经济发展战略与公平、效率的关系

1No.C20020072002515,1008712110511999GNP2GINI30.4041999GNP15000GNP(i)(ii)(iii)56WorldBankWorldDevelopmentReport2000-2001,Oxford:OxfordUniversity,20011GINI2GNPPPPGNPGNP0.9663GNP3GINIGINIGINIWorldBankWorldDevelopmentReport2000-2001,Oxford:OxfordUniversity,2001,pp.283pp.320-32140.4GINI510000800063GillsGills,Perkins,RoemerSnodgrass1987Ch.47(Varian1992)Feldstein1998……GINIFeldstein1998pp.112ULewis1954Schultz1964741918-1919(RanisandFei1961)20%60%U(Kuznets1955)Paukert(1973)5611:Paukert1965GINIGINI1000.4190.33-0.51101-2000.4680.26-0.50201-3000.4990.36-0.62301-5000.4940.30-0.64501-10000.4380.38-0.581001-20000.4010.30-0.5020010.3650.34-0.39Paukert1973ChenerySyrquin(1975)1950-1970Ahluwalia(1976)8FeiRanisKuo(1979)19501970GINI19500.5319700.33FieldsJakubson(1994)U3520URay1998pp.23U40%20%86040146GNP19705UUUGINI92PennWorldTable5.6SummersHanston1991198519701992DeiningerSquire(1996)GINIU2101111970-1992PennWorldTable5.6GINIDeiningerSquire(1996)GINIDeiningerSquire(1996)AcceptDeiningerSquire(1998)PanelDeiningerSquire1996URay1998pp211-2179AmartyaSen197310111612Solow1956GINI0.53200.33Robustiiiiii12719992002199920021313PerkinsandYusuf1984,chap.61980GINI0.32814(2002)15Lin1999;20022002Ying19951983GINI0.3149(Datt1995)14200215Lin,JustinYifu,DevelopmentStrategyandEconomicConvergenceTheInauguralD.GaleJohnsonLecture,DepartmentofEconomics,theUniversityofChicago,May14,20019//////1999/16McKinnon1973Shaw161019941999(Pearsonetal.1969;Romer1994)11171712/2002/12002TCI)1(..................................................*⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛=⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛LKFLKiiTCI//13)2......(........................................)/()/(LKLKTCIii=TCI*TCI1K/L=0)3(..................................................*⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛=⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛LKLKiiww1K/L=018//w0*TCI)4...(..............................)/()/(**w==LKLKTCIii*TCITCI19)5..(....................*w-=-=TCITCITCIDSDS=0DS0DS0DS02GINI18K/L=00119TCI*146GINIi,ttGINICDSi,ttGINIi,tDSi,taXwDSw1K/L=06666C=C-aw6320(1996,p567-571))''6..(..........',,eba+++=XTCICGINItiti)'6..(..........)(,,ebwa++-+=XTCICGINItiti)6..(..........,,eba+++=XDSCGINItiti15(tiGDPPC,)tiGDPPC,1_U23tiCORR,tiBQ,JeffreyD.SachsAndrewM.Warne199723DeiningerSquire(1998)16Samuelson1948Krugman,1997tiOPEN,GDPWilliamEasterlyHairongYu20006424tiCORR,tiBQ,tiCORR,tiBQ,TimeInvariantI24HausmanPanel23LM23IIIIVVLMOLS1_11_2234OLS17tiCORR,tiBQ,OPEN25II3618HausmanTCI1%tiGDPPC,tiGDPPC,1_2536TCI-0.65TCI-0.618tiGDPPC,tiGDPPC,1_VI36Hausman18HausmanTCI5%18R2-0.088619236IbIIbIIIaIVbVbVIa9.566.5336.836.176.6034.62(0.000)***(0.000)***(0.000)***0.000***(0.000)***(0.000)***TCI0.150.300.370.210.46(0.063)*(0.000)***(0.092)*(0.032)**(0.026)**IGINI0.7910.810.810.80(0.000)***(0.000)***0.000***(0.000)***GDPPC-0.30E-30.82E-5-0.85E-6(0.106)0.906(0.990)GDPPC_12399.13373.61547.3(0.358)0.004***(0.288)CORR1.25(0.000)***BQ-1.45(0.000)***OPEN-0.021(0.0102)**R20.81700.79470.8942d0.79220.79590.8938dLM1.470.60973.421.560.89643.2LMp(0.225)0.440(0.000)0.211(0.345)(0.000)Hausman1.600.848.592.592.264.09Hausmanp(0.901)(0.657)(0.035)0.459(0.689)(0.043)290LM1_1Hausman******10%5%1%a:b:d:R220318IbIIbIIIcIVbVbVIc2.333.8543.738.008.5342.09(0.471)(0.022)**(0.000)***0.001***(0.000)***(0.000)***TCI0.270.230.440.190.44(0.017)**(0.005)***(0.044)**(0.057)*(0.026)**IGINI0.910.890.890.88(0.000)***(0.000)***0.000***(0.000)***GDPPC-0.24E-3-0.73E-3-0.71E-3(0.460)0.005***(0.005)***GDPPC_1-1989.1-1846.4-3457.5(0.520)0.300(0.078)*CORR0.39(0.363)BQ-0.37(0.386)OPEN0.01(0.586)R20.84610.8427-0.05810.84830.8538-0.0886LM0.180.12432.380.030.00459.26LMp(0.672)(0.725)(0.000)0.864(0.997)(0.000)Hausman0.630.403.185.244.000.00Hausmanp(0.987)(0.817)(0.365)0.155(0.406)(0.991)108LM1_2Hausman******10%5%1%b:c:21Lin200136Ahluwalia,M.(1976),Inequality,PovertyandDevelopment,JournalofDevelopmentEconomics6,307-342.Chenery,H.B.,andM.Syrquin(1975),PatternsofDevelopment,1950-1970.London:OxfordUniversityPress.Datt,Gaurav(1995),IncomeInequalityinIndia,TheWorldBank,WashingtonDC,mimeo.Deininger,K.,andL.Squire(1996),“ANewDataSetMeasuringIncomeInequality”,WorldBankEconomicReview,10,565-591.Deininger,K.,andL.Squire(1998),“NewWaysofLookingatOldIssues:InequalityandGrowth”,JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,57,259-287.Easterly,WilliamandH.Yu(2000),“GlobalDevelopmentNetworkGrowthDatabase”,2000,(1998),“IncomeInequalityandPoverty”,NBERworkingpaper,No.6770.22Fei,John,Ranis,Gustav,Kuo,ShirleyW.Y.(1979),GrowthwithEquity:TaiwanCase,NewYork:OxfordUniversityPress.Fields,G.S.,andG.H.Jakubson(1994),NewEvidenceonKuznetsCurveMimeograph,DepartmentofEconomics,CornellUniversity.Gills,M.,Perkins,D.H.Roemer,M.andSnodgrass,M.(1987),DevelopmentEconomics,W.W.NortonandCompany.HeniszWitoldJ.2001,TheInstitutionalEnvironmentforEconomicGrowth”,EconomicsandPolitics12(1),1-31.Krugman,PaulR.(1997)“InternationalEconomics”,pp.45,Addison-WesleyPress.Kutznets,S.(1955),“EconomicGrowthandIncomeInequality”,AmericanEconomicReview,45,1-28.Lewis,ArthurW.(1954),“Economic