讲义三市场竞争和对策(长江商学院陶志刚)

管理经济学陶志刚1Competitivedynamics市场竞争和对策管理经济学陶志刚2Shrimpgame捕虾游戏Threefirms(A,BandC)inanisland:eachincursacostof$5perpoundofshrimp,andeachcancatchatmost75poundsperday共有三家捕虾公司,每家公司每天最多能捕75磅虾,捕每磅虾的成本为$5Thepriceoftheshrimp:P=45-0.2(A+B+C)市场能承受的价格(P)取决于总供应量(A+B+C)管理经济学陶志刚3StrategicSituations需要策略性思考的情景partiesactivelyconsidertheinteractionswithoneanotherinmakingdecisions一方做决策时会主动将另一方的反应纳入考虑gametheory–asetofideasandprinciplestoguidestrategicthinking博弈论—指导策略性思考的一套理念和原理equilibriumconcepts均衡的概念representativegames典型的博弈管理经济学陶志刚4JohnNash美丽心灵管理经济学陶志刚5NashEquilibrium纳什均衡GiventhattheotherplayerschoosetheirNashequilibriumstrategies,eachpartyprefersitsownNashequilibriumstrategy每一方在其他的对手选择他们的纳什均衡策略时,也会选择自己的纳什均衡策略•Optimality优化•Stability稳定管理经济学陶志刚6CompetitiveDilemma竞争的两难Pepsi百事可乐Raiseprice提价Discount打折Coke可口可乐Raiseprice提价C:3,P:3C:0,P:5Discount打折C:5,P:0C:1,P:1管理经济学陶志刚7Howtoavoidcompetition?如何降低竞争程度？Collusionamongfirmsthatproducesimilarproducts共谋Productdifferentiationandmarketsegmentation产品差异化和市场细分管理经济学陶志刚8CurrentGainv.FutureLoss眼前利益对长远利益Onlyinanongoingrelationshipisthereanabilitytopunish,andthusasticktomotivate.唯有在持续的关系中，才能保持惩罚的能力；惩罚能力反过来会维持良好的合作关系Problemwithfiniteperiodsoffuturetransactions未来交易期限的问题管理经济学陶志刚9NewWorldChallengesOld新世界生产商挑战旧世界生产商GlobalWineWars全球葡萄酒大战CaseStudy案例管理经济学陶志刚10Introduction简介Twodifferentwine-makingpracticesarecompetingforthe$90billionglobalwinemarket.Oldworldwineproducers(i.e.France,Italy,Germany):对旧世界生产商而言,酿酒是一门艺术It’sanart,notascience.We’recreatingproductsthatarecrafted,justasanartistorachefwouldcreate.NewWorldwinemakers(i.e.Australia,U.S.,Chile):新世界生产商注重创新,采用科学酿酒方法Webringatotalcommitmenttoinnovation….fromwinetopalate.管理经济学陶志刚11Differentpractices—Production生产Australian,American,andChileanwinemakersworkinsteady,hotweathersthatproduceregularharvestsandconsistentwines/freetoplant/controlleddripirrigation/mechanicalharvest/harvestintheevening/addingoakchipstowinethatisfermentinginsteelbarrels低成本，高稳产量BordeauxandBurgundyproducersmustdealwithunpredictableweather/terroir:mysticalcombinationofsoil,aspect,microclimate,rainfall,andcultivation/strictlimitsonwhattypesofgrapescanbegrowninaparticularregionandhowtheyareplantedandpicked/ageingthewineinoakbarrels神秘组合管理经济学陶志刚12Differentpractices—Marketing营销Frenchsystemoflabelingbygeographicorigin/mystifyinglabels/Bordeauxaloneboasts20,000differentproducers/cannotaffordtohavetheglobalmarketing/emphasizeonupper-classescustomerswhoshopinspecializedwineshop缺乏规模经济，主攻高端市场Labelbyvarietyofgrape/clear-cutlabels(eightgroupingsinNewYorkCity)/ThreeAustraliancompaniesdominate80%ofhomemarket/canaffordtohaveglobalmarketing/focusonnewdrinkerswhoshopwinesinsupermarkets具有规模经济，瞄准大众市场管理经济学陶志刚13Differentpractices—Distribution配送LargewinecompaniesfromtheNewWorldtypicallycontrolthefullvaluechain,extractingmarginsateverylevelandretainingthebargainingpowerwithretailers.价值链垂直一体化IntheOld,thetasksofgrapegrowing,winemaking,distribution,andmarketingwerehandledbydifferententities./Traditionallywinewassoldinbulktomerchanttraders—negociantsinFrance—whothenblendedandbottledtheproductandalsohandledtheexports.生产各环节分散管理经济学陶志刚14ToleadorNottoLead?先下手为强还是后发制人?TheU.K.CreditCardIndustry英国信用卡行业Boeingv.Airbus波音对空中客车BSBv.SKY英国广播卫视对天空卫视管理经济学陶志刚15PricingforProfit如何定价才能获利TheU.K.CreditCardIndustryintheLate1980s1980年代末的英国信用卡行业CaseStudy案例管理经济学陶志刚16CrisisintheUKCreditCardIndustry英国信用卡行业的危机Hugelyprofitableinthemid1980s:frominterestchargedtocardholdersonunpaidbalancesandfeespaidbyretailers在1980年代中期利润丰厚，收入来自未付帐款的利息和零售商的付费injeopardybyearlyspringof19891989年春岌岌可危管理经济学陶志刚17CausesoftheChanges情况变化的原因Manyofthesmallerbankswerebeginningtoenterthecreditcardbusiness,andasaresultthefeespaidbyretailersweredropping.Ontheotherhand,thecostofmoneywasincreasing.Finally,theproportionofoutstandingbalancessubjecttointerestwasdecreasing,from41.5%in1984to34.0%in1988(36.9%forLloydsv.31.8%forBarclays).许多较小的银行开始经营信用卡业务,零售商的付费随之减少。同时，货币成本增加。未付帐款的比例缩减：从1984年41.5%到1988年的34.0%(Lloyds36.9%而Barclays31.8%).管理经济学陶志刚18LeaderorFollower?先发还是后制?Inearly1989,Barclaysannounceditwasconsideringtheintroductionofaflatfeeforitscreditcards1989年初，Barclays宣布它正在考虑收取信用卡年费In8/89’,Lloydsannouncedthat,startingFebruary1,1990,itwouldchargeafeeof12poundsandreducedinterestratefrom29.8%APR(annualpercentagerate)to26.8%APR.Barclays’response:“Wehavenoplanstointroduceanannualfeeatthisstagethoughwehavebeenthinkingaboutit.”89年8月，Lloyds宣布自90年2月1日起收取12英镑的年费，并降低利息，从29.8%的年利率降至26.8%。Barclays的反应是：我们还在考虑.管理经济学陶志刚19Boeingvs.Airbus波音对空中客车CaseStudy案例管理经济学陶志刚20CommercialAircraft民用飞机Economiesofscaleandscope规模经济及范围经济Ittakesatleast12yearsand$15billiontotakeanewairlinerfromdrawingboardtotestflight.Eachdoublingofproductionisreckonedtocutafifthoffthecost.Technologycanbespreadacrossafamilyofproducts.一种新型的客机开发,从构想到试飞至少需要投入150亿美元花费12年的时间.产量每增加一倍,其平均生产成本就可以降低五分之一.不同产品类型之间还可以技术共享.Highindustryconcentration高度产业集中化BoeingandAirbus波音和空中客车管理经济学陶志刚21Boeing波音公司FromB17sandB29sofWWIItoB52softheColdWar;spilloverfromdefensebusinesstocommercialaircraft从二战时期的B17和B29系列到冷战时期的B52系列;从国防订单拓展到民用飞机Threetime