061麦肯锡--中国物流市场研究报告+英文(1)

China’sEvolvingLogisticsLandscapeMcKINSEY&COMPANY,GREATERCHINAOFFICEStephenShawandFrankWangJuly27,2001Theauthorsthankthefollowingcolleaguesfortheircontributionstothiswhitepaper:StaffanHertzell,DianaHuang,StevenPei,CynthiaWangPrefaceThisdocumentistheresultofaneffortbyMcKinsey&Company'sGreaterChinapracticetoassesstheimpactofChina'supcomingaccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganisationonthecountry’slogisticsandtransportationsector,asectorthatwillplayakeyroleinChina’songoingeconomicexpansion.Inthiswhitepaper,wepresentanoverviewofChina'slogisticsandtransportationsector,includingrecentdevelopmentsinthearea,describetheimpactofcurrenteconomicgrowthonthesectorandoutlineaperspectiveonapproachingthemarketinwaysthatincreasethechancesofsuccess.McKinsey&Companyistheworld’sleadinginternationalconsultingfirmassistingleadingcorporationsandselectednon-profitinstitutionsinresolvingcomplexmanagementchallengesinstrategy,organizationandoperations.Aprimaryaspectofourmissionistoprovideobjectivecounselinthefaceofthemostcomplexchange.ThoseseekingspecificadvicerelatingtothetopicsdiscussedinthiswhitepapershoulddirecttheirinquiriestoStephenShaw,aseniorpartnerinMcKinsey&Company’sHongKongoffice,orStaffanHertzell,aseniorspecialistinTransportandLogisticsinourBrusselsOffice.3China’sEvolvingLogisticsLandscapeEconomicreformsinChinahavealreadybroughtfar-reachingchangetomanysectorsofitseconomy.Now,it’stheturnofthelogisticsandtransportationsector:ongoingeconomicgrowthandChina’supcomingentryintotheWorldTradeOrganisationcouldverywelltransformthiscurrentlyunderdevelopedsector.Whilegrowthisstimulatingdemand,WTO-entrypromisessignificantspillovereffectsonthesectorfromthefurtherexpansionandopeningoftheeconomy.Arapidexpansionofthesectorisclearlyonthecards.Already,theChinesegovernmenthasnamedlogisticsastrategicindustryandhascommittedtopromotinginvestmentinanumberoflogisticscentresacrossthecountry.Retailchannelsareconsolidatingandmodernizinginthetoptiercities,China’smajorconsumptioncentres,andspreadingtothenexttierofcities.Expresshighwayslinkingthemajorcitiesarebeingcompletedandprofessionaltruckersareemerging.Seeingtheemergingopportunity,newlyestablishedandincumbentserviceprovidersareaggressivelymovingtoprovideupgradedlogisticsandtransportationservices.Today,playersinthesectorincludestate-ownedenterprises(SOEs),localorjoint-venturethird-partylogisticsfirms,foreignentrantsandemergingdomesticplayersinmanufacturinganddistribution.Butcapturingtheemergingopportunitieswillnotbeeasy.Apartfromtheusualchallengesofbuildingrelationshipsandnetworks,playersmayfacepolicyshifts,duetosocialorothercompulsions,orcomeupagainstlocalprotectionismthatoftenresultsinbiggapsbetweencentralgovernmentpolicyandlocalpractices.Broadlyspeaking,playersshouldlookforopportunitiesintwomainareas:efficient,networkedtransportationandwarehousingservicesandtruethird-partylogisticssolutions.Thosethatmovefastenough,havetoleranceforhighrisk,andbuildontheiruniquestrengthswilleventuallytriumph,giventherelativelybasicnatureofthelogisticsandtransportationsectortoday.4LOGISTICSSERVICESHAVEREMAINEDELEMENTARYUntilnow,theChinesemarketforlogisticsandtransportationhasremainedfairlyunderdeveloped.Localcompanieshavehadneitherthedesirenorsophisticationtoseekreallogisticssolutions.MostChinesemanufacturershaveremainedafragmentedlot,partofacellulareconomywithlimited,localdistributionareas.Infact,logisticsdemandhasremainedrestrictedtothecentralandcoastalprovinces,aroundthemajorcitiesofGuangdong,ShanghaiandBeijing/Tianjin,wherecargomovementandindustryoutputarehighlyconcentrated,whichhavethetop8oceanportsandthetop7riverportsinChina,andwhosepeopleenjoysomeofthehighestpercapitaincomesinthecountry(Exhibit1).Whileimport/exportactivitiesandsomefreightforwardinghavetraditionallybeenundertakenbystate-ownedplayerslikeSinotrans(ChinaNationalForeignTradeTransportationCorporation)orCosco(ChinaOceanShippingCompany),mostdomesticlogisticsandgoodstransportneedshavelargelybeenmetbytheSOEsthemselves,astheyhavehistoricallyownedandoperatedtheirowntruckstodelivergoodsdownstreamtodistributorsandwholesalers.Thesedistributorsandwholesalersinturnhaveboughtthefinishedgoodsandmovedthemtoconsumersthroughahighlyantiquatedandfragmentedretailtrade.Exhibit1TianjinBeijingHeilongjiangJilinLiaoningHebeiShandongFujianJiangxiAnhuiHubeiHunanGuangdongGuangxiShanghaiHenanShanxiHainanInnerMongoliaShaanxiNingxiaGansuQinghaiSichuanGuizhouYunnanTibetXinjiangJiangsuZhejiangTaiwanLOGISTICSANDTRANSPORTATIONDEMANDANDACTIVITIESARECONCENTRATEDINCENTRALANDCOASTALCHINALogisticsandtransportationdemandandactivitiesTop8oceanportsTop7riverportsSource:ChinaStatisticsYearbook;GovernmentIndustryStatisticsYearbooks;Provincial/CityYearbooks;BeijingHuatongrenMarketResearchDalianQinhuangdaoQingdaoNingboGuangzhouShenzhenNantongWuhanZhangjiagangAnqingWuhuHangzhouNanjingNotsurprisingly,transportationandtransport-relatedservicesservingdomesticneedshaveremainedrudimentary,asdescribedbelow.5nShipping:ShippingwithinandacrossChinaissuitedmainlytothetransportofcommodities—itisveryrarelyagoodsolut