桥水2019全球展望2019134页

OneGlendinningPlaceWestport,CT06880(203)226-3030Asgloballiquiditycontinuedtopullbacklastyear,almosteveryassetclassaroundtheworldfell.Thequestiongoingforwardiswhattheflow-throughwillbetogrowthandhowpolicymakerswillrespond.Withalmostnotighteningpricedin,anytighteningwouldbefasterthandiscounted,andevenapausewouldnotprovidemuchstimulation.Marketsarepricingearningstogrowatamoderatepace.Wethinktheseexpectationsaretoooptimistic,particularlyintheU.S.Whenthenextdownturncomes,itcouldbearealmess.Centralbankshavelittleroomtoeaseandhighlevelsofpoliticalconflictwillmakeaneffectivepolicyresponsedifficult.Forinformationaboutthedatasourcesusedtoinformtheanalysisinthisoutlookandotherimportantinformation,pleasereviewthe“ImportantDisclosuresandOtherInformation”locatedattheendofthepresentation.2CentralBankTightensRiskPremiumsFall&AssetsRiseRiskPremiumsRise&AssetsFallCentralBankEasesLiquidityTightensGrowthRisesGrowthSlowsLiquidityImprovesNowWEAREINTHELATECYCLE3THEGLOBALFLOWOFMONEYANDCREDITISROLLINGOVERThisexhibitisaconceptualillustration.Pleasereviewthe“ImportantDisclosuresandOtherInformation”locatedattheendofthispresentation.FINANCIALCRISISLIQUIDITYLiquiditycontractsLiquidityexpandsAbundantliquiditydiscountedPoorliquiditydiscountedTODAYAssetsriseVolETFs“Tradewar”RussiaLiquidityrollingoverTurkeyArgentinaBrazilItalyFall/Wintersell-off4ABUNDANTLIQUIDITYHADPUSHEDUPASSETPRICES-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%012345678910Global60/40PortfolioCumulativeExcessReturnsOverAll10-YearPeriodsSince1970(ln)Average2009-2018DatashownthroughDecember2018.Global60/40Portfoliorefersto60%capitalweightinglobalequitiesand40%capitalweightinglobalnominalbonds.5OverallTighteningIncludingQEasLargeasAnySince1982THEU.S.TIGHTENINGCYCLEHASBEENGRADUALBUTSIGNIFICANT17%18%19%20%21%22%23%24%25%201520162017201820192020FedBalanceSheet(%GDP)-3%0%3%6%9%12%15%18%19201930194019501960197019801990200020102020FedFundsRateincludingimpactofQETighteningEasing0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%201520162017201820192020202120222023USShortRateForwardPricing6FORTHEFIRSTTIMEIN18YEARS,THEPRIVATESECTORWILLDETERMINETHEPRICINGOFFINANCIALASSETS-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%1960197019801990200020102020GlobalCentralBankPurchasesofFinancialAssets(%WorldGDP)NextYearForwardestimateisbasedonBridgewateranalysis.7CREDITHASPARTIALLYOFFSETTHEPULLBACKINMONEY-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2000200320062009201220152018DevWorldNon-FinPrivateCreditCreation(%GDP)DeleveragingGradualrecovery0%1%2%3%4%5%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2008201120142017CentralBankMoneyCreationUSAShortRateQE1QE2QE3ECB&BoJQEFedRoll-Off;ECBPullbackANDTHEFINANCIALSYSTEMISRELATIVELYHEALTHYFORTHISSTAGEOFTHECYCLE-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%19701975198019851990199520002005201020152020BankLendingandFunding(%GDP,6mma)BankLendingFlowHotMoneyFundingFlow8AMIDSTTHISTIGHTENING,MOSTASSETSUNDERPERFORMEDIN2018NaturalGas9.2%Gold-4.6%Oil-17.6%BrazilGovtBonds2.5%BrazilEquities-5.7%SpainEquities-18.0%JapanGovtBonds1.6%UnitedKingdomGovtBonds-5.8%Nickel-18.3%KoreaSovrSpreads1.6%CanadaGovtBonds-6.8%CanadaEquities-18.6%BrazilSovrSpreads0.8%UnitedStatesEquities-7.1%Copper-19.4%IndiaGovtBonds0.6%AustraliaGovtBonds-7.2%ItalyEquities-19.5%ChinaSovrSpreads0.5%SpainSovrSpreads-7.7%Aluminum-19.5%UnitedStatesCorpSpreads-0.5%FranceSovrSpreads-8.1%KoreaEquities-22.6%RussiaSovrSpreads-0.6%EurolandCorpSpreads-8.4%Zinc-23.5%UnitedStatesGovtBonds-0.8%ItalySovrSpreads-9.8%GermanyEquities-23.5%MexicoSovrSpreads-0.8%IndiaEquities-12.9%ChinaEquities-28.3%RussiaEquities-1.7%AustraliaEquities-13.9%TurkeyEquities-43.8%KoreaGovtBonds-1.7%FranceEquities-14.9%TurkeyGovtBonds-48.9%MexicoGovtBonds-2.2%JapanEquities-15.2%GermanyGovtBonds-4.0%MexicoEquities-16.4%TurkeySovrSpreads-4.2%UnitedKingdomEquities-16.7%GlobalAssetsRankedby2018Performance(USDExcessReturns)DatashownthroughDecember31,2018.9MARKETSTYPICALLYLEADTHEECONOMYEquitymarketpeaksoftenfollowedbymanymonthsofcontinuedeconomicstrengthandearningsgrowth--butalsotighteningEquityMarketPeaksinTighteningCyclesYearofEquityPeakMonthsUntilEconomyPeaksNext12mEquityExcessReturnNext12mEarningsGrowthNext12mChginBondYield196612-15%6%-0.2%19689-8%-2%1.4%197211-24%20%0.3%19809-13%4%1.4%1983NoTurn-13%16%2.1%198719-16%23%-0.1%20001-19%-25%-1.0%20074-12%-12%-0.5%BasedonhistoricaldatafortheUS.10EQUITYWEAKNESSHASBEENDUETOFALLINGVALUATIONS,WHILEEARNINGSGREWMODESTLY80%85%90%95%100%105%110%115%Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18GlobalEquityMarketAction(IndexedtoJan2018)EquityPriceEPSP/ERatio-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18UnitedStatesPriceFwdEPSFwdP/E-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18EurolandPriceFwdEPSFwdP/E-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18ChinaPriceFwdEPSFwdP/EPlentifulliquidityandstrongearningsduring2017SofteningearningsgrowthandtightliquiditystartstodragpricesPullbackinliquiditywhileearningsarestillstrongcausespricestomovesideways11EmergingMarketsex-China000510152-5.0%-2.5%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%10.0%12.5%GrowthPotentialJapan000510152-7.5%-5.0%-2.5%0.0%2.5%5.0%GrowthPotenti