小企业管理第4讲

SmallBusinessManagementProfessorHornadayLecture4SmallBusinessSourcesofCommercialCreditCommercialBankLoans-36%CommercialBankMortgages-25%FinanceCompanies-23%VentureCapital-10%SBALoans-6%Source:SBA,1996GoalsofGovernmentAssistanceEconomicGoalsIncreaseEconomicEfficiencyIncreaseEconomicGrowthProvideFinancingnotAvailablefromthePrivateSectorPoliticalGoalsProvideEmploymentIncreaseBusinessOwnershipNarrowIncomeGapProvideaForumforSmallFirms1995SmallBusinessAdministration(SBA)LoanPrograms504DevelopmentLoans-$2,5007(a)LoanGuarantees-$7,700SBICSeedMoney-$375Source:SBA,1996($millions)SBAGuaranteedLoansLenderofLastResortIndependentlyOwnedandOperatedNotDominantInFieldMax$500K,Average$175KSBAGuarantees85-90%ofLoanRequireCollateralandPersonalGuaranteesPrimeRate+2.75%for10-25YearsSource:SBA,19961995SBAGovernmentLoansUsedbyLessthan1%ofSmallBusinesses55,600LoansGuaranteedValuedat$9BillionDefaultRateof19%RisksofBankLending50%ofU.S.Start-UpsGoneafter3yearsBanksUseDepositorFundsforLoansBanksnotVentureCapitalistsLackofBankIndustryandMarketExpertiseBankTransactionCostsThe“5Cs”ofBankLendingCharacterCapacityCapitalCollateralConditionsSmallBanksLendtoSmallBusinesses5%6%9%14%19%48%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%$30+$20-$29$10-$19$5-$10$1-$5$1DomesticAssetsinBillionsSource:WSJ,1996%ofSmallBusinessLoansOutstandingLoansin1995LargeBanks-$71.9BillionSmallBanks-$212.3BillionsSource:SBA,1996EarlyFinancingStagesNoRevenues,NoProfitsSeedExpansionLateStageHigherRiskLowerRiskConceptDevelopmentCommercializationInflowsintoUSVentureCapitalFunds$0.0$10.0$20.0$30.0$40.0$50.0$60.0909192939495969798990%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%Inflows%ReturnSource:TheEconomist,2000Billions1995VentureCapitalSeedMoney$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$3519951994Source:BusinessWeek,1996$MillionsCommunicationsInformation&SoftwareDistributionProductsHealthCareU.S.Start-UpVentureCapital1stQuarter2000$14.00$5.00$2.00$1.002ndStageStartupLaterBuyoutSource:WSJ,2000BillionsVentureCapitalandtheInternet$0.0$0.5$1.0$1.5$2.0$2.5$3.0$3.5$4.0Q198Q298Q398Q498Q199Q2990%10%20%30%40%50%60%TotalVenture%InternetSource:WSJ1999BillionsIrreducibleUncertaintyInvestmentBhidé’sInvestment-Uncertainty-ProfitDiagramNote:SizeofMoneyBag=PotentialProfitIrreducibleUncertaintyInvestmentPROMISINGSTART-UPS:MicrosoftBASICfortheAltair(1975)SamWaltonfranchisedvarietystore(1945)TRANSITIONALINITITATIVES:MicrosoftExcelfortheMacintosh(1985)Wal-Martdistributioncenters(1968-69)CORPORATEINITIATIVES:MicrosoftWindows95Wal-MartJVinMexico(1991)Bhidé’sInvestment-Uncertainty-ProfitDiagramNote:SizeofMoneyBag=PotentialProfitIrreducibleUncertaintyInvestmentDistributionofSignificantInitiativesOpportunisticAdaptationRisktransfer/syndicationPersonalabilitiesResearchandplanningUnderwritingotherrisksTeamworkNote:SizeofMoneyBag=PotentialProfitCORPORATEINITIATIVESPROMISINGSTART-UPSIrreducibleUncertaintyInvestmentFiveArchetypalInitiativesMARGINALBUSINESSESLawncare,hairsalonPROMISINGSTART-UPSHewlett-Packard(1948)EDS(1962)VC-BACKEDSTART-UPSIntel,Lotus,Compaq,Staples,GenentechCORPORATEINITIATIVESWindows95,Pentium(Intel),MachIII(Gillette),Prozac(Lilly)REVOLUTIONARYVENTURES:FederalExpress,Iridium(Motorola)Note:SizeofMoneyBag=PotentialProfitProfessionalManagementMajorOutsideFinancingIrreducibleUncertaintyInvestmentStagesofFunding2ndSTAGEVCCisco(1987)BOOTSTRAPPEDSTART-UPSCisco(1984)VC-BACKEDSTART-UPSCompaq(1982)PUBLICMARKETSCisco(1990)Compaq(1983)Note:SizeofMoneyBag=PotentialProfitProfessionalManagementMajorOutsideFinancingIncrementalGoalsFirmSizeandMaturityGoals-AudaciousorIncrementalAudaciousGoalsPROMISINGSTART-UPSSurvivalCashFlowTRANSITIONALINITITATIVESJustifyInvestmentSecureResourcesPromoteCooperationCORPORATEINITIATIVESLimitedbyHistoryandSizeFormalPlanningFirmSizeandMaturityOpportunisticAdaptationorFormalPlanningOpportunisticAdaptationPROMISINGSTART-UPSExperimentationUnexpectedSituationsLimitedPlanningResourcesTRANSITIONALINITITATIVESJustifyInvestmenttoOutsidersCORPORATEINITIATIVESSystematicResearchPlanningResourcesCompeteforCorporateFundingFirmSizeandMaturityRisksFacedbyTopDecision-MakersPersonalRiskPROMISINGSTART-UPSLowInitialCapitalFounder’sTimeFounder’sReputationTRANSITIONALINITITATIVESFounder’sEquityPersonalGuaranteesCORPORATEINITIATIVESCorporateRiskOnlyOneCEODecisionofMany