suppliersinthetriademarketsareindangerSupplierCEOshavetopullallpossiblerestructuringleversinordertosurvive2009.TopfocushastobeshiftedtowardsensuringsufficientliquidityfocushastobeshiftedtowardsensuringsufficientliquidityThecrisisisacatalystforconsolidation.Newstrategicoptionsforstableandwell-performingsuppliersarearising2Automotive_supplier_study_2009_SHORT_VERSION.pptxppgContentsPageA.Theautocrisis–Aglobalshockwave4BDitAttilifitbilittlltil12B.Deepimpact–Automotivesupplierprofitabilityatanall-timelow12C.Survivalkit–Howtonavigatethroughthecrisis21D.Contacts33©2009RolandBergerStrategyConsultantsGmbH3Automotive_supplier_study_2009_SHORT_VERSION.pptxTheautocrisisAglobalshockwaveATheautocrisis–AglobalshockwaveA.4Automotive_supplier_study_2009_SHORT_VERSION.pptxThreeparalleleventsputtheglobalautomotiveindustryunderhugepressureCARMARKETTRUCKMARKETDOWNSHIFTING132CARMARKETDOWNTURNInmaturemarkets,salesvolumedroppedby20-30%AlsoBRICcountriesseeTRUCKMARKETCOLLAPSEDramaticandquickcollapseoftrucksalesworldwide(upto60%70%)afterDOWNSHIFTINGSmall/basiccarsgainedsignificantmarketshareSalesof(highmargin)SUVsAlsoBRICcountriesseedecliningvolumes(upto-60%-70%)–after10yearsofpositivecycleAllrelatedsegmentssimilarlyaffected(e.g.trailers)Salesof(highmargin)SUVsandupperclasscarscollapsedMaindrivers:GlobalrecessionFinancialcrisisMaindrivers:ReductionofglobaltradeandtransportationvolumeFinancingproblemsofcarriersMaindrivers:CO2regulationsChangedconsumerpreferences(environmentalgpp(aspects)5Automotive_supplier_study_2009_SHORT_VERSION.pptxGLOBALAUTOMOTIVEINDUSTRY1PASSENGERCARSGlobalcarsalesdeclinedby3%in2008.TriadmarketsNAFTA,EuropeandJapanwereparticularlyhitGlobalnewcar1)sales[munits]-9%NAFTARussia/UkraineWesternEurope18.9169-16%16.915.4-9%-6%3.23.7+16%+9%NAFTAJapan/KoreaChinaEasternEurope200716.92008200720082.220072.12008200720088.120078.820086.46.3-2%WORLD+10%20072008+6%SouthAmericaRestofWorldAsiaOther70.368.0-3%4.020074.420083.620073.820087.17.6+7%6Automotive_supplier_study_2009_SHORT_VERSION.pptxSource:J.D.Power;RolandBerger/Rothschildanalysis1)PassengercarsandLCVs20072008200720081PASSENGERCARSWhileNAFTAwashitfirst,downturninEuropeandJapanonlystartedinQ4.Thestartingpointfor2009is25-35%below2008Monthlynewcar1)registrations[munits]2.0200720070.752.0NAFTAWESTERNEUROPEJAPAN1.5200720070400.451.520071.0-16%-5%0300.350.401.0-9%2009MINUS~35%MINUS~25%MINUS~25%05200820080.250200.300520092008200920097Automotive_supplier_study_2009_SHORT_VERSION.pptxJFMAMJJASOND0.5Source:ACEA;Marklines;Ward'sAutomotiveGroup;RolandBerger/Rothschildanalysis1)PassengercarsandLCVsASND0.20JFMAMJJOJFMAMJJASOND0.51PASSENGERCARSMid-termoutlook:2007volumeswillnotbereachedagainbefore2012/2013–ExampleWesternEuropeSalesdevelopmentintheWesternEuropeancarmarket[munits]141213SECONDOILCRISISSales:-10%GLOBALRECESSION,101112Duration:2yrs.STRUCTURALCRISIS1990sSales:-16%Duration:3yrs.,FINANCIALCRISISSales:between-20%and-25%Duration:~4yrs8910FIRSTOILCRISISSales:-17%Duration:2yrsyDuration:4yrs.6788Automotive_supplier_study_2009_SHORT_VERSION.pptxSource:DeutscheBank;Countrystatistics;RolandBerger/RothschildforecastDuration:2yrs.6198519801975197019902015FC1995200020052010FC2DOWNSHIFTINGThemixofglobalcarsaleshaschanged:Thesmallcarsegmentgrewevenin2008,whileluxurycarsandSUVslostgrounddramaticallyLightvehiclesalesbysegmentandregion2007vs.2008[munits]SEGMENTWORLDNAFTAWEUROPEJAPANROWSEGMENTSmall/BasicWORLD20072008NAFTA20072008W.EUROPE20072008JAPAN20072008ROW20072008Small/BasiccarsMiddleclasscars20.120.921.220.26%-3%0.87.10.96.59%-8%4.95.14.74.8-4%-7%1.40.91.30.8-5%-10%12.97.814.28.110%4%carsUpperclass/Luxurycars2.01.6-19%0.90.7-23%0.70.5-22%0.10.1-12%0.30.3-1%Vans12.311.5-6%2.21.8-19%4.43.8-12%2.02.13%3.63.73%9Automotive_supplier_study_2009_SHORT_VERSION.pptxSource:J.D.Power;RolandBerger/RothschildanalysisSUVs/Pickups15.113.5-11%7.86.0-22%1.31.1-14%0.80.8-3%5.25.57%2DOWNSHIFTINGThisdownshiftinghassignificantimpactonmarketsharesofindividualOEMsGloballightvehiclesalesbymanufacturer2008vs.2007[%]Sales2008[munits]10.29.2520.61.62.13.43.11.91.34.50.41.31.00.96.51.31.17.40.40.41.72.41.64.02.21.50.70.15.23.7-0.2-103.5-5.1-5.8-6.0-7.61.0-5.0-12.2-11.7-12.9-14.2-19.510Automotive_supplier_study_2009_SHORT_VERSION.pptx19.5-25.4Source:J.D.Power;RolandBerger/Rothschildanalysis3TRUCKSCommercialvehiclesalesarecurrentlycollapsingaroundtheworld.NeworderentriesinQ1/2009areclosetoz