基于小波分析的电力系统短期负荷预测方法

231Vol.23No.1Jan.200320031ProceedingsoftheCSEE©2003Chin.Soc.forElec.Eng.0258-8013(2003)01-0045-04TM76TM241A,,,,200030NEWPRINCIPLEBASEDONWAVELETTRANSFORMFORPOWERSYSTEMSHORT-TERMLOADFORECASTINGTAINeng-ling,HOUZhi-jian,LITao,JIANGChuan-wen,SONGJiong(ShanghaiJiaoTongUniversity,Shanghai,200030China)ABSTRACT:Analysingthefrequencycharacteristicsofthepowerload,anewmethodfortheshort-termloadforecastingispresentedbasedonthewavelettransform(WT),particularlythemultiresolutionanalysistechnique.BytheWT,thedifferentloadsequencecomponentsareprojectedtothedifferentscalesinwhichthematchingforecastmethodscanbeused.Theforecastingresultsarethenobtainedbythereconstructionoftheforecastresultsindifferentscales.Simulationresultsdemonstratethattheproposedmethodcanofferhigherforecastprecision.KEYWORDS:short-termloadforecasting;wavelettransform;forecastingmethod::;;[1,2]15mine+⋅+=tBAtX00)((1)00,BAe462324h1∑=--+++=niiitittAtBAtLi100)sin(ee)()(0fwbb(2)2∑=-+++=niiiittAtBAtL100)sin(e)()(0fwb(3)3∑=+++=niiiitAtBAtL100)sin()(fw(4)1w1∑=+++=niiiitAtBAtL100)sin()(fw(5)2∑=+++=niiiitAtBAtL100)sin()(fw(6)2xt∫-=tttd)()(1),(atØxataWTx(7)aØ∫∫∞∞-∧∧+∞==0022d|)(|d|)(|ØCwwwØwwwØ(8)∫∫∞∞∞--Ψ-=0dd)(),(1)(aatØtaWTxCxfatt(9)aØ-)(ty-)()(2RLtf∈Znnnt∈-=)}({,0jjZnnnt∈-=)}({,0yy147V0W0∑-=+=≈1)()(NJjjJNWftftf(10)10,,-≤≤∈⊂∈NJWwVVfjjNJJfNfJJJNWjf(t)jBB3B[3]fJ151232(a)(b)1(c)2(d)31Fig.1Wavelettransformresultsoftheload1ij),(jiWsss5≤ij15min|),(||)1,(||),(||)1,(|jiWjiWjiWjiWssss+∩-),(jiWs),(max.jiWs12∑==11_1),(1nisjiWnW0),(jiWs∑==21_2),(1nisjiWnW0),(jiWs4823),(max.jiWs=11max.11--WkWWks),(max.jiWs=22max.21--WkWWks1k2k1.50.53∑==nisjiWnW1_),(1),(max.jiWs=⎪⎩⎪⎨⎧--WjiWWWjiWWss8.0),(8.02.1),(2.1max._max._2LipschitzLipschitz-)(')(txmtxx+=)(tx)('txn(t))()()('tnthtx×=xm)(tx[]∫-=ttYd)()(tmtxWTEaxa(11)∫=0d)(ttY,[]0)(=txWTEa=××==222)]()()([)]('[)]([ttnthEtxWTEtxWTEaaaY=∫wwSwwHnad)()()(ð2122Y∫≤esYsacwwwHnanð2d)()(ð22222(12))(wSn2ns)(tn,∫=wwd)(2Yea2)]([txWTEa03B,31231(ARMA)1Kalman⎩⎨⎧+=+-=)()()()1()(tvcxtytwtxtxa(13))(tx3t)(ty)(),(tvtwac)()()1()()(kykbkxkakx+-=∧∧(14))(ka)(kbKalman23149tttxBBxy)1)(1(9619611--=ΔΔ=(15))(txttytB1-=ttxBx…nttnxxB-=(16)355≤3%1324h0.85[4](1)tu3ij-++=),1((1)[,(),(333jiWjiWjiWuinjiWjiW-+)1(33)],(/)),((17)j∑-=+=113)(),()(niiyjWzjiWujWa(18)iai∑=+1,1iiiaaa)(jWzj2[5],2[6][6]0.1,0.35,0.4548052~4106121824t/h50006000/MW40002Fig.2Theforecastingloadcurveofworkdays06121824t/h40005000/MW600030003Fig.3TheforecastingloadcurveofSaturday06121824t/h35004500/MW550025004Fig.4TheforecastingloadcurveofSunday50231Tab.1Analysisresultsoftheforecastingloadindifferentdays/MW/MW/(%)/MW/MW/(%)/MW/MW/(%)150224972.3-0.9850824938.2-2.8348224816.2-0.12248724925.51.1048524851.5-0.0146824640.3-0.89347534802.91.0548024776.5-0.5345424525.2-0.37447324730.5-0.0446824634.7-1.0144824458.2-0.53547224712.3-0.247524713.0-0.8245924556.6-0.77646954695.00.045974566.7-0.6643874356.7-0.69744594460.10.0248674842.2-0.5144774440.7-0.81852565256.00.051375123.6-0.2647374718.5-0.39961106090.90.3356225622.10.050825073.9-0.161061636045.2-1.9156555657.80.0451555158.60.071161726067.1-1.755295530.70.0354295430.10.021259915881.9-1.8255855595.60.1954255433.10.151362766203.8-1.1557255746.20.3754055414.70.181461946174.0-0.3256755739.11.1354055435.30.561561436122.2-0.3356055657.10.9353655395.60.571662226222.00.056255664.90.7154755496.40.391762896289.00.058055845.10.6956655676.90.211863726372.00.057855815.70.5357655765.60.011961456145.00.057355746.50.255855583.9-0.022059485950.20.0356055611.20.1154955504.90.182158855895.10.1756055606.70.0355755584.50.172253205329.80.0253575358.60.0352475251.70.092352625258.3-0.0751675167.50.0150075008.00.022452325229.4-0.0549324932.90.0248624862.50.011.101%-1.912%1.379%2.850%1.316%-2.911%[1]Yangqixun.Principleofmicro-basedelectricpowerprotection[M].BeijingChinaElectricPowerPublishHouse1997.[2]Yuerkeng,Liuguangyi,Zhoujingyang.Energymanagementsystem[M].BeijingSciencePublishHouse1998.[3]ChuiC.K.Wavelet.Atutorialintheoryandapplications[M].Boston,AcademicPress,1992.[4],ChenZhiye,NiuDongxiao,Zhangyinghuai,etal.Theresearchofpowernetworkshort-termelectricloadforecastingsystem[J].ProceedingoftheCSEE1995,15(1)30-35.[5],Wangjianze,Ranqiwen,Jiyanchao,etalFrequencydomainanalysisofwavelettransforminharmonicsdetection[J].AutomationofElectricPowerSystems1998,22(7)40-43[6](Xiejingdong,TangGuoqing).Theapplicationofthecombinedforecastingmethodinthepowerloadforecast[J].(ElectricPower)1998,63-5.2002-05-18(1972-);(1942-);(1978-)(1966-)(1976-)