通勤者出行方式与出行链选择行为研究

27　620106　　　　　　　JournalofHighwayandTransportationResearchandDevelopmentVol.27　No.6　　Jun.2010:1002-0268(2010)06-0107-05:2009-08-12:(50878129):(1977-),,,,.([e-mail])栾　琨1,2,隽志才1,宗　芳1(1.　,　　130025;2.　,　　223003):通过分析2005年北京市居民出行调查数据,构造通勤者上班出行方式选择和出行链类型选择相互影响的NestedLogit模型,分别建立出行方式※出行链和出行链※出行方式两个方向模型结构,采用统计软件STATA9.0对模型进行标定,并利用包容系数对NestedLogit模型的结构关系进行辨识。结果表明,出行方式选择和出行链类型选择之间不是单方向影响关系,而是一种双向的相互作用关系;出行链※出行方式选择决策较为合理,反应通勤者倾向于首先考虑如何组织当天要参加的各种活动,然后在出行链安排的约束下考虑选择合适的出行方式。:交通工程;选择行为;NL模型;出行链;出行方式;包容系数:U491.1　　　　　:AResearchonCommuter'sChoiceBehaviorbetweenTravelModeandTripChainLUANKun1,2,JUANZhicai1,ZONGFang1(1.CollegeofTransportation,JilinUniversity,Changchun　Jilin　130025,China;2.SchoolofTransportationEngineering,HuaiyinInstituteofTechnology,Huai'an　Jiangsu　223003,China)Abstract:Basedontheanalysisofdatadrawnfromthe2005BeijingHouseholdTravelSurvey,aNestedLogitmodelwasappliedtoconstructtheinterdependentmodelbetweencommuters'tripchainandtravelmodelchoices.Themodelstructuresinthedirectionfromtravelmodetotripchainandintheoppositedirectionweresetup.Then,themodelswerecalibratedwithhelpofSTATA9.0statisticsoftware,andthestructureoftheNestedLogitmodelwasidentifiedbyusinginclusivevalueparameter.Theresultshowsthattherelationshipbetweentravelmodeandtripchainchoicesisnotunidirectionalbutbidirectional.Thedecision-makingfromtripchaintotravelmodeisrelativelyreasonable,reflectingthatcommutersareadepttothinkaboutthedailyactivityatfirstandthentochooseanappropriatetravelmodeundertheconstraintsoftripchain.Keywords:trafficengineering;choicebehavior;NestedLogitmodel;tripchain;travelmode;inclusivevalueparameter0　,,TDM(TravelDemandManagement)TCM(TravelControlMeasurement)[1]。,,,。,,[2-3],,。(),,、、[4-5]。:;。,。,,[6]。,,,,。,。,。,NestedLogit,。1　NestedLogit1.1　NestedLogitNestedLogit(NL),Logit(MNL),[7]。NL,MNL。1NL。1　-Fig.1　Tree-structurediagramoftripchainandtravelmodechoicesin(i=1,2);j(j=1,2,…,8),xij。2,i,jPji[8]:Pji=exp(β′xij)∑Nik=1exp(β′xik),(1)IVi=ln[∑Nik=1exp(β′xik)]。(2)Pi(inclusivevalues,IVi),,。i,2,2IV。IVi1,logitlogit,logit。Pii:Pi=exp(α′ωi+λiIVi)∑2m=1exp(α′ωm+λmIVm)。(3)(1)(3),αβ;ωi;λi(inclusivevalueparameter)。,Pij:Pij=Pj|iPi=exp(β′xij)∑Nik=1exp(β′xik)·exp(α′ωi+λiIVi)∑2m=1exp(α′ωm+λmIVm)。(4)1.2　NL,,,。,,;,[9]。,λi,[10],:(1)λi=1,,NL、,。(2)λi=0.9,。(3)λi=0.5,。(4)λi=0.1,。(5)λi=0,。NL、,、,logit。(6)λi0,,,。(7)λi1,,,,[11]。,0λi1,NL108　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　27。2　20053,285829262926。、,、、,。,95%,。,,,200526.95%,,。、、(、)、(、)4。。1-。1　-Tab.1　Contingencytableofcommuter'stripchain-travelmodechoice14016964571102531271211376419014528817588352926/%30.9719.1885.098.5035.0369.0380.8214.9191.5064.97100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00/%13.6616.4962.936.93100.0016.4137.455.9540.19100.0015.4530.1125.9128.54100.00　　1,,,37.45%40.19%。、、,,。,,。,,,62.93%。,。3　12NL,。,,,1。,,,。,λ0.470.84。λ1,。λ2,。,,2。2　-Fig.2　Tree-structurediagramoftravelmodeandtripchainchoice2,、、λ0.61、0.43、0.83、0.60。0λ1,NL※,。4　,23。,Chain※ModeMode※Chain。λ,,Chain※Mode0.41Mode※Chain0.29,Chain※Mode。,,。NLIVi=ln[∑Nik=1exp(β′xik)],Chain※Mode,。:,1096　　　　　　　　　　　　　　,:　　　　　　　　　　　　　,,2　Tab.2　Definitionsofmodelvariables(1:;0:)gender1:18-34;0:young1:35-55;0:middle(1:;0:)license(1:;0:)ticketservice/2500income12501～3500income23501～5500income35501～10000income4carnumbikenum2fsize13fsize23jobman6(1:0:)child6/m1∶0～1500;0:distance11∶1501～5000;0:distance28(1:0:)startbf89(1:0:)starrtaf9/minworkduration,;,,;6,;,,,;,,。,。2,。3,,3,,。3,,,。,:;,、、,,3　Tab.3　ResultofmodelcalibrationChain※Modet-Mode※Chaint-ModechoiceChainchoiceGender20.302.39Gender20.462.20Bikenum20.8113.09Middle21.646.31Income120.583.58Distance121.033.34Young21.085.86Fsize12-1.02-3.49Fsize120.603.22Jobman2-0.93-3.66startaf920.732.81Service31.492.82Income330.421.66Workdura～30.0110.01Income430.722.42Fsize130.932.16Distance13-3.39-13.11Middle40.713.03Gender40.221.92Child640.451.93Young41.117.79Fsize140.982.31Startaf940.411.91Licence50.731.81Distance251.233.52Middle5-0.85-2.63Fsize15-0.42-1.94Income350.731.88Bikenum60.789.96Workdura～50.014.41Distance260.462.13Gender61.244.20Startbf860.182.07Licence64.476.00Gender70.875.87Workdura～6-0.01-4.98Licence73.1614.61Ticket73.942.71Carnum71.9812.18Income270.332.03Distance17-2.26-9.10Distance27-0.37-1.78Distance27-2.84-5.39Gender8-1.56-7.17Jobman7-0.51-3.28Middle8-1.03-5.03Ticket82.337.60Income28-0.75-2.30Young81.586.37ModechoiceDistance18-1.91-8.27Bikenum20.456.84ChainchoiceIncome120.241.74Middle21.0336.59Income33-0.36-1.65Child620.542.42Startbf84-0.62-5.86Fsize220.292.34Startaf94-0.33-1.85Distance122.619.15Carnum4-0.38-2.86Numberofcases=2926LL(0)=-5245.1031　ρ2=0.41Numberofcases=2926LL(β)=-2891.7179LL(0)=-4062.893.3　ρ2=0.29。,。5　,NestedLogit,。,,Chain※Mode,,110　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　27,。,。。,,、、、,,,。:References:[1]　BEN-AKIVAM,LERMANSR.DiscreteChoiceAnalysis:TheoryandApplicationtoTravelDemand[M].Cambridge,MA:theMITPress,1985.[2]　CHENTuansheng,MAOBaohua.CommuterTravelBehaviorResearchBasedonActivity-chaining[C]//Proceedingsofthe2ndChina/JapanJointSeminaronUrbanDevelopmentandIntelligentTransportSystemsfortheFutu