城市生活垃圾产量预测模型

,,(,650093):19962001,GM(1,1)SSODMM,,:;;0,,,;GM(1,1)SSODMMGM(1,1),GM(1,1)GM(1,1)()(),,,,,199620011119962001[13]/t199636.2714199741.9366199857199958.3200082.93200183.31199620011,GM(1,1),1GM(1,1),,,,GM(1,1)SSOD2MM,5220036:(1976),,,20011GM(1,1)[6]:X(t)dx(t)dt+ax(t)=b1-1x(t)=ce-at+ba,c=x(t0)-baeat01-2(1)=(2)==(n-1)=eaea-1-1a1-3[x(k+1)-x(k)]+a[(1-)x(k)+x(k+1)]=b,k-|n|(1-4),tk=k(kN),S=0,as=0,1-3S=(as)=limaas(a)=12,(x(t3k),x(t3k))((1-s)x(k)+sx(k+1),x(k+1)-x(k)),kk-|n|aas+1=-SxysSxxsSxxs=n-1k=1(xsk-xs)(xk-x)Sxxs=n-1k=1(xsk-xs)2xsk=(1-s)x(k)+sx(k+1)xk=x(k+1)-x(k)xs=1n-1n-1k=1xskx=1n-1n-1k=1xk=x(n)-x(1)n-1(e-as+1k,x(k)),kKMs+1:^xx+1(t)=cs+1e-as+1t+bs+1cs+1=n-1k=1e-as+1k-1nn-1k=1e-as+1kx(k)-1nn-1k=1x(k)n-1k=1e-as+1k-1nn-1k=1e-as+1k2bs+1=1nn-1k=1x(k)-cs+1n-1k=1e-as+1kMs+1,,ss+1,,GM(1,1)SSODMM2GM(1,1)SSODMMGM(1,1)SSODMM,M3:^x3(t)=c3e-a3t+b3=-1353.157179e-01007797t+13761802343,22GM(1,1)SSODMM(t)q(k)(dret)199634.15,2.12140.058199744.58,-2.64340.063199854.93,2.070.036199965.20,-6.90.118200075.38,7.550.091200185.49,-2.190.026c=0.24pin(q)=0.008p=1pin(dret)=0.0653q(k)pin(q)pin(dret)cp,1996200101118,,c0.24,1,,c0.35,p0.95,[9]362200363GM(1,1)SSODMM(t)GM(1,1)SSODMM200295.522003105.472004115.352005125.142006134.862007144.512008154.082009163.582010173.003,20022010,GM(1,1)SSODMM,,,:[1],,:,20011[2],,,:[3],,:,19991[4]2002,,:,20021[5],-2,:,19991[6],,:,20011[7],GM(1,1).,19881[8],,.GM(1,1).,20001[9]..:,19861[10].GM(1,1).,19921[11]Mian-yunChen.Greysystemanditsdynamicmodeling.ProceedingIntern.AMSEConfer.Singles,Data,System,Cal2cutta(India),Dec.79,1992,AMSEPress,Vol.2,pp.89961[12]LiShuhua,wangYinao.Thegreypredicationofeffective2nessofstrutintensityofhydraulictressel.TheJournalofGREYSYSTEM,1994(2)1(:2003-09-17)PredicationmodelforurbanwasteoutputCHENJin2fa,NINGPing,HOUMing2ming(KunmingUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Kunming650093,China)Abstract:ThepaperdealswithGM(1,1)SSODMMgraymodelwhichcanbeusedinKunmingurbanwasteoutputforecast.AfteranalyzingthedatesofsolidwasteoutputofKunmingfrom1996to2001andseveraloptimaion,themodelcanbeusedinforecastingonbasisofdates,whichdonotinclineordeclinecontinuouslyanditsaccu2racyaresatisfied.Theresultrevealsthatafterthreetimesoptimate,thismodelsaccuracycanreachfirstclassinforecastingofurbanwasteoutputting.Keywords:urban;wasteoutput;predicationmodel7220036