从中国和东亚国家全球供应竞争视角看人民币升值问题

:2010322:11,,:,31001821,:,31001831,:,310018:(70973111)(70773104)123×Ø,,,,,,,,×Ø×ØF82210×ØA×Ø1000-6052(2010)03-0101-06,,,,,,(,2005,2008),,,,,,,,(,2007),,,(1)2005720%,1997,,10%-30%,,,1,Fagerberg(1988)10120103TurnerVan’tdack(1993),,(UnitLaborCosts,ULC)LipshitzMcDonald(1991),TumerGolub(1997),(),MarshTokarick(1994),,(2006)1980-2002,(1980-1994)(1994-2002),(2008)1980-200721,,,,,,,,,,,,,()1.,,,1,1/a[1]w,1:ulc=wa(1):REERi=jiULCiRjULCjRjwij(2),ULCii,Rj(),wijj[2],i,j,:wij=kWkiSkjkWki(1-Ski)(3)Skjjk,,jkWkjik,,kiTk1lkskj=Tkj/lTkl(4)wki=TkinTni(5)(2),(REER-ULC),,,(),REER-ULC,;,,(),REER-ULC,2.,4,,,(IMF,2009),,,20120103,50%,1990-2008REER-ULC,:(1)(2)(ULC)GDP,(LCU,2005=100)1990,LCUGDPBVD(3)(UNCommodityTradeStatisticsDatabase),ISICKeyIndicatorsforAsiaandthePacific2009(),,1.2REER-ULC(1990-2008),1990-2008:1990-1997,REER-ULC(),199669105%,1997,8184%;1997-2004,REER-ULC,(),182150%,26107%,2001;,2004-2008,REER-ULC,80130%,20108%,2008,2313ULC,:1990-1997;1997-2004,,;2004-2008,(,2006;,2008),,2.,1990-1997,,,199411,,1994,1994,,1997,,1997-2004,8128,,2002(3),,200241150%,8130%,2004-2008,,20082004121133%(2),,[3],,200530120103,3()1.,,(2),,,,4,1990-1997,,,,1991-1996,1996,,,,,,1997,,4REER-ULC1997,REER-ULC1998199784152%,(2),,2004-2008,,,4REER-ULC2.(5),1994,1997,,,,,,1998,;(,2008;,2009),,,2008,,,,,5(6),,1997,,,,50%,,200340120103,,ULC5,,6ULCULC,,,787,1990-1997,,1997,,1997851552008389163,355144%,8,1997,,20042008,121133%,40%,,1997,2004,,19971998,,6,,1997,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,:,,,50120103,,,,,,:1.,,,,,;,,,,;,,,2.,,,,,;,,,,;,,,3.,,,,,,,,,,,4.,,,(,2008),,,,,():[1]a,GDP(GDP=GDP/)[2]BIS(Lea2hy,1998),,,[3](1):dulc=dw-dadulc,dw,da,dadw,dadw:,;,FDIdqCanRMBApreciate?FromaPerspectiveofGlobalSupplyCompetitionbetweenChinaandEastAsiaChenZhi2angHuXian2longZhuQiu2qiAbstract:FromtheperspectiveofglobalsupplycompetitionbetweenChinaandEastAsiancountries,thispaperanalyzesthetrendsandcausesofChinaandfourEastAsiancountriespexportcompetitivenessfrom1990to2008bybuildingunitlaborcosts2basedrealeffectiveexchangeratemodel1Empiricalstudieshaveshownthatun2dertheconditionsofasubstantialincreaseinChinapslaborproductivity,declineofunitlaborcostandasmallin2creaseinthenominalexchangerate,ChinapsrelativerealeffectiveexchangerateincreasessharplyagainstfourcountriesinEastAsia1Keywords:EastAsianEconomy;RealEffectiveExchangeRate;ExportCompetitiveness60120103