博弈论模型在解决水资源管理中利益冲突的运用

20098SHUILIXUEBAO408:2008-06-18:(1973-),,,,,E-mail:[e-mail]:0559-9350(2009)08-0910-09魏守科1,雷阿林2,AlbrechtGnauck1(1,03046;2,430051):,,,,,,015~032059~0364008~029,66201~121833,,,,,:;;;;;:TV213:12025,7950,[1],[2-3],[4-5],,[6-7],,,,,[6-7][8-9],,,ShapleyNash[10][5][5,11-12]6,1/4,,,,,365%,81%,50,,,,910221,,,11577km,3008~4011,10612~11414159000km2,,19561998,566m3,582m39007mm,19562000,36796m3,3878m3,70%95m3,121m3,140m3119892002,(GB3838-2002)[13],,20032,017mgL230mg/L[14],22[15-19][23][23][15,17-19,24],-,-,,,(1),Cij=Pijlijijkijij(1):Ciji,;j;Pij;lijijkijij,[25-28],()1,,1,08,09,[27]1911(2),(2),(3)Cmax=-0127*t+2551(2)Cmin=-0177*t+3553(3):Cmax;Cmin;t,(3),,,(),,,,[29,30-34],,,23-,(CODMn)(BOD5)(NH3-N)(TP)(TN)1995200422,20012003,,,,91231,,,,,,,,,33,,,,(),()()():,,4(Ci,Ri)32,:(1);(2),,,;(3),;;(4),;(5)(C1)(C2)(C3);(C5)(C6);(R2)(R3)(R4)(R1);(6)1263%,1263%;(7)50%321定义博弈:G=N,Si,Vi(4):N;Sii;Vii(1):(R1),P1(C1)(C2)(C3),P2(C4),P3(C5)(C6),P4:N={P1,P2,P3}(5)P1={R1}(6)P2={C1,C2,C3}(7)P3={C4}(8)P4={C5,C6}(9)Rm,Cn={},m=1,n=1,2,,6(10)913(2):,(N)(C),:Si=Si1=CSi2=Nc(11),P1,P2P3P4P1,,P1(t),:si=WtiSi=[0,),i=1(12)-,:si=PtiSi=[0,),i=2,3,4(13)(3):,P1,P2P3P4,:Vi=f(Wti),i=1g(-Pti),i=2,3,4(14):Vi;Wti;-Pti322博弈过程模拟,(Commonknowledge)5,(C)(N)P1,,P2P2P1,P2,P3,,P4,,(N,N,N,N)(V1,V2,V3,V4)(C,C,C,C)(U1,U2,U3,U4),5441,120102015,538m3410m3,,,914201020151m3220052010,2010,,200520101632~3562t,892~5062t456~1685t12(t),,0000000,120102015()80198~15354,()()()20052010015~032059~336008~029,,11(W)(Q)(:m3)WQ20105.381.3520115.101.2820124.831.2120134.581.1520144.331.0920154.101.042(N2,N3,N4)(:ta)N2N3N42005163.289.245.62006182.3134.458.62007286.5259.0101.72008269.4286.0105.52009271.5334.9117.02010356.2506.2168.51:(:,)tV1V2V3V4U1U2U3U420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015(-000.000.150.590.08)(000.00-0.15-0.59-0.08)(-000.000.170.890.10)(000.00-0.17-0.89-0.10)(-000.000.261.720.18)(000.00-0.26-1.72-0.18)(-000.000.251.900.18)(000.00-0.25-1.90-0.18)(-000.000.252.220.20)(000.00-0.25-2.22-0.20)(-801.980.323.360.29)(801.98-0.32-3.36-0.29)(-905.860.000.000.00)(905.86-0.00-0.00-0.00)(-1028.60.000.000.00)(1028.6-0.00-1.00-0.00)(-1174.80.000.000.00)(1174.8-0.00-1.00-0.00)(-1338.50.000.000.00)(1338.5-0.00-0.00-0.00)(-1535.40.000.000.00)(1535.4-0.00-0.00-0.00),,,(ConsumerPriceIndex)2015~032059~036008~029,66283~1222366201~121833;,66201~121833P1,,,(dominatestrategy),P1,,(prisonersdilemma)915,,,,66201~121833,,2:(:,)tV1V2V3V4U1U2U3U4200520062007200820092010(-662.830.150.590.08)(662.83-0.15-0.59-0.08)(-714.200.170.890.10)(714.20-0.17-0.89-0.10)(-791.730.261.720.18)(791.73-0.26-1.72-0.18)(-901.750.251.900.18)(901.75-0.25-1.90-0.18)(-1040.90.250.220.20)(1040.9-0.25-2.22-0.20)(-1222.30.323.360.29(1222.3-0.32-3.36-0.29)42,50%50%,,,,1263%,1263%,5,,:(1),;(2),;(3),,:(1),,;(2),,;(3),,,,,:[1]LeeteR,DonnayF,KersemaekerS,etal.Globalpoulationandwater,UNFP:Areportonpopulationanddevelopmentstrategiesseries[R].number6.NewYork:UNFPA,2003.[2]GiglioRJ,WrightingtonR.Methodsforapportioningthecostsofawaterresourceproject[J].WaterResourc.Res.,1972,8:1133-1144.[3]DinarA,HowittRE.Mechnismsforallocationofenvironmentalcontrolcost:Empiricaltestofacceptabilityandstability[J].Environ.Management,1997,49:183-203.[4]WeiShouke,GnauckA.Gametheoreticapproachestomodelwaterconflictsonariverbasinscale[C]Modellingand916SimulationofEcosystems.Aachen:Shaker,2007:22-40.[5]WolfAT.Criteriaforequitableallocations:Theheartofinternationalwaterconflict[J].NaturalResourcesForum,1999,23:3-30.[6].[M].:,1999.[7],.[J].,2004,24(1):71-76.[8]HeanyJP,DichinsonRE.Methodsforapportioningthecostsofawaterresourceproject[J].WaterResourc.Res.,1982,18(3):476-482.[9]YoungHP,OkadaN,HashimotoT.Costallocationinwaterresourcedevelopment[J].WaterResourc.Res.,1982,18(3):463-475.[10]LejanoRP,DavosCA.Costallocationofmultiagencywaterresourceprojects:Gametheoreticapproachesandcasestudy[J].WaterResour.Res.,1995,31(5):1387-1393.[11]WangLZ,FangL,HipelKW.Waterresourceallocation:Acooperativegameapproach[J].Environ.Informatics,2003,2(1):11-22.[12]WeiShouke,GnauckA.WatersupplyandwaterdemandofBeijingAgametheoreticapproachformodelling[C]InformationtechnologiesinEnvironmentalEngineering.Springer,BerlinHeidelberg,2007:525-536.[13]GB38382002,[S].[14],.[J].,2004(3):46-49.[15].(1996-2007)[Z].:,1997-2008.[16].(2001-2007)[Z].:,2002-2008.[17].(1996-2005)[Z].:,1997-2006.[18].(1994-2007)[Z].:,1995-2008.[19].(1994-2007)[Z].:,1995-2008.[20].(1998-2004)[R].:,1998-2004.[21].(1998-2006)[R].,1998-2006.[22],.[J].,2005,3(3):436-439.[23].[C].2003.:,2003.[24].(2000-2006)[Z].:,2001-2007.[25],,,.[J].,2006,26(3):366-374.[26],,,.[J].,2006,26(3):392-397.[27],,,.[J].,200629():164-165.[28],,.[R].2004.[29],.[J].,2003(8):111-117.[30],.[J].,2003(10):68-74.[31],.[M].:,2004.[32],,,.[J].,2003(10):101-107.[33]WeiShouke.ManagingworldheritagesitesinChinafromaneconomicperspective[D].Berlin:Dissertation.de-Verlag,2005.[34],,,.[J].,2005,36(5):613-617.917ApplicationofgametheoreticmodelstosolvethebenefitconflictsinwaterresourcesmanagementWEIShou-ke1,LEIA-lin2,AlbrechtGnauck1(1.BrandenburgUniversityofTe