市场一体化与区域协调发展

3(510275)(510275):?,(),19902002,,,50%,:3CRPE,,,,(05300601)985;(05003285)1993,,;,,,(,1990)(,2002),(,2001),,,,,,,()?,,,,(,2001),Young(2000),19781997,,Young(2000),,,,,(,1990;,1998;,2001;,2002;,2002;,2003;75200512,2004;,2004),,,,,Young(2000)19781997,(2003)19782000,YoungYoung(2000)Park(2003)Young,,;(2005),2000(2003)1P4;(2002)(2003),(2004)(2002)(1998),,,,20,(,2004),,,,,,,,,,,,(,2002),(,2003),,,,,,,,,,,,Barro,(),,,19902002,,,50%;;;,,,()85:Baumoul(1986),Barroetal(1992)Mankiwetal(1992)Islam(1995),(Sala2i2Martin,1996)Temple(1999),QianandRoland(1998)()N,AB,AB:A={A}B={B},AB(1)AB=AB=(2)(1)(2),,;A,B,,(1)(2),,A(3A)git,t+T=ln(yit)+Xi(3A)(3A),yitgit,t+TitGDPtt+T;Xi=(lnxi1,lnxi2,...,lnxik)i();=(1,2,,K),,x1;AB,x2={xA2,xB2},:x1x2,HallJones(HallJones,1999),AB(SocialInfrastructure);,X1=(x3,x4,,xK),(3A)git,t+T=ln(yit)+1lnx1+2lnxA2+Xi11(3),=(3,4,,K)0,(3)Barro,(3),,(3),,Barroetal(1992)Mankiwetal(1992);,,(2002);,(2004),,,i,(git,t+T-g-it,t+T),-ii,Quah(1996),,,(),,AB,?iGDP95200512,,()(yit)Xi=(lnxi1,lnxi2,,lnxiK)1:AB,x1;AB,x1;,yi1(x3,,xK):AB,ABxA1xB1(xA1xB1),{xA1,xB1},AB{xA1}{xB1},{xA1}{xB1}(1)(2),x1AB,{xA2,xB2},xA2xB1AB{xA2}{xB2},{xA2}{xB2)(1)(2),x2GDP(yit),AByitA={yit|iA}B={yit|iB},ABGDP,AB,(2),,,AB,(2),,yit(x4,,xK)1,1,,,,AB,AB,1,,,1:1:,AB,x2(),,1:git,t+T-g-it,t+T1Tlnyit+Ty-it+T-lnyity-it:git,t+Titt+T,yit+T=yit(1+git,t+T)T,ln(1+git,t+T)=1Tln(yit+T/yit),,git,t+T1Tln(yit+T/yit),git,t+T-g-it,t+T1Tlnyit+Tyit-lny-it+Ty-it=1Tlnyit+Ty-it+Tyity-it=1Tlnyit+Ty-it+T-lnyity-ityit+TPy-it+TyitPy-iti-it+TtGDP,,1,(git,t+T-g-it,t+T),,i,(2)06:2:,AB,i1Tlnyit+Ty-it+T-lnyity-itc+lnyity-it+2dum+(Xi1-X-i1)1(4),c=0,dum,0;1:1(3),i-i,1Tlnyit+Ty-it+t-lnyity-itlnyity-it+1lnxi1x-i1+2lnxi2x-i2+(Xi1-X-i1)1x1,,ln(xi1Px-i1)=ln1=0,c=0dum=ln(xi2Px-i2),i,ln(xi2Px-i2)=ln(xA2PxA2)=0;,ln(xi2Px-i2)=ln(xA2PxB2)0,1,1,dum2,,,2,(dum),,(4),,2,,;,2,2,(4)(2004),:,,(4)Barro(4)(3),,,(3),;,(4),,,,,(4)Barro,,(4)(),,,,,;16200512McCallum(1995)EngelRogers(1996),AndersonWincoop(2003),;(4),Quah(1996)Barro,Barro,,P,,,,,,8()6(),,,20,(1),,,,,2,,11982,19841989,199214()14(),,199714,,,,151999,2001,,2003,,2004,;,:(2003)26:Dmurger(2002),2080,,,,(,2003,99)90,,(,2003,33)2003816(),,(4)1Tlnyit+Ty-it+T-lny-ity-it=Ii=1cidi+lnyity-it+2dum+3lnshhishh-i+4lnsis-i+(5)(5),cidi,EngelRogers(1996),di,,i1,0;shh14(86);sshhs,,,14,,(1),(5)14,14,40,;,,Barro,,40,22,dum,861,0,20,,;(1),2,,()GDP199020021998GDPGDP50,19992002(20002003)GDP,GDP,,,12(75)(5),66(C212=66)21(C27=21),10(C25=10),35(C15C17=35)()(5),19902002,22,,,(1),ln(y90),,19902002,,,,(1),19902002()dum01026,1%,19902002,,,,36200512http:PP(1992)EBA(extreme2bounds2analysis),,01026,,,(2)(4),ln(y90),1%;dum,1%,,,,,2:19902002(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)ln(y90)-0.014(-2.03)33-0.013(-2.01)33-0.027(-4.23)333-0.029(-4.34)333-0.018(-2.27)33-0.034(-4.18)333dum0.026(5.65)3330.024(6.51)3330.022(10.98)3330.023(12.14)3330.025(5.94)3330.016(4.03)333ln(shh)0.004(0.71)-0.005(-1.25)-0.008(-1.64)-0.006(-1.46)ln(s)0.052(9.16)3330.058(8.11)3330.033(3.07)3330.061(4.00)333…R20.6030.6030.7300.7340.6010.576N666666664556:y90shh121990GDPs1219901996;3333331%5%10%;T;White;,ln(s)1%,ln(shh),2090,,,2090,,,,,19902000,,,,,:,1035,45;,2135,562(5)(6),(4),(),,1,2090,141997,,,,(5)2,146:,1997,,1997,,3,1997,50%;(7)(10),:,ln(y),1990199619972002,,dum,,1990199601035,1997200201019,4517%,,,,4517%,,,,ln(shh),1990199601048,19972002-01044,1%,,,,,,,3:(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)1990199619972002ln(y)-0.012(1.84)3-0.025(-2.79)333-0.006(-0.70)-0.061(-4.87)333-0.058(-5.20)333-0.043(-3.92)333dum0.035(8.48)3330.027(5.30)3330.036(8.04)3330.019(3.63)3330.013(3.18)3330.021(3.20)333ln(shh)0.048(7.50)3330.044(7.44)3330.039(9.40)333-0.044(-7.94)333-0.047(-8.27)333-0.047(-9.66)333ln(s)-0.009(-1.02)0.002(0.29)-0.008(-0.87)0.144(10.1)3330.136(7.42)3330.077(3.78)333…R20.7200.7200.7130.8860.8100.720N665645665645:ln(y);s19901996199720021990199219901996;2,:45563(8)(11),,5119%,(3)(9)(12)),1997,4117%,56200512,0.457=(0.035-0.019)P0.035,,44:ln(y)dumln(shh)ln(s)ln(FDI)…R2N199019960.08(2.6)330.066(4.2)3330.009(0.4)0.032(1.5)-0.07(-2.4)330.8126619972002-0.06(-6.1)3330.035(13.5)333-0.03(-8.7)3330.11(9.6)3330.02(9.4)3330.93966:FDI,1990199850,19992002(20002003);2,4,,46%,,,,50%,,?,,,Barro,,,:19902002,;,,,1997,,,2004:,4,2002:,9AryeL.HHillman,2002:,()21Dmurger,2002:,9,2004:?,http:PP:,,1999:,,2003:,ScottRozelle,2002:,966:,,2090,,,,,2004:WTO,6,2004:,11,2004::,No.C2004015,2005:,4,2002:,,2004:,5,1990:,3,2004:,5,2001:,6,1998:,3,1998:,12,2003:,1Anderson,J.,andE.,Wincoop,2003,GravityWithGravitas:aSolutiontotheBorderPuzzle,AmericanEconomicReview,93,pp170192.Barro,R.andX.Sala2i2Martin,1992,Convergence,JournalofPoliticalEconomy,100,pp223251.Baumol,W.,1986,ProductivityGrowth,Convergence,andWelfare:WhattheLong2RunDataShow,AmericanEconomicReview,76,pp10721085.Engel,C.,andJ.,Roger,1996,HowWideIstheBorder?AmericanEconomicReview,86,pp11121125.Hall,R.andC.Jones,1999,WhyDoSomeCountriesProduceSoMuchMoreOutputperWorkerthanOthers?QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,114,P83116.Islam,N.,1995,Grow