品牌、价格和促销对市场份额影响的模型研究

1∗CEOBuzzellandGale1987PIMSProfitImpactofMarketStrategy45030007080BellKeeneyandLittle1975MultiplicativeCompetitiveInteractionMCILogitMultinomialLogitMNLMCINakanishi1972NakanishiandCooper19741982MNLMCIMCICooperandNakanishi1988MarketShareAnalysis2004∗22004DiffusionModel2004MCIproductclasstititQQms=1msititQititQtt∑==mjjttQQ1j1…m11rangeconstraintsumconstraintlogicallyconsistentNaertandBultez1973McGuireandWeiss1976MarketingEffortModelKotler19844P’sAttractionModelBellKeeneyandLittle1975BKL3CooperandNakanishi1988tititAAms=2AititAtt∑==mjjttAA1j1…mtMCILogitMNLMCIMNLMCIMNLCooperandNakanishi1988P.36MCIMCIiKkkiikiXAεαβ⋅⋅=∏=1)exp(3expαiiβkkXkiikk1…Kεii32MCI∑∏∏===⋅⋅⋅⋅=mjjKkkjiKkkiikjkiXXms111)exp()exp(εαεαββ4msiXkαiβkCooperandNakanishi1988pp2830∗=∗+⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛+=⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛∑iKkkkikiiXXmsmsεβα1lnln5kXms,msiXkiααα−=∗ii)/ln(εεεii=∗εεilinearinparameters410elasticityelasticinelasticarcelasticitypointelasticityiikiikikiikiiimsXXmsXXmsmse⋅∂∂=∂∂=//646MCICooperandNakanishi1988P.34)1(ikimse−=β77015)(dXeXdXd7)(dXeXdXd)()1(dikiXmse−=β8X(d)00X(d)1)1(ikimse−=β78Xk1msi102003102912437POS5203171901100137/37124.610134521.21ABC0.263376()()()()ABCMCI5nestedmodelR22R20.624R20.60919R20.3510.6170.4840.2730.0070.14R20.4910.6170.1330.0077()()()ABCR2R2*p0.05**p0.01***p0.0011065αi*αiααα+=∗iiα34BaselineMarketShare8314.712.4%10.20.527330.916109.16100.91624.626.90.927109.270.40.4438324.692.375.457.8121.224.139.222.7218.5514.2429.835.939.650.412299.676.4160.131.851.80.460.370.290.600.120.199()()()()ABC4101231MCIMCIMCI1137crosseffects)()()()()()()1()1()()()()()()(diXdXiXddXiXXiiddiiXmseXemseXXemseemsmsXXmsedddddd−=⋅⋅−=⋅∂∂⋅⋅∂∂=⋅∂∂=ββdifferentialeffects197R20.65011200413622004121223200464Bell,D.E.,R.L.KeeneyandJ.D.C.Little,1975,“AMarketShareTheorem,”JournalofMarketingResearch,12(2):136-141.5Buzzell,R.D.andB.T.Gale,1987,ThePIMSPrinciples:LinkingStrategytoPerformance,NewYork,NY:TheFreePress.6Cooper,L.G.andM.Nakanishi,1988,MarketShareAnalysis:EvaluatingCompetitiveMarketingEffectiveness,Norwell,Mass:KluwerAcademicPublisher.7Kotler,P.,1984,MarketingManagement:Analysis,PlanningandControl,FifthEdition,EnglewoodCliffs,NJ:PrenticeHall.8McGuire,T.W.andD.L.Weiss,1976,“LogicallyConsistentMarketShareModelsII,”JournalofMarketingResearch,13(3):296-302.9Naert,P.A.andA.Bultez,1973,“LogicallyConsistentMarketShareModels,”JournalofMarketingResearch10(3):334-340.10Nakanishi,M.,1972,“MeasurementofSalesPromotionEffectatRetailLevel–ANewApproach,”Proceedings,SpringandFallConferences,AmericanMarketingAssociation,pp.338-343.11Nakanishi,M.andL.G.Cooper,1974,“MeasurementofSalesPromotionEffectattheRetailLevel–ANewApproach,”JournalofMarketingResearch,11(3):303-311.12Nakanishi,M.andL.G.Cooper,1982,“SimplifiedEstimationProceduresforMCIModels,”MarketingScience,1(3):314-322.