如何作价值评估

1AnSummaryofValuationMethodsds2SomeInitialThoughtsOnehundredthousandlemmingscannotbewrongGraffitiWethoughtwewereinthetopoftheeighthinning,whenweinthebottomoftheninth..StanleyDruckenmiller3AphilosophicalbasisforValuation“Valuationisoftennotahelpfultoolindeterminingwhentosellhypergrowthstocks”,HenryBlodget,MerrillLynchEquityResearchAnalystinJanuary2000,inareportonInternetCapitalGroup,whichwastradingat$174then.nTherehavealwaysbeeninvestorsinfinancialmarketswhohavearguedthatmarketpricesaredeterminedbytheperceptions(andmisperceptions)ofbuyersandsellers,andnotbyanythingasprosaicascashflowsorearnings.nPerceptionsmatter,buttheycannotbeallthematter.nAssetpricescannotbejustifiedbymerelyusingthe“biggerfool”theory.Postscript:InternetCapitalGroupwastradingat$3inJanuary2001.4MisconceptionsaboutValuationnMyth1:Avaluationisanobjectivesearchfor“true”value•Truth1.1:Allvaluationsarebiased.Theonlyquestionsarehowmuchandinwhichdirection.•Truth1.2:Thedirectionandmagnitudeofthebiasinyourvaluationisdirectlyproportionaltowhopaysyouandhowmuchyouarepaid.nMyth2.:Agoodvaluationprovidesapreciseestimateofvalue•Truth2.1:Therearenoprecisevaluations•Truth2.2:Thepayofftovaluationisgreatestwhenvaluationisleastprecise.nMyth3:.Themorequantitativeamodel,thebetterthevaluation•Truth3.1:One’sunderstandingofavaluationmodelisinverselyproportionaltothenumberofinputsrequiredforthemodel.•Truth3.2:Simplervaluationmodelsdomuchbetterthancomplexones.5ApproachestoValuationnDiscountedcashflowvaluation,relatesthevalueofanassettothepresentvalueofexpectedfuturecashflowsonthatasset.nRelativevaluation,estimatesthevalueofanassetbylookingatthepricingof'comparable'assetsrelativetoacommonvariablelikeearnings,cashflows,bookvalueorsales.nContingentclaimvaluation,usesoptionpricingmodelstomeasurethevalueofassetsthatshareoptioncharacteristics.6BasisforallvaluationapproachesnTheuseofvaluationmodelsininvestmentdecisions(i.e.,indecisionsonwhichassetsareundervaluedandwhichareovervalued)arebasedupon•aperceptionthatmarketsareinefficientandmakemistakesinassessingvalue•anassumptionabouthowandwhentheseinefficiencieswillgetcorrectednInanefficientmarket,themarketpriceisthebestestimateofvalue.Thepurposeofanyvaluationmodelisthenthejustificationofthisvalue.7DiscountedCashFlowValuationnWhatisit:Indiscountedcashflowvaluation,thevalueofanassetisthepresentvalueoftheexpectedcashflowsontheasset.nPhilosophicalBasis:Everyassethasanintrinsicvaluethatcanbeestimated,baseduponitscharacteristicsintermsofcashflows,growthandrisk.nInformationNeeded:Tousediscountedcashflowvaluation,youneed•toestimatethelifeoftheasset•toestimatethecashflowsduringthelifeoftheasset•toestimatethediscountratetoapplytothesecashflowstogetpresentvaluenMarketInefficiency:Marketsareassumedtomakemistakesinpricingassetsacrosstime,andareassumedtocorrectthemselvesovertime,asnewinformationcomesoutaboutassets.8AdvantagesofDCFValuationnSinceDCFvaluation,doneright,isbaseduponanasset’sfundamentals,itshouldbelessexposedtomarketmoodsandperceptions.nIfgoodinvestorsbuybusinesses,ratherthanstocks(theWarrenBuffettadage),discountedcashflowvaluationistherightwaytothinkaboutwhatyouaregettingwhenyoubuyanasset.nDCFvaluationforcesyoutothinkabouttheunderlyingcharacteristicsofthefirm,andunderstanditsbusiness.Ifnothingelse,itbringsyoufacetofacewiththeassumptionsyouaremakingwhenyoupayagivenpriceforanasset.9DisadvantagesofDCFvaluationnSinceitisanattempttoestimateintrinsicvalue,itrequiresfarmoreinputsandinformationthanothervaluationapproachesnTheseinputsandinformationarenotonlynoisy(anddifficulttoestimate),butcanbemanipulatedbythesavvyanalysttoprovidetheconclusionheorshewants.nInanintrinsicvaluationmodel,thereisnoguaranteethatanythingwillemergeasunderorovervalued.Thus,itispossibleinaDCFvaluationmodel,tofindeverystockinamarkettobeovervalued.Thiscanbeaproblemfor•equityresearchanalysts,whosejobitistofollowsectorsandmakerecommendationsonthemostunderandovervaluedstocksinthatsector•equityportfoliomanagers,whohavetobefully(orclosetofully)investedinequities10WhenDCFValuationworksbestnThisapproachiseasiesttouseforassets(firms)whose•cashflowsarecurrentlypositiveand•canbeestimatedwithsomereliabilityforfutureperiods,and•whereaproxyforriskthatcanbeusedtoobtaindiscountratesisavailable.nItworksbestforinvestorswhoeither•havealongtimehorizon,allowingthemarkettimetocorrectitsvaluationmistakesandforpricetorevertto“true”valueor•arecapableofprovidingthecatalystneededtomovepricetovalue,aswouldbethecaseifyouwereanactivistinvestororapotentialacquirerofthewholefirm11RelativeValuationnWhatisit?:Thevalueofanyassetcanbeestimatedbylookingathowthemarketprices“similar”or‘comparable”assets.nPhilosophicalBasis:Theintrinsicvalueofanassetisimpossible(orclosetoimpossible)toestimate.Thevalueofanassetiswhateverthemarketiswillingtopayforit(baseduponitscharacteristics)nInformationNeeded:Todoarelativevaluation,youneed•anidenticalasset,oragroupofcomparableorsimilarassets•astandardizedmeasureofvalue(inequity,thisisobtainedbydividingthepricebyacommonvariable,suchasearningsorbookvalue)•andiftheassetsa