联合国AI报告发展40英文原版

Empoweredlives.Resilientnations.Writtenby:Development4.0OpportunitiesandChallengesforAcceleratingProgresstowardstheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsinAsiaandthePacificDevelopment4.0OpportunitiesandChallengesforAcceleratingProgresstowardstheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsinAsiaandthePacificAboutthisreportThisdocumentbuildsonaresearchprogrammeundertakenbyTheEconomistIntelligenceUnitbetweenJanuaryandMay2018andsupportedfinanciallybytheUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP).TheviewsandopinionsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseofTheEconomistIntelligenceUnitanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficialpositionoftheUNDP.TheforewordandpolicyrecommendationssectionswerewrittenbytheUNDP.AboutTheEconomistIntelligenceUnitTheEconomistIntelligenceUnit(TheEIU)istheresearcharmofTheEconomistGroup,publisherofTheEconomist.Astheworld’sleadingproviderofcountryintelligence,wehelpgovernments,institutionsandbusinessesbyprovidingtimely,reliableandimpartialanalysisofeconomicanddevelopmentstrategies.ThroughourPublicPolicy,Economics,andPoliticsConsultingpractice,weprovideevidence-basedresearchforpolicymakersandstakeholdersseekingmeasurableoutcomesinfieldsrangingfromgenderandfinancetoenergyandtechnology.Weconductresearchthroughinterviews,regulatoryanalysis,quantitativemodellingandforecasting,anddisplaytheresultsviainteractivedatavisualisationtools.Throughaglobalnetworkofmorethan350analystsandcontributors,TheEIUcontinuouslyassessesandforecastspolitical,economicandbusinessconditionsinover200countries.Formoreinformation,visit(UNDP)UNDPpartnerswithpeopleatalllevelsofsocietytohelpbuildnationsthatcanwithstandcrisis,anddriveandsustaingrowththatimprovesthequalityoflifeforeveryone.Onthegroundinnearly170countriesandterritories,weofferglobalperspectiveandlocalinsighttohelpempowerlivesandbuildresilientnations.Pleaseusethefollowingwhencitingthisreport:TheUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme2018.Development4.0:OpportunitiesandChallengesforAcceleratingProgresstowardstheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsinAsiaandthePacific.TheEconomistIntelligenceUnitStefanoScuratti,ProjectDirector:[e-mail],SeniorMarketingExecutive:[e-mail]opmentProgramme(UNDP)JacoCilliers,Chief–RegionalPolicyandProgrammeforAsiaandthePacific:[e-mail],RegionalEconomicsSpecialist,AsiaandthePacific:[e-mail],RegionalEconomicsSpecialist,AsiaandthePacific:[e-mail],CommunicationsSpecialist,AsiaandthePacific:[e-mail],RegionalCommunicationsAdvisorforAsiaandthePacific:[e-mail]2Contents2Aboutthisreport4ForewordbytheUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme14Automationandthefutureofwork:Contestednarratives20ImpactsofautomationandAIinAsia24Impactonmanufacturing27Impactonservices29Impactonindividuals:AnSDGperspective35Mitigatingfactors44RespondingtotheopportunitiesandchallengesofautomationandAI47Economic58Social67Environmental72Conclusion:Technologicalchangeandtheopennessofthefuture76PolicydirectivesbytheUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme80Listofabbreviations81References3RapidadvancesintechnologywillprofoundlyaffectsocietiesinAsia-Pacific.TheFourthIndustrialRevolution—characterisedbyinnovationssuchasartificialintelligence,automation,andbio-technology—islikelytotransformexistingsystemsofproduction,management,andgovernance.Howcountriesembraceandadapttothecomingtechnologicalchangeswilldeterminewhethertheymeetthepromiseofthe2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopmentandachievetheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs).ForewordbytheUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgrammeAI4Development4.0:OpportunitiesandChallengesforAcceleratingProgresstowardstheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsinAsiaandthePacificUNDPpartneredwiththeEconomistIntelligenceUnit(EIU)toreviewthelikelyimplicationsofthistechnologicalrevolutiononprogresstowardstheSDGsintheAsia-Pacificregion.Theresultinganalysisidentifiestheregion’sriskflashpoints,thechannelsthroughwhichrisksmightconstrainSDGprogress,and,critically,thewaysthatnewtechnologiesmightbeharnessedtoadvanceratherthanhindersustainabledevelopment.TheFourthIndustrialRevolutionisalsoconvergingwithothermega-trends,includingrapiddemographictransitionandgrowingconsequencesofclimatechange.Thisconvergenceispushingcountriestofundamentallyreconsiderandadaptexistingarrangementsbetweengovernmentsandcitizens.Thisincludesassessingthesuitabilityofcurrentapproachesto,amongotherthings,democraticgovernance,thedefinitionofwork,privacy,basiccitizenrights,andtheobligationsofthestatetoitspeople.Governmentshaveanopportunitytopro-activelyembracethismomentandthecallfortransformativechange.Reactivepoliciesandinstitutionswillbeincreasinglyill-suitedtomanagetheimpactoftechnologicalinnovationortocaptureitspotentialtohelpstrengthenapproachestosustainabledevelopment.Inthecomingera,thosegovernmentsmorelikelytoaccelerateprogresstowardstheSDGswillbethosethatactivelydesignpoliciesandinstitutionsthataremorepredictive,adaptable,andresponsivetocitiz