几种常用定量风险评价方法的比较

代利明,陈玉明(昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,昆明650093):,6,6,:;;:X913:A:16711556(2006)04009504ComparisononSeveralFamiliarMethodsofQuantitativeRiskAssessmentDAILiming,CHENYuming(FacultyofLandResourceEngineering,KunmingUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Kunming650093,China)Abstract:Therearemanyquantitativemethodsontheriskassessment.Inourcountrysixkindshavebeenextensivelyapplied.Thecompleteanalysisandcomprehensivecomparisonofthesesixmethodscanprovidethebasisforthefurtherresearchandtherationalchoiceofassessmentmethodsinthepracticalwork.Keywords:riskassessment;quantitative;comparison02090,(QRA),[1],,,,1,,,(QRA)[2](),,,(),()[3]1.1,,()134200612安全与环境工程SafetyandEnvironmentalEngineeringVol.13No.4Dec.2006:20060602:(1978),,,1.2()(),,()1.3,(),,,,,,22.1(EventTreeAnalysis,ETA)(),,!!,,,,,,1,n,(n-1),,2.2(FaultTreeAnalysis,FTA)[4]1ETAFig.1ThemodelofETA,,,,,(),,,(),,2,,,,2.3,,,(F&EI),,,(F&EI),,2FTAFig.2ThemodelofFTA96安全与环境工程第13卷,,33Fig.3TheevaluationprocessofDowChemicalCompanyFireandExplosionIndex2.4,,,[5]:,,!!,,(1),,,2.5,,,,,:::,,:,5,ABCD,10520,5,:,:,,:2.6,,,,,,(),107,,44Fig.4Themodeloftheevaluationprocessoftheflammable,explosive,poisonousanddangeroussources97第4期代利明等:几种常用定量风险评价方法的比较2.76,116Table1Thecomparisonofsixkindsoffamiliarquantificationalriskassessment,,,,;,,,,;,,,,,,;,,,,;,,,,,1ETAFTA,;,,,;3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6,,1978,;,,,,:[1].[J].,2004,4(2):89-91.[2],,.[M].:,2005.8-9.[3],,.[M].:,2004.144-145.[4],.[M].:,2002.[5],,.[M].:,2004.133-134.:(1963),,,Email:[e-mail]98安全与环境工程第13卷