科尔尼想象旅游业的未来英文版201715页

1WhatIf?ImaginingtheFutureoftheTravelIndustryWhatIf?ImaginingtheFutureoftheTravelIndustryFromthepoliticalandeconomicenvironmenttotechnology,demographics,andconsumerbehaviors,anarrayoftrendsaretriggeringatransformation.Fourscenariosassesswhatmightlieoverthehorizon.2WhatIf?ImaginingtheFutureoftheTravelIndustryweunderstandittoday,whichreliesheavilyoncustomersegmentation.Inthenot-too-distantfuture,personalizationwilluseartificialintelligencetolearnfromtheonlinebehaviorsofmillionsofpeople,minedata,andmeettheneedsofeachtravelerateverymoment.Theperfectlypersonalizedexperiencemayevenbeabletopreemptatraveler’swishesanddeliveritinawaythatismoreusefultothetraveler.However,eveniftechnologymatures,personalizationstillfacesnumerousobstacles.Willgovern-mentsandregulatorsallowconsumerdatatobesharedbetweencountriesortradingblocs?Andiftheydo,willbusinessesbepreparedtogiveuptheirproprietarydataforthecommongood?Whatifpersonalizedtraveloffers—whichbydefinitionareimpossibletoreproduceforthemassmarket—provetooexpensiveformostcustomers?Willthisputahalttotheonwardmarchoftechnologygiantsacrossthetravelworld?Thispaperreflectsthemostimportantinsightsfromourscenario-planningexercise.Wehopeithelpscompaniesacrossthetravelindustrybegintheirowndiscussionsabouthowtheyseetheirbusinessesdeveloping.WhatIf?Ourfourscenariosshedlightontheconditionsunderwhichthesetrendsmaycomeabout(seefigureonpage3).Onescenario—thecombinationofseamlesstravelandperfectpersonal-ization—wouldallowglobaltravelerstoembarkonjourneysinwhicheverydetail,fromthemodeoftransportationtothechoiceofpillowattheirdestination,wouldbematchedtotheirprefer-encesbyasoftwareprogram.Atthesametime,amoreinterconnectedandcollaborativetravelindustrywouldactonreal-timeinformationtooptimizepricingandoccupancyratesandreroutetravelersaroundtrafficgridlockandbadweathertodeliverthemsafelytotheirdestinations.TheBenefitsofScenarioPlanningforStress-TestingCompanyStrategyAmadeusandA.T.Kearneyundertookascenario-planningprojecttostudytheimpactofthedisruptivetrendsonvariousplayersinthetravelindustryaswellasonAmadeus’ownbusiness.Scenarioplanningallowscompaniestoaddressuncertaintyandtakeastructuredapproachtopossibleoutcomes.Intoday’svolatileandunpre-dictableworld,moreofA.T.Kearney’sclientsareusingscenarioplanningtofuture-proofandstress-testtheirstrategies.Thisapproachhasmanybenefits.Itcreatesabroadviewofthefutureandallowscompaniestouncoverorganizationalblindspots.Ittestsexistingplansagainstindustryoutlooksandprovidesanunderstandingof“noregret”movesandimperativesincompanystrategy.Anditintro-ducesamorerobuststrategicriskmanagementconversationthatcreatesalignmentwithintheorganizationthroughtheuseofcommonlanguageandoutlooks.Inthisproject,wefounditparticularlyvaluabletoincludeateamofseniorexternalexpertswhobroughtvisionarythinking,deeperunderstandingofthetravelvaluechainanditsplayers,andacreativeandprovocativeviewofwhatthefuturemaylooklike.Together,wediscussedmorethan70trendsthatcouldshapetheindustry,relyingonadeductiveapproachtocreateplausiblescenarios.Onemightask:“Nowthatyouhavedescribedthescenarios,howdoyouknowifaparticularfutureisdeveloping?”Oneofthemostimportantoutcomesofscenarioplanningistheabilitytoidentifytrendsthatsignalthedevelopmentofaparticularscenario.Monitoringthesetrendsandtakingappropriateactionallowsbusinessestoforeseeupcomingdisruptions.3WhatIf?ImaginingtheFutureoftheTravelIndustryHowlikelyisthisvisionofthefuture?Andhowsoonmightitarrive?Itisclearwearenotthereyet.Ourremainingthreescenariosexaminetheindustryenvironmentsthatmightemerge,dependingonwhichpolitical,economic,andtechnologicalforcesholdswayinthenearfuture.Thetravelindustry,liketheworldinwhichwelive,isnotstatic.Thesescenariosarefluid,andtheindustrywilllikelymovebetweenthemintheyearsahead.Atthesametime,theimpactoftheforcesatplaywillnotbeuniform.Thispaperaimstohelpourmanypartnersinthetravelecosystemidentifythechallengesthatlieaheadinordertobebetterprepared.Scenario1:PicassoGlobaleconomicprosperitydrivesgrowthinpersonalizedtraveloffers.However,growingnationalismandsecurityconcernsfragmenttheworld,andtheindustrydevelopsinalocalizedway.Wecallthisscenario“Picasso”toreflectitscubist,fragmented,andhighlypersonalizednature.Thisscenarioisverymuchliketheworldinwhichwenowlive—markedbyrisingpopulisminEuropeandtheUnitedStatesandheightenedsecurityconcerns,whichmakesmoretravelSource:A.T.KearneyanalysisFigureFourpossiblefuturesfortheglobaltravelindustrySeamlessPersonalizedMassmarketFragmentedBoschPicassoDaliWarhol•Globalrecessionslowsinnovationandpushesconsumerstowardstandardizedoers•Pervasivenationalismreturnsandleadstostringentregulationandprotectionistpolicies,includingsanctions•Terrorismdrivessecurityfears,whichinhibitthegrowthoftheapplicationprogramminginterfaceeconomy•Globaleconomicprosperitydrivesconsumerwealth,demandforpersonalization,andfundingofinnovation•Growingnationalismfragmentstheworld,andcountriesadoptprotectionistpoliciesassecurityconcernsincrease•Economicprosperityleadstogreaterconsumerwealthandawillingnesstopayforpersonalizedoers•The