(黄世忠)报表分析新思维(之一)--报表分析的逻辑切入点

2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute1厦门国家会计学院报表分析新思维(之一)报表分析的逻辑切入点黄世忠Ph.DCPA.MBA联系电话:0592-257777813906016965电子邮件:[e-mail]单位邮址:阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点基于M公司与GFC公司的案例分析案例分析德隆的垮台与财务报表的预警信号中石油的经营记录与业绩评价移动电信的辉煌业绩与潜在风险本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系研讨要点与目的2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute3三大核心问题问题1M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？问题2M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？问题3如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute44.8109.15.1103.35.5101.55.7103.46.1104.17.191.37.978.40204060801001202001200220032004200520062007M公司GFC公司经营规模--雇员人数2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute56768832796977794310266708989969671566146253020004000600080001000012000200220032004200520062007M公司GFC公司经营规模--资产总额2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute62845236322521636855743985471443567551157630100020003000400050006000200220032004200520062007M公司GFC公司经营规模—销售收入2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute7520145486158411146434166-182144140155-200-1000100200300400500600200220032004200520062007GFC公司M公司经营规模--CFFOA2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute82541709291493129369463361127418573850500100015002000250030003500200220032006.12.312007.12.312008.11.7MGFC股票市值(Capitalization)2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute95405326108047488614817284013613112210100200300400500600700800900200220032004200520062007M公司GFC公司财务实力—净资产2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute106278491009782-53122-103126-354141-400-350-300-250-200-150-100-50050100150200220032004200520062007GFC公司M公司经营绩效—净利润2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute11财务数据：GFCv.sM(2002)项目名称GFC公司M公司倍数GFC合计M雇员人数36.535.036.8108.35.0521.45资产总额3,7182,9522,1928,86267613.11销售收入1,8601,6261,7505,23628418.44现金流量1711862085651453.90股票市值2001963137092,5410.28股东权益68564085325400.99净利润17-105562780.79ROE25%-18%13%12%14%0.86新经济与旧经济的反差2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute121.科学管理(时间和动作研究)2.成本核算和差异分析3.商业研究实验室(科学产业化)(GE)4.(ROI&ROE)资本分析和资本预算5.品牌管理(P&G)6.大规模项目管理7.事业部制(GM)8.领导力开发(GE)9.产业内联合(多公司合作组织)(Visa)10.极度分权化(自我组织)(Google)11.正式化战略分析12.员工驱动问题解决法(Toyota)DuPontAnalysis13.臭鼬工厂(内部攻坚小组)14.客户管理15.业务流程再造1900-2000年175项管理创新1.是否明显脱离以前的管理实践2.是否给率先创新的公司带来竞争优势3.是否在当今的组织中留下烙印20世纪现代管理的12大创新2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute13净资产收益率(收入+利得)–(成本+费用+损失)实收资本+资本公积+盈余公积+未分配利润净利润ROE=净资产做大分子:增收节支做小分母:光明正道:资本结构歪门邪道:亏损挥霍ROE陷阱2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute14财务数据：GFCv.sM(2003)项目名称GFC公司M公司倍数GFC合计M雇员人数32.332.838.4103.55.718.2资产总额4,4853,0462,2469,77779612.3销售收入1,8551,6421,7195,21632216.2现金流量762022084861583.1股票市值2182594539302,9150.32股东权益2521174348036101.32净利润384.95.648.599.90.49ROE15%4%1.3%6%16%0.38新经济与旧经济的强烈反差2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute15盈利质量现金流量资产质量财务报表分析的三大逻辑切入点2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute16盈利质量收入质量利润质量毛利率成长性波动性研发营销盈利质量分析方法2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute17收入质量(QualityofRevenue)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)19991971690160114822000230173916981603200125316911609154020022841773162314742003322185516421364200436819351709142120053981926177114982006443207316011516200751118811725152620086042020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute180501001502002503003501999200020012002200320042005200620072008GFDM收入质量(QualityofRevenue)2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute19利润质量(QualityofProfit)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999796072572000944535792001736-55-720027817-104720039538542004902835252005122-10620282006126-21-124322007141-387-254020081772020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute20-400-300-200-10001002003001999200020012002200320042005200620072008GFCM利润质量(QualityofProfit)2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute21RivalAmountDateTimeWarner$750mMay2003SunMicro$1.95bApril2004Novell$536mNov.2004Burst.com$60mMarch2005Gateway$150mApril2005IBM$775mJune2005Total$4.221bMicrosoftSettlement(Antitrustsuitfiledin1998,settledin2001)2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute22项目名称GMFordDaimlerChrysler200420052004200520042005销售收入1,935.171,926.041,716.461,781.011,682.261,773.65其中:汽车1,615.461,582.211,471.281,545.151,517.191,590.82金融319.71343.83245.18235.86165.07182.83净利润27.89-105.5434.8719.9829.2033.70其中:汽车-1.05-130.62-1.55-39.26n.an.a金融28.0825.0850.0858.81n.an.a经营业绩:2005vs.20042020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute232006:艰难的转折?ChryslerGroup2006OperatingLoss$152007totalLoss$29.2May15,2007soldfor$74May10,1998boughtfor$360GMFordDCXQ14.45-11.872.99Q2-33.79-2.5418.10Q3-1.15-58.005.51Q4+9.50-51.645.67Total-20.99-124.0532.272007:-$3872008Q3:-$213SEasoftheendof2008Q3GM:-599;Ford:-202008Q3-$872020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute24毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)会计年度GFCM20019.2%1.8%16.1%86.3%20027.8%6.8%18.8%81.6%20038.0%6.2%19.4%81.2%20047.0%7.8%19.4%81.8%2005-2.5%5.6%17.9%84.4%20064.8%-3.9%17.1%81.1%20076.7%7.6%24.8%79.1%200880.8%2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute25M公司的成本费用结构35444952435461607667788362628777669810771115116821300%20%40%60%80%100%20012002200320042005200620072008COSR&DS&A3EStrategyEmbrace,Extend,Extinguish2020/6/18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute26R&D占销售收入比重17.31%3.89%15.18%4.43%20.49%4.04%21.12%3.98%15.54%3.77%14.87%3.31%13.93%3.48%0.00%5.00%