全球资讯産业大未来变革探索

May9,2002/No.1(IT)10ITPCIAIT(FashionIT)PC(BusinessModel)(TRI)ITITITITTRI2010Source2002/05(200259)2IA-(PC)TRI10PCPCPC(IA)(FashionIT)PCPCPCSource2002/053-IT10ITPCIAIT(FashionIT)PC:(TRI)ITITITITTRI()-(PC)PCPC10Source2002/05IT(200259)4PCIT2000PC1.11,320TRI2010PC2.532,5003,000TRI10(NB)(DT)NBPCTRI2010NB1DT1.52()-(IA)10PCITIA(TRIIAIAIAIAIAIATRIIA)IAPC(SmartPhone)IAITIAITPCIAIA10DVDSTB(Set-Top-Box)IATRI10()PCIAPDAIAe-Book5()-IT(FashionIT)PCIAPCITSONYAIBOMITMediaLAB(Tomorrow'sToy)10(e-Toy)TalkingToyMP3ITe-ITPCIATRI2000IT55002010IT301,500()-(Server)1994-1995TRI2000IA52,00041,6002010IA103,000PC(200259)6TRI20005005002010PowerUsersTRI20101,0001,000()-PC(Mainframe)10(IDC)WebService-ITTRI:()1939-1984IBMSAP1981-1994(KillerApplication)WindowsOffice7IntelDellIT1995-2004(HeavyCommunicationUsers)YahooCiscoNokiaDoCoMoHinetSeednetTRI2005()Source2002/05(200259)82005-2015ITIAITIAITAOLSonySamsungIAIC()()1019801,00019903,000200019800.81990PC1003.3%20004504.5%10PCIAITPC20101,00020101,500-1,8005-6%9-IT()ITe-eITITITSource2002/05(200259)10-:()ITITCPUITSource2002/0511()CPUASICP3P464MB256MBCD-ROMDVD-ROMITCPUMobileCPU0.2um0.1umFloppyMemoryStick()Start-up()(200259)12-IT()(E-NewsE-StockIndustryDataBaseE-LearningonDemand)E-NewsE-BookMPEG2/MPEG4MP3Source2002/05IT13()AOLDoCoMoiModeInternetContentService(ICPISPASPIDCE-mail)(E-Library)IDC2005InternetService680MobileService400WebServiceWebServiceInteroperabilityOne-StopServiceIDC2007WebService340WebService-2010()2002TRI1.500(11,000)(4800)(600600)2.100-500(3,000450)LCDPanelCRTMonitorGameConsole100-1805,000-7,000(200259)143.DVD(DSC)PDADVDDSCDVD4,00080DSC2,50075PDAPDANB20021,50045()2010TRI2010:1():201021,50061,20011,000Source2002/05152(500):20105,0005003(200):10LCDDVDDSCGameConsoleIA2002004(100):50-1001003,000PDAE-BookSource2002/052010(200259)16-TRIIT()PCOEMODMIA(IA)iModeIAGameConsoleBusinessModelIAIAIC(KeyComponent)ITICSource2002/0517()1PC(Manufacturing-Centric)IA(Service-Centric)IT2PC(Dis-Integration)PCIAIT3PCIAIA()ITITPC(200259)18TRIPCSource2002/0519(200259)2002-2511-553102-2511-6768