中正大学演讲

20090520中正大學演講政治大學法律系系主任郭明政•國際•台灣虧損多少？國際TheFinancialCrisisandMandatoryPensionSystemsinDevelopingCountries,WorldBank–HumanDevelopmentNetworkLossesinassetvaluesoverthelast12monthsreportedbypensionfundshavebeenconsiderable.Inclientcountrieswithfundedsystemstheselosseshaverangedbetween8%and50%.(p.1)虧損多少？國際OECDWorkingPapersonInsuranceandPrivatePensionsNo.36─PrivatePensionsandPolicyResponsestotheFinancialandEconomicCrisisThecurrentfinancialcrisishashadamajorimpactonglobalpensionassets,withtheOECDestimatingdeclinesof$5.4tn(over20%)attheendof2008.虧損多少？國際Analysis:Socialsecurityinatimeoffinancialcrisis(ISSA,08.12.2008)Whentakingintoaccounttheincreasingroleoffullypre-fundedschemesinold-ageprotection─theimmediatenegativeimpactofthecurrentglobalfinancialcrisisonsocialsecurityisobvious:accordingtotheOECD,developedcountrystockmarketshavelost43percentoftheirvalueinayear.IntheUnitedStatesalone,assetsinretirementplansdroppedinvaluebyaboutUSD4trillion,halfofwhichwereindefinedbenefitplans.虧損多少？國際Pensionfundlosseshighlightneedforprivatepensionreform,saysOECD(11/12/2008)……ByOctober2008,thetotalassetsofprivatepensionplansinOECDcountrieshaddeclinedbyaboutUSD5trillion,ornearly20%oftheirvaluecomparedtoDecember2007whentheirassetsstoodatUSD28trillion.Twothirdsofthelosses(USD3.3trillion)areestimatedtobeintheUnitedStatesalone,withtheUnitedKingdom,Australia,Canada,theNetherlands,andJapanaccountingonaggregateforafurtherUSD1.2trilliondropinassetvalues.虧損多少？國際PensionstocklossmaybelessonPlungeinvaluecomesamidinvestmentdebate(April16,2009)Buttherailroadretirementfundhasdonepoorlyinrecentmonths.……it’sreportsindicatethefunddroppedinvaluebymorethanone-third,andperhapsasmuchas40percent,fromSeptember2007toFebruary2009,aftertakingbenefitpaymentsintoaccount.虧損多少？台灣中國時報2009.01.24新制勞退慘賠每人虧3793元唐鎮宇／台北報導攸關勞工退休生活的勞保與新舊制勞退基金，去年雙雙創下史上最高虧損，總計慘賠一千一百多億。……新制勞退基金前三年每人平均獲利470元，但去年一整年慘賠177億，收益率呈現負6.06％，每位選新制的勞工平均虧損3793元。一來一往，這四年來選新制的勞工平均虧了3323元。至於舊制勞退採「確定給付制」(DB)，基金虧損並不會影響到勞工的退休給付金額，但舊制勞退金去年也碰到成立廿二年來的首度虧損，賠了428億，收益率為-10％。勞保基金虧損最慘，受擠兌潮與金融海嘯的雙重夾擊，虧損548億。……虧損多少？台灣2009.01.2403:07am勞保勞退基金去年大賠【經濟日報╱記者黃依歆／台北報導】97年勞保、新舊制勞退三大基金績效昨（23）日出爐，共慘賠1,152億元。其中，勞保基金年度虧損16.53%，國內外股票共虧三成餘，金融海嘯不僅重創失業勞工，在職勞工荷包也苦哈哈。AvertingtheoldagecrisisWB的主張Avertingtheoldagecrisis:policiestoprotecttheoldandpromotegrowthButtheevidencesuggeststhatpublicscheme(PAYG)thatcombinethesefunctionsareproblematic─forbothefficiencyanddistributionalreasons.……Butthesesamebenefitsrequirehighcontributionratesoncethepopulationagesandschemesmature.……Butthedefinedbenefitformulasdonotmakebenefitsactuariallycontingentonthesecontributions.……Theyalsoleadtostrategicmanipulationthatenablesworkerstoescapemuchofthetaxbutstillqualifyforbenefits─therebycausingfinancialdifficultiesforthesystem.Adominantpay-as-you-gopublicpillaralsomissesanopportunityforcapitalmarketdevelopment.WB的主張AvertingtheOldAgeCrisisWB的主張AvertingtheOldAgeCrisisWorldbank3pillarThepublicpillarwouldhavethelimitedobjectofalleviatingoldagepovertyandcoinsuringagainstamultitudeofrisks.Backedbythegovernment’spoweroftaxation,thispillarhastheuniqueabilitytopaybenefitstopeoplegrowingoldshortlyaftertheplanisintroduced,toredistributeincometowardthepoor,andtocoinsureagainstlongspellsoflowinvestmentreturns,recession,inflation,andprivatemarketfailures.Asecondmandatorypillar—onethatisfullyfundedandprivatelymanaged—wouldlinkbenefitsactuariallytocostsandcarryouttheincome-smoothingorsavingfunctionforallincomegroupswithinthepopulation.Thislinkshouldavoidsomeoftheeconomicandpoliticaldistortionstowhichthepublicpillarisprone.Fullfundingshouldboostcapitalaccumulationandfinancialmarketdevelopment.Theeconomicgrowththisinducesshouldmakeiteasiertofinancethepublicpillar.Butasuccessfulsecondpillarshouldreducethedemandonthefirstpillar.Thesecondmandatorypillarcouldtaketwoalternativeforms：personalsavingaccountsoroccupationalplans.Ineithercase,mandatoryprogramsrequirecarefulregulation.Voluntaryoccupationalorpersonalsavingplanswouldbethethirdpillar,providingadditionalprotectionforpeoplewhowantmoreincomeandinsuranceintheiroldage.•JosephE.Stiglitz•Modigliani•NicholasBarrJosephE.StiglitzRethinkingReform:TenMythsAboutSocialSecuritySystems,November1999Myth1:PrivateDefinedContributionPlansRaiseNationalSavingsMyth2:RatesofReturnAreHigherunderIndividualAccountsMyth3:DecliningRatesofReturnonPay-As-You-GoSystemsReflectFundamentalProblemswithThoseSystemsMyth4:InvestmentofPublicTrustFundsinEquitiesHasNoMacroeconomicEffectsorWelfareImplicationMyth5:LaborMarketIncentivesAreBetterunderPrivateDefinedContributionPlansMyth6:DefinedBenefitplansNecessarilyProvideMoreofanIncentivetoRetireEarlyMyth7:CompetitionEnsuresLowAdministrativeCostsunderPrivateDefinedContributionPlansMyth8:InefficientGovernmentsProvideaRationaleforPrivateDefinedContributionPlansMyth9:BailoutPoliticsAreWorseunderPublicDefinedBenefitPlansThanunderPrivateDefinedContributionPlansMyth10:InvestmentofPublicTrustFundsIsAlwaysSquanderedandMismanagedJosephE.StiglitzRethinkingReform:TenMythsAboutSocialSecuritySyst