从中国犯罪率数据看罪行与刑罚的关系

X:,1988200720,19982003200731(),641,,,,,:,,(100871)X(:,,:,1990,5657),,(:,:,2004,8689),,(2008)2,,,,20,,10%,GDP,,(),,:,?,??,,,,,;,,,441,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:19882007,541,,,,,,,,(DavidMcDowallandColinLoftin,AreU.S.CrimeRateTrendsHistoricallyContingent?JournalofResearchinCrimeandDelinquency,vol.42,no.4,2005,pp.3592383),,:,:;:,:;:,:;:,:;,:;();:,:,,20,,,,,(),,,10,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,64120102,1998,4161%,(2181%),-01958(p=01000),,,,,,,,,,:;,;,;,;;(:,20013):,;,(:,:,2007,15):,13,,,,;,,,:(1),,,(2),15,,(3),5,(4),15,5,,?11120198875151051810141415198917713244131419201519901931927112181826131991204132911115192217199213511186131416201219931361417013141718131994138161911217142410199513916187131812241419961301817811231532101997130151751816192218199815912213111210161019991781823812121516172000287103791612191711200134913453191418191220023371643214121516102003340104291712131515200436310450171113141020053551545017111514162006354104341011171413200736319443121115141074115,,,15,18,120:11,,20,19887515,2007,36319,41820:,,201213%,1115%211%,116%,01996(p=01000),,01989(p=01000),,,,,,,:,,,20?,,,?,,,,,84120102,,,,,,,,,,GDP?,?,,,:,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,GDP,,,,,,,31(),,,,,,GDP,,941:,:,1994,469470:,20061:,20053:,469470:,20004,19602005,(ChorFoonTangandHooiHooiLean,WillInflationIncreaseCrimeRate?NewEvidencefromBoundsandModifiedWaldTests,GlobalCrime,vol.8,no.4(Nov.2007),pp.3112323),,,31,,,,,,,,,():,(1)GDP,,(),GDP(2),,,,,,(3),,,,(4)(5)(6),,,,,,,,,,,(7)(8),,,(9),()()(),,,,(GDP),(10),1(11),1,,,,(12),(),(13),,,(14),199705120102,,,,,,,2219882007199820032007GDP01825018390170801764+014363017210144801713+01794016530147601626+01853017630154001551+01831017260176701842+01790018040175801834+-01928-01554-01441-01363+01807-0135233-01448-01521?01501-0134633-01432-01506?-01823-01630--01867-01596-01772-:1.,,,2.3.(),1,-,(p0105),4.3p=01055;33p=010575.+;-,;?2,20(1)GDP;(2);(3);(4);(5);(6);(7),GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,151:,,,,,,,,,,GDP01996,0199801985019920196801990,GDP,,,,:GDP,,(),,,,,,,,,;,383R2R2adj198820070186201853(Beta=-01928)198820070182001809(Beta=-01906)19980170501694GDP(Beta=01839)19980168301672GDP(Beta=01827)20030156601535GDP(Beta=11093)(Beta=-01462)20030150201466GDP(Beta=11092)(Beta=-01540)20070158401570GDP(Beta=01764)20070150901492GDP(Beta=01713):1.R2,1,2.R2adj,,,3.Beta,4.p0105,5.,,,25120102:SPSS,:,1999,49503,(),GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,3,,,GDP,GDP,;,GDP,,(),,,,,,?,:,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,351,,20022004,174638919211462224555,4012%4317%4711%,20043613,4915,7314,()6210,581443104210(:,20062)D.C.:,,:,1987,7783584196019701980,(TeranceD.Miethe,MichaelHughesandDavidMcDowall,SocialChangeandCrimeRates:AnEvaluationofAlternativeTheoreticalApproaches,Socialforces,,1982,:,,,,,,,1983,1970197510,10:,;;10,,,,,,,20,,,,,,,(),,,,,GDP,,,,,?,,,,,,5,,5vol.70,no.1(Sep.1991)StuartH.TraubandCraigB.Little,eds.,TheoriesofDeviance,Itasca,IL.:F.E.PeacockPublishers,Inc.,1985,pp.1072138.:,:,1999,470471,1996199820002002,(:,20061):,,:,1990,33:,2002145120102,,,,,20-211%,-01836(p=01000);-01810(p=01000),,,?2202202,19971998,1997,?,2090,1973,:,,,,,,,1997,,,1997,1714722,3988818,213;445401,623454,114;14612,30818,211,1997,194881,551,,,JohnJ.DonohueandStevenD.Levitt,TheImpactofLegalizedAbortiononCrime,TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,vol.116,no.2(May2001).157973,Tp0105,,,,,?,20,GDP,(Beta=-01906)(Beta=-01768)(Beta=-01664),R2=01961,9611%,,,:,?,,,,,,,,5,5,,1979176110,15,385121231997157179,15,1979,30455199,1979,19971979,,1979:,5,715,,,,,,641,,,222,223172,20,(10),148,101114,114,(3),138,112103,126,(3),133,10182162,18,10;51051138,60,565120102,,SPSS:COMPUTE=SQRT(3((-)/2+)).EXECUTE.,:,20081;5522110,24,1101997,,,,,,,?,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,20,?,:,751,,(accent),,,(::,:,:,1994,126)::,:,80::,:,94::,:,129130,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,?,,?,,?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,85120102:,;,(:,,:,1995,422),,,,(S.:,,:,1995,6364):,,:,1993,3:,,:,1987,24(),,;(),,,(:,::(framesofsignification),,,1988200720,,,,,,5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,?:,2004,2935)::,:,90,,(thelaw),,(:,,:,2009,38),(),,,,,(:,37)951(8)StructuralStrainintheCourseofSocialTransformationLiHanlinWeiQingongZhangYan121Thestructuraladjustmentandinnovationoccasionedbyinstitutionalchangegiverisetoconflictsandcontradictionsamongdifferentinterestgroups.Theproblemsthatarisefromtheseconflictscanbeattributedtothetensionsofstructuralstrain.Anomieisaclassicstructuralproblem.Onthebasisofsurveydata,weanalyzeandtesttherelationshipbetweenstructuralstrainandanomieandfindthatstructuraldifferencesanddivisionsinsocialstatus,organizationalstructure,rolestructure,powerstatusandincomeandeducationallevelhaveindeedcontributedtotheriseofanomie.Suchnegativephenomenaasindividualanomie,degreeofdissatisfaction,relativedeprivationandstatusinconsistencyderive,toaverylargeextent,fromtheimbalancesandtensionsthatarisefromthefactthatobjectivestructuraldivisionshaveoutpacedinstitutionalintegration.(9)TheRelationshipamongCriminalCharges,CrimeandPenaltiesAPerspectiveBasedonChinapsCrimeRateStatisticsBaiJianjun144Toassistingainingabetterunderstandingoftherelationshipamongcriminalcharges