【英文原版】中国人口的老化前景及影响

TheAgingofChina’sPopulation:PerspectivesandImplicationsChinamusttaketheagingofitspopulationintoaccountinsocio-economicplanningByQuanheYang*Sincethelate1970s,Chinahasbeenmakingstrongeffortstoacceleratethepaceofmodernization.BecausetheChineseGovernmentconsiderspooreconomicdevelopmentandrapidpopulationgrowthtobethemainobstaclestomodernization,ithasemphasisedbothofthoseaspects.Foreconomicdevelopment,itimplementedeconomicreformfromthelate1970s,particularlyintheruralareasthroughthe“responsibilitysystem”.*TheauthorofthisarticleisQuanheYang,aPh.D.candidateintheDepartmentofDemography,AustralianNationalUniversity.ThisarticleispartofathesisprojectsupportedbyanANUscholarship.TheauthorwouldliketoacknowledgewithgratitudethehelpfulcommentsofG.W.Jones,L.T.RuzickaandP.KaneofANUonpreliminarydraftsofthisarticle.Asia-PacificPopulationJournal,Vol3,No.155Forpopulationgrowth,theGovernmenthasincreasinglyemphasizedpopula-tioncontrol,especiallytheone-childfamilypolicysince1979.However,Chinawillsoonfaceaveryrapidincreaseinitselderlypopulationandtheentirepopulationstructurewillchangerapidly.Chinawillsoonexperienceaspecialtransitionalperiod,aperiodofsocio-economicdevelopmentaccompaniedbyadramaticdemographicchange.PolicymakersanddemographersinChinaaregraduallybecomingcogni-zantoftheimplicationsofcurrentpopulationpolicy,particularlytheone-childpolicy,fortheeventualagingofthecountry’spopulation.Thisarticlereviewsbrieflythechangesinthestatusoftheelderly,exploresthechangesinmagni-tudeoftheoldersegmentofChina’stotalpopulation,andtheirsocialandpolicyimplications.StatusoftheelderlyintraditionalChinaChinahasbeenpredominantlyanagrariansociety,withthepropertyandagriculturalpracticesofdifferentregionsorganizedthroughkinshiptiesandlooselyco-ordinatedbyacentralizedadministration(Levy,1949).Forthousandsofyears,Chinesepeasantslivedontheirlandandhadquitestablelivesunlessdisturbedbyseverenaturaldisastersorcivildisturbances(FeiXiaotong,1948).Underthesecircusmstances,personalexperienceratherthanformaleducationwasthemainsourceofknowledge,andoldpeoplewereconsideredassymbolicofwisdom.Withinthefamily,agewasthekeydeter-minantofauthority;variousrolesregulatedinteractionbetweenagegroups.Filialpietywasjustifiedinpartasreciprocationforthesacrificesmadebyparentsduringchild-rearing(CherryandMagnuson-Martinson,1981;YinandLai,1983).Withadvancingage,workresponsibilitiesdiminished;however,theethnicoffilialpiety,whichincludesprestigeandmaterialsupportfortheelderly,particularlyoldmen,typicallywasupheldbytheclanandthecommu-nity(Levy,1949).AlthoughthehighstatusoftheelderlyintraditionalChinawaslargelytheresultofsocio-economicconditionsandthetraditionalculture,thede-mographicfactofhighmortalitymayhavealsocontributedtothestatusoftheelderly.TheChineseproverb,“tolivetoage70israreisallages”,mayreflectratherhighmortalityinthepast.ThestatusofelderlywomenwasgenerallylowerthanthatofmalesintraditionalChina.Althougholderwomenwereaccordedsomestatusbytheirage,bybearingsons,byacquiringdaughters-in-lawandbymourningthedeathoftheirhusband’sparents,theirstatuswasinjeopardywiththedeathofthehusband(CherryandMagnuson-Martinson,1981).56Asia-PacificPopulationJournal,Vol.3,No.1Socio-economicchangesBytheturnofthecentury,theagehierarchywasbeingundermined.Manyyoungpeoplehadbeguntoacquirenewskillswhichprovidedamodicumofindependenceinanemergingsocialorder,encouragingabroaderrebellionagainstthetraditionalinstitutions.Thesechangeswerefosteredbyagroupthathadhithertobeeninaninferiorpositionintheagehierarchyandforcedsocietytograntmoreconsiderationtotheyoung(Tien,1977;CherryandMagnuson-Martinson,1981;C.K.Yang,1965).Ingeneral,theideologypromulgatedsincetheestablishmentofthePeople’sRepublicofChinahashadaconsiderableinfluenceonthetraditionalattitudestowardsage,becauseyouthformedadynamicelementintheesta-blishmentofthenewregimeandtheninspreadingitsdoctrinesandpolicies.Youngerpeoplealsoassumedrolesofpoliticalimportance.Inparticular,themarriagelawof1950containedseveralfeaturesthatdiminishedparentalauthority.Absoluteparentalauthoritywasreplacedbyreciprocitybetweenparentsandchildren;thelegalinterestsofchildrenwereprotectedandfree-choicemarriagegraduallyreplacedthearrangedmarriage.Furthermore,theeliminationofprivatepropertyandthelandreformofthe1950salsohadanegativeeffectonparentalauthority;thecontroloffamilywealthasapowerfulresourceforparentsdisappeared.Also,themasseducationsystemprovidedmoreopportunitiesforyoungerpeopletoknowabouttheoutsideworld,receivemoreinformationandacceptmorescientificmethodsofproductionetc.,allofwhichconsiderablyreducedthevalueofempiricalknowledge.TheStatealsoemphasizedpatriotismoverfilialpietyandtriedtoshiftthecentreofloyaltyfromthefamilytotheCom-munistParty(YinandLai,1983).AsforChina’sjobassignmentpolicy,thisoftentransfersyoungpeopleawayfromtheirfamilies.Thepolicyisparticularlyseriousfortheelderlywholiveinurbanareasbecause,eveniftheagingcouplehasmorethanonechild,theymaywellbeindistantplacesandunabletoprovidephysicalsup-portfortheirparents.DemographicpolicyandeconomicreformSince1976,Chinahasexp